VZCZCXRO5156
RR RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKSO #0015/01 0790820
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200820Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL SAPPORO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0468
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0493
INFO RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 0207
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 0219
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 0218
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 0219
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 0509

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAPPORO 000015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EAP/J;  INR BEN GOLDBERG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: JA ECON PGOV
SUBJECT: IN NORTHERN JAPAN LOCAL POLITICS IS LOCAL: LOOKING AT THE 
UPCOMING AKITA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION 
 
¶1.      (U) Japan's latest politics and money scandal highlights 
in big round numbers the long and cozy relationship between 
construction companies and northern Japan politicians of both 
major political parties.  Names have been named, including aides 
to the sitting Akita governor, the colorful DPJ-affiliated 
Sukeshiro Terata, yet the Akita Prefecture gubernatorial 
election campaign will kick off on March 26 as a race between 
personalities and local loyalties, not as a referendum on 
national politics or illegal donations.  So far three local 
mayors have announced their candidacies - Akita Mayor Norihisa 
Satake (61), Kosaka Town Mayor Hiroshi Kawaguchi (61), and 
former Ugo Town Mayor Shoichiro Sato (56). 
 
¶2.      (U) Due to the collapse of opposition party alliances that 
traditionally supported local candidates against the ruling 
party (partly because of unhappiness with Governor Terata's 
budget politics), this election has some curious endorsements. 
Satake is supported by the ruling party LDP, the labor union 
stronghold Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation), largely 
made up of public employees, the minor opposition SDP, and the 
Sokka Gakkai affiliated, ruling coalition member, Komeito. 
Satake is in the lead at the moment, but there is no guarantee 
he will keep the advantage.  Kawaguchi is popular among Akita 
citizens who see him as a local hero who can revitalize the 
ailing economy. 
 
        Akita Prefecture ranks nationally 41st among 47 
prefectures in average income - about 59 percent of the Tokyo 
figure - and economic production is off more than 14 percent 
from last year. Unemployment and bankruptcies are also way up. 
Scandal cases do not really affect rural area voting behavior 
since they often benefit from infrastructure largesse. 
Independent voters, about 40 % of the eligible voters and mainly 
resident in Akita City, will be the deciding factor. 
 
The Candidates 
 
¶3.      (U) Representing the central, urban part of the 
prefecture, Satake, the 21st generation scion of the Satake clan 
which governed Akita in feudal Japan, is a former employee of 
the Akita Prefectural Government. He ran for governor with LDP 
endorsement and lost 12 years ago to Terata for a seat suddenly 
vacated in the wake of another money scandal directly involving 
the then incumbent who was an LDP member.  This time, Satake 
will run as an independent, although supported by the LDP and 
Komeito, and backers more usually found in the opposition camp: 
RENGO Akita and the SDP Akita Chapter.   He enjoys high name 
recognition from his "old money" family, as well as from his 
position as president of the National Mayors Association.  He 
stands to benefit most from the independent voting bloc. 
 
¶4.      (U)  From the north, Kawaguchi is famous in the prefecture 
for his Horatio Alger background and his "green" image.  Born 
into a farm family, he went to college in Tokyo and paid his way 
through by operating a street cart ramen noodle stand.  After 
returning home, he became a town assembly member in 1984 and 
mayor in 1990. He is now serving his 5th term.  Under his 
leadership, Kosaka Town has prospered by focusing on recycling: 
producing fertilizer from kitchen garbage, planting rape seed in 
unused plots of land to produce oil and alternative light diesel 
fuel, and extracting noble metals out of scrapped computers and 
other electronic equipment using technology from the obsolete 
mining industry that was the town's economic base in the past. 
By 2006, the average per capita income of Kosaka rose to second 
in the prefecture, up from 25th.  The town is financially 
self-sufficient from a steady corporate revenue base.  Kawaguchi 
can credibly claim that he, of all the candidates, can best see 
the world from the voters' point of view and cure the ailing 
prefectural economy. 
 
                (U) The LDP considered throwing their support behind 
the popular Kawaguchi.  But, after the DPJ announced their 
official support, with Governor Terata expected to follow with a 
personal endorsement, the LDP chose to support Satake instead. 
Kawaguchi has a base of non-partisan support including Komeito. 
Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, former Minister of Land, Transport, and 
Infrastructure, attended a Kawaguchi supporters' party held in 
Tokyo earlier this month.   Former LDP Lower House Member (and 
postal privatization opponent) Hosei Norota and his supporters 
openly back Kawaguchi.  The mayor will play to his "self-made 
man" persona and may attract independents by holding out the 
promise of change, Obama-style, his old-guard political backers 
notwithstanding. 
 
¶5.      (U) From the south, Sato, who, after graduating from an 
agricultural high school in Akita, studied agriculture in the 
 
SAPPORO 00000015  002 OF 002 
 
 
U.S. in the late Seventies on a Japanese government agricultural 
trainee program.  He became a Ugo Town assembly member at the 
age of 27, the youngest among assembly members at the time.  He 
ran for mayor and was elected, at 42, the youngest in the 
prefecture, in 1995.  He challenged Terata in 2005 on an LDP 
ticket, but lost.   Although he has farm appeal, Sato's dark 
horse candidacy will likely not amount to much. 
 
DPJ-Rengo Coalition Breaks Down over Public Employee Interests 
 
¶6.      (U) DPJ-supported Governor Terata's successful control of 
the past three elections, as well as his party's consistent 
showing in the 2005 Lower House and the 2007 Upper House races 
was primarily based on a strong campaign coalition between the 
DPJ Akita Chapter and the SDP Akita brokered by Rengo Akita. 
But this time, Rengo is putting its support behind the LDP 
candidate. 
 
                (U) Our sources at the local newspaper, Akita 
Sakigake, say that one of the reasons for the Rengo departure is 
their disgruntlement with the aggressive approach of Governor 
Terata who cut Prefectural government employee salaries to 
balance the budget.  The SDP, protective of the strongly leftist 
teacher union interests, is also displeased that the 
straight-talking Governor publicly disclosed the results of the 
national achievement tests for elementary and junior high school 
students. 
 
Political Parties in Disarray 
 
¶7.      (U) Although the Nishimatsu scandal has not created a 
public backlash in northern Japan, it has made everyone leery of 
inviting national-level politicians to stump for the candidates, 
throwing conventional campaign tactics into confusion. 
Currently, no DPJ executive members are scheduled to come 
although Party leader Ichiro Ozawa and acting leader Naoto Kan 
visited Akita several times during the election campaign period 
of the 2007 Upper House election and made several appearances 
last year.   Meanwhile, according to the LDP Akita Chapter, 
LDP-supported Satake has so far refused any campaign assistance 
from the LDP Tokyo Head Office, declining to have anything to do 
with the circle around the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Taro 
Aso.  LDP Election Campaign Strategy Headquarters Vice President 
Suga is scheduled to be in Yuzawa City, Akita on March 22 to 
support a LDP candidate running against the incumbent Japan 
Communist Party mayor.   Suga will pass through Akita City at 
that time, but is not making a special trip. 
 
        (U) The three candidates have not announced election 
pledges or manifestoes yet.  We expect economic issues, not 
political issues, will remain front and center in this race. 
WELTON