VZCZCXRO5080
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0148/01 0901256
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O P 311256Z MAR 09
FM RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0380
INFO RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0310
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0024
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA PRIORITY 0026
RUEHDIR/RPO DUBAI 0381

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000148 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CACS ECON IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE - WINDOW ON IRAN - MARCH 31, 
2009 
 
DUBAI 00000148  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence 
Office - Dubai, DOS. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. [S/NF] Roxana Saberi: Iranian-Americans as Diplomatic 
Leverage : As IRPO has reported and will report further septel, 
various spoilers in Iran facing the prospect that improved 
US-Iran ties will erode their standing within Iran have taken 
deliberate and well-timed steps to preempt such improved ties. 
Over the past several months as prospects for improved US-Iran 
relations have surfaced, various elements of the Iranian 
security establishment have taken to arresting Iranian-Americans 
on vague or trumped up charges.  Considered Iranian citizens by 
the IRIG, and traveling to Iran on their Iranian passports as 
Iranian law forbids Iranians with another nationality from 
entering Iran on their non-Iranian passport, they are easy prey. 
 At least in the IRIG's estimation, the international outcry 
over an arrested Iranian-American will be less strident, making 
the diplomatic backlash less severe.  Finally, given the Iranian 
population's general ambivalence or even resentment towards 
exiled Iranians returning to Iran on missions to save the 
country after spending decades in comfortable exile, the IRIG 
knows there is likely to be little outcry within Iran on these 
cases. 
 
 
 
¶2. [S/NF] For the IRIG, detained/arrested Iranian-Americans 
serve four valuable purposes: first, their interrogation and 
detention affords Iranian security services time to investigate 
their associations inside Iran, which often leads to other 
innocent but vulnerable targets, and  may also result in 
intelligence about their foreign links; second, their generally 
inexplicable treatment puts the brakes on too quick a 
reconciliation with the international community by both 
horrifying outside observers and intimidating indigenous 
pro-engagement and reformist forces;  third, the incarceration 
of innocent but influential Iranian-Americans chills others in 
similar circumstances from visiting Iran or associating with 
organizations involved in US-Iran issues; fourth, they serve as 
useful bargaining chips - primarily via releasing them as a 
gesture after concessions are wrung from the other side.  In 
some cases, however, they are cynically treated as pure grist 
for an exchange of cash or valued goods. 
 
 
 
¶3. [S/NF] In the case of Roxana Saberi, she has now probably 
been detained long enough for the IRIG to check its leads, she 
has already made the necessary impression internationally and 
domestically, and her treatment has by now sufficiently chilled 
Iranian-Americans and others to steer clear of activism in Iran. 
 So what's left? The IRIG may now seek to use the release of Ms. 
Saberi, (and perhaps Esha Momeni who is still prohibited from 
leaving Iran), as a gesture to the US in exchange for or in 
response to US concessions.  Department's close monitoring of 
the Saberi case is valuable, not only because it will help an 
innocent and accomplished American rejoin her family, but also 
as the terms and timing of her release will provide a useful 
measure of IRIG receptivity to US-Iran engagement. 
 
 
 
¶4. [S/NF]  Alaei Brothers Able to Receive Family Visits: 
According to a friend of the Alaei family, the doctors' mother 
is able to make "regular," albeit brief, visits to her sons, who 
are serving their prison sentences in solitary confinement in 
Tehran's Evin Prison.  The mother reports that the brothers are 
held in separate cells, but are within earshot of each other. 
Although Arash and Kamiar are not permitted to see or speak with 
each other, the mother said they reassure each other daily that 
neither has been moved to a different location by singing loudly 
in Kurdish. 
 
 
 
¶5. [C/NF]  AN's Defeated Subsidy Plan May Still Lure Some 
Voters:  A well-established IRPO contact relayed a conversation 
he recently had in Tehran with several members of the cleaning 
staff of a large consulting firm, all of whom expressed their 
intent to support Ahmadinejad in hopes that a second term would 
allow him to fulfill his plan of giving cash payments to 
lower-income Iranians.  As one of the men explained, because he 
had already filled out the cash payment eligibility form 
provided by the government, he believed he now needed to help 
re-elect AN in order to see the payment plan operationalized. 
 
DUBAI 00000148  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Comment:  Although the plan to replace many food and fuel 
subsidies with targeted cash payments was removed from the 
government's budget earlier this month by the Majles, it appears 
that AN may yet be able to derive some residual benefit at the 
polls, particularly from less sophisticated voters who do not 
follow the policy making process closely.  According to domestic 
news reports, some 95% of households in Iran completed forms to 
determine their eligibility for the hand-outs. 
 
 
 
¶6. [C/NF]  Michigan State Interest in Recruiting Iranian 
Students to Dubai: In a meeting with the Consul General to 
discuss its Dubai branch, Michigan State University President 
Lou Anna Simon expressed an interest in recruiting more Iranian 
students to increase its enrollment there.  She said that 
Michigan State plans to increase enrollment gradually at its new 
Dubai campus, building on the 50 students currently enrolled. 
Michigan State officials said their ability to recruit in Iran 
was limited by legal restrictions and logistics, and asked IRPO 
officer for further ideas on reaching out to prospective 
students inside Iran and within the Iranian diaspora. 
University officials also showed interest in working with IRPO 
on training for Iranian teachers of English, similar to the IRPO 
grant given to George Mason's Ras Al Khaimah campus last year. 
Comment:  Interest in US higher education remains high among 
Iranians, but few are able to meet financial requirements or 
qualify for a visa. Branches of U.S. universities in Dubai and 
in the region are a reasonable alternative, and we are exploring 
ways we can cooperate with Michigan State and others U.S. 
universities. 
 
 
 
¶7. [C/NF]  No New Interest Rate Policy Until After Election: 
Commenting on recent Iranian press reports that the Central Bank 
of Iran (CBI) may institute a new policy to tie interest rates 
to inflation, one UAE-based Iranian economic consultant 
downplayed the possibility of any change before June's 
elections.  While crediting the CBI for attempting the change, 
rates have generally been set by Presidential decree under AN, 
the turmoil of the election season forestalls significant 
changes in policy or management at the top of the CBI. 
Comment:  Following the Majles' revisions of AN's budget in 
early March, a dispute between the CBI and AN on interest rate 
policy could quickly become another hot button issue in Iranian 
politics.  AN's handling of this issue - deferring it or 
confronting it head on - will be an indicator of how chastened 
he was by the budget fight, as well as his political sense. 
ASGARD