P 061046Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU
TO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4698

C O N F I D E N T I A L OUAGADOUGOU 000145 
 
 
FROM AMBASSADOR JACKSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UV
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S REFLECTIONS ON BURKINA FASO'S 
LEADERSHIP 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jeanine Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
----------- 
 
¶1. (C) The future of Burkina Faso is firmly in the hands of 
two men:  President Blaise Compaore and Prime Minister 
Tertius Zongo.  As I prepare to leave post after three years, 
it is my assessment that this leadership team is generally 
moving the country in the right direction, but we will need 
to push, press, cajole and work with them to continue the 
progress.  This cable represents my views on Compaore and 
Zongo, and offers a few suggestions of how we might best 
engage them.  End Summary. 
 
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THE PRESIDENT - 
The leopard that changed his spots... at least for now. 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Now in his 21st year as President, Blaise Compaore is 
taking Burkina Faso, a country wracked by extreme poverty, in 
the right direction: moving forward on the process of 
democratization, working with donors and others to ensure the 
nation's economic stability, turning the page on the negative 
regional role Burkina played in the past, and seeking better 
relations with the United States -- in part to balance 
Burkina's long-time partners including Libya, Cuba and 
France. 
 
¶3. (C) Compaore's democratic credentials are mixed.  He 
overwhelmingly won re-election in November 2005 in voting 
that was free but not particularly fair due to the vast 
resources of his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) 
party and the weaknesses of the excessively numerous 
opposition parties.  The CDP party won 73 of the 111 
legislative seats in the May 2007 elections, and allied 
parties a further 25 seats.  The country's first municipal 
elections were also dominated by the ruling party but on the 
positive side, many women were elected.  Compaore has 
personally and successfully promoted women's issues, HIV/AIDS 
programs and actively supported rural development. 
 
¶4. (C) During my private conversations with him, I have found 
him to be extremely serious, genuine, and well-informed.  I 
am told that his closest advisors love working for him. 
While he and they work extremely long hours, travel 
frequently and host many visitors, he regularly finds time to 
draw them onto the soccer field to relieve stress.  He was 
originally influenced to improve his image by these same 
people and they are the ones who could convince him to leave 
office gracefully in 2015 - or to stay on to keep the country 
on the right path. 
 
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Succession Remains Uncertain 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) I think it is almost certain that President Compaore 
will stand for reelection in 2010 and win overwhelmingly.  No 
other person in the country has anything approaching his 
resources, popularity, and influence -- and now he also has a 
degree of international recognition.   Certainly one of the 
reasons that he favors closer ties with the United States is 
to strengthen his international standing and consequently to 
bolster his position domestically.  The key election will not 
be 2010 but 2015.  Compaore, who under the present 
constitution will be barred from running again in 2015, will 
have to decide whether he can truly see a future for himself 
as a private citizen.  He can choose to go the way of many 
other African leaders by changing the constitution (again) or 
by gracefully retiring to become a senior African statesman 
and troubleshooter. 
 
¶6.  (C) Many observers believe that Compaore will indeed 
modify the constitution in order to run for another term in 
2015, following Quadafi's assertion that 'if a president is 
right for the country, a constitution should be changed to 
keep him in power.'  (NOTE:  To change the constitution 
requires only 15,000 signatures and a two-thirds majority in 
the National Assembly. END NOTE) Other factors that may make 
it difficult for the President to cede power include 
Compaore's alleged human rights abuses in the 1980's and 90's 
which could come back to haunt him if he were succeeded by 
someone not closely aligned with him and/or his party.  In 
addition, loyalists, who may have profited from Compaore's 
Presidency in terms of favoritism for contracts and high 
level positions, are likely to encourage him to run again in 
¶2015. 
 
¶7. (C) If Compaore does cede power the question arises: who 
could take his place?  Recent speculation is that his 
brother, Francois Compaore, could be the successor.  While 
Francois is a well-educated economist and adviser to the 
President, he is not at all popular across Burkina society 
because of his alleged involvement in the killing of a 
respected journalist, Norbert Zongo, in 1998.  He is also 
perceived to be corrupt.  So it is unlikely that the 
President would endorse his brother and risk losing 
popularity.  Several years ago it appeared that President 
Compaore had begun grooming Gilbert Ouedraogo as a potential 
successor.  Ouedraogo is the current Transportation Minister, 
son of a former President, and head of the opposition party, 
the ADF/RDA (Rassemblement Democratique Africain/l"Alliance 
pour la Democratie et la Federation).  The ADF/RDA is aligned 
with the President but is critical of the government on a 
number of domestic issues. It is no longer evident that 
Ouedraogo remains a favorite potential successor.  (COMMENT: 
Ouedraogo participated in the International Visitor program 
and has a very positive opinion of the U.S. END COMMENT) 
 
8 (C) Any potential for a democratic succession is rendered 
more difficult in the context that there are more than 130 
political parties.  Many of them operate without resources or 
platforms. Coalitions are built only to split apart.  Most 
viable opposition parties are generally aligned with the 
President and the CDP.  But the ruling CDP has also 
experienced significant internal strife and is being held 
together by the personality of the President.  The President 
and Prime Minister have assured me that they are serious 
about holding free and fair elections but the weakness of the 
parties will make that a real challenge. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
THE PRIME MINISTER - An Example of Leadership 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Compaore appointed his former Ambassador to 
Washington, Tertius Zongo, as his Prime Minister in June, 
¶2007.  This demonstrated his desire to continue to improve 
U.S.-Burkina Faso relations and to build on the close and 
constructive professional relationship Zongo had with U.S. 
Government officials, congresspersons and the U.S. business 
community. 
 
¶10. (C) Prime Minister Zongo should write a book called "The 
Leadership Secrets of Tertius Zongo."  He was a dynamic 
Ambassador to the U.S. but even the most skeptical citizens 
and donors are astonished by what he has accomplished in 18 
months as Prime Minister.  He has a no-nonsense approach and 
has focused on fighting corruption at all levels; making 
education his highest priority; connecting the government 
with the people throughout the country; choosing the right 
ministers and teaching them how to improve efficiency by 
using American "management by objectives" principles; and 
consulting with bilateral and international donors on key 
issues.  As the prime mover to make Burkina Faso eligible for 
a MCC compact, he continues to use the results of the 17 MCC 
performance indicators as a guide to prioritize his focus. 
Zongo knows just how far he can push the government and 
private sector to reduce corruption without ruffling too many 
feathers among the most powerful government and business 
leaders.  A long-time civil servant, Zongo is not a likely 
Presidential candidate in 2015. 
 
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Comment 
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¶11.  (C) It is not clear to me whether Compaore and Zongo can 
pull off the transition to a more stable, long-term 
democratic system. I think Zongo clearly wants to, and 
Compaore could be convinced to move towards real democracy 
and democratic institutions if he believes that he will have 
a personal future in such a system and that the country will 
not fall into chaos.  If we push, press, cajole and work with 
them to continue the progress, we may actually succeed in 
helping them turn this country into a long-term success 
story. It would not be easy, but certainly worth the effort. 
 
 
JACKSON