VZCZCXRO1791
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHNC #0186/01 0761457
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 171457Z MAR 09 ZFF4
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9712
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1388

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000186 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TR CY
SUBJECT: CYPRUS: TURKISH CYPRIOT "GOVERNING" PARTY DOWN, 
BUT MAYBE NOT COMPLETELY OUT 
 
REF: A. NICOSIA 17 
     ¶B. NICOSIA 132 
     ¶C. NICOSIA 165 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Frank C. Urbancic for reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4 
(d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The "governing" Republican Turkish Party 
(CTP) hopes to close a fifteen-point gap with the opposition, 
hard-line National Unity Party (UBP) by turning the upcoming 
April 19 "parliamentary" elections into a debate over UBP's 
retrograde past, rather than CTP's own lackluster governance 
and limited success with its pro-solution agenda.  CTP 
supporters argue that the party can still win, thanks to an 
opposition plagued by even higher negative numbers than their 
own.  Others, however, believe that popular outrage is 
insurmountable, caused largely by the dismal economy in 
northern Cyprus, and that the best CTP can attain is a close 
second-place finish.  Thinly-veiled attacks on UBP by "TRNC 
President" Mehmet Ali Talat -- officially neutral in the race 
but clearly worried over the prospect of an anti-solution, 
UBP-led government -- may fall flat with the increasingly 
cynical Turkish Cypriot community.  CTP insiders report 
having received mixed signals over Turkey's preferences and, 
to date, no concrete support in their bid to stay in power. 
End Summary 
 
"I'll become a butcher if CTP wins!" 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C)  A March 3 poll commissioned by leading T/C daily 
"Kibris" and conducted by respected polling outfit KADEM put 
CTP a distant second with just 28.3 percent of the vote, 
while main opposition UBP tallied 43.4 percent.  CTP publicly 
dismissed the poll as "fabricated," given the paper's 
stridently anti-CTP editorial policy, which many attribute to 
revenge by its fugitive owner, Asil Nadir, who recently lost 
a major government tender.  Party insiders confirmed the 
dismal figures, however.  Talat's press secretary and CTP 
Central Executive Committee member Hasan Ercakica confided to 
us on February 12 that unreleased polling conducted for Talat 
by Turkish companies in January give UBP and CTP numbers 
nearly identical to KADEM's.  Asim Akansoy, Talat's chief of 
staff, told us on March 9 that the "Kibris" poll was sound -- 
in fact, he had had a Turkish polling company check KADEM's 
work and had full confidence in it.  KADEM owner Muharrem 
Faiz told us on February 3 that he would "become a butcher" 
if CTP emerged number-one from the April 19 "parliamentary" 
elections. 
 
 
"We deserve the public's outrage" 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Ercakica said on March 5 that CTP deserved the 
public's outrage because of its economic mismanagement and 
poor governance.  He joked that the "TRNC" economy had to be 
run like a company, not a "country," since the Turkish 
Cypriots did not even control their own monetary policy. 
(Note:  The economy is the primary issue for Turkish Cypriots 
(Ref A).)  Respondents to a July 2008 KADEM poll named 
inflation as the number-one problem facing the north (36.2 
percent), with growing unemployment in third place (26.3 
percent).  In the March 3 "Kibris" poll, 61.4 percent claimed 
to be worse off today than when CTP took "power" in December 
2005, a staggering figure since CTP claims to have tripled 
per capital GDP to $15,000 in the very same period. 
 
¶4. (C) Akansoy blamed "PM" and CTP leader Ferdi Sabit Soyer, 
who, he charged, constantly antagonized key groups like trade 
unions and the business community -- hitherto key elements of 
CTP's election formula -- without achieving anything in the 
bargain.  He complained that Soyer had higher negatives than 
the party itself.  Akansoy claimed that his polling indicates 
a slow erosion of CTP support since 2006, down to its core of 
25 percent.  It had posted an all-time high of 44.5 percent 
in December 2005. 
 
"People are tired of the Cyprus Problem" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) CTP, whose raison d'etre is the reunification of 
Cyprus as a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, has been badly 
hurt by the slow pace of the current UN-brokered settlement 
process and a concomitant attitude of resignation among 
Turkish Cypriots.  Omer Kalyoncu, CTP's number-two, told us 
on February 5 that the Turkish Cypriot people had simply 
 
NICOSIA 00000186  002 OF 003 
 
 
grown tired of the Cyprus Problem.  Salih Izbul, a CTP 
"deputy", joked with us on March 5 that people in the 
villages were more interested in high-paying state sector 
jobs for their children and constantly needed to be reminded 
of UBP's anti-solution stance. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Polling supports their analysis: according to the 
March 3 "Kibris" poll, approximately 63 percent of Turkish 
Cypriots support a two-state solution, while 54 percent would 
vote "no" if the 2004 Annan Plan referendum were held again 
today.  KADEM's July 2008 poll paints a similar picture, with 
62 percent supporting two independent states and 67 percent 
rejecting the Annan Plan.  Such attitudes correspond closely 
with UBP's rejection of the bizonal, bicommunal UN process 
and support for an enduring "TRNC." 
 
"Thankfully UBP candidate list is worse than ours" 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7. (C) CTP strategists are hoping to tar UBP by capitalizing 
on the high personal negatives of a host of pro-UBP and 
nationalist figures, as well as a weak UBP candidate list. 
CTP's top targets include the septuagenarian hard-line UBP 
leader Dervish Eroglu, "Kibris" owner Asil Nadir, and Rauf 
Denktash, the pro-Turkey, "deep state" stalwart whom the 
pro-CTP press has been trying to link to Ergenekon.  Kutlay 
Erk, Talat's special envoy and former CTP Nicosia mayor, told 
us on March 6 that ham-handed attacks by the Nadir-owned 
"Kibris" against CTP, combined with Denktash's call for Talat 
to resign in the event of a UBP victory, have motivated the 
party faithful.  Ercakica, himself critical of CTP's own list 
of candidates, joked with us that thankfully the UBP 
candidate list -* a largely "usual suspects" group of 
fifty-something nationalists -- was less electable than 
CTP's. 
 
¶8.  (C) Candidates' personalities and bona fides are 
paramount in the intimate Turkish Cypriot community, where 
election rules allow voters to split their tickets among 
various parties.  Pollster Faiz told us that in this 
election, up to 18 percent of voters will vote a split 
ticket, versus a norm closer to 7-8 percent in prior 
"parliamentary" elections.  T/C parties zealously await the 
announcement of each other's lists to see if they have any 
comparative advantages, he added. 
 
CTP Split on Chances to Recover 
------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Party leaders are split on how much of the gap CTP can 
close.  Erk and Nicosia CTP election chief Unal Findik still 
believe that CTP might be able to eke out a narrow victory. 
They claim the party has started from a deficit and emerged 
victorious in recent races.  Others are less sanguine. 
Akansoy dubbed CTP's electioneering a "balloon, full of gas 
but ultimately hollow."  He warned us not to fall for CTP 
boasting of a come-from-behind victory, since, according to 
his polls, half of undecided voters -- about seven percent of 
the electorate -- would not consider voting for CTP under any 
circumstances.  Ercakica thought the party could narrow the 
gap with UBP to about 3-5 points provided its plan to 
demonize UBP succeeds.  He believes that a close second-place 
finish by CTP would make it possible, provided AKP is game, 
to forge a three-party coalition that excluded a first-place 
UBP. 
 
¶10. (C)  CTP's first volley in its election strategy--a 
ham-handed attempt to squeeze back-taxes out of 
"Kibris"--appears to have misfired. A call by CTP "Finance 
Minister" Ahmet Uzun on March 11 for Nadir to pay an alleged 
11 million TL debt(about 6 million dollars) resulted in a 
rather large scale anti-CTP rally in front of "Kibris." After 
much back and forth, Uzun announced that the papers' 
accountants would work with the "Ministry" to pay the back 
taxes. Most of our contacts believe the move hurt CTP and its 
image as defenders of free speech, hitherto deserved without 
reserve. 
 
"The new 'government' will have to support the peace process" 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶11. (C) Talat clearly worries that an election victory by the 
hard-line UBP would limit his ability to negotiate and create 
a messy cohabitation with the "TRNC forever" party, UBP. 
While officially neutral in his role as "President," Talat, 
the former CTP leader, has on several occasions stated that 
any new "government" has to abide by the bi-zonal, 
 
NICOSIA 00000186  003 OF 003 
 
 
bi-communal parameters of the present talks, a clear shot at 
UBP.  How effective his pro-solution appeals are with a 
sullen, resigned Turkish Cypriot community is far from clear, 
however. 
 
Unclear whom Ankara favors (if anybody) 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) CTP insiders say official Turkey does not have a 
clear favorite in the race and has done nothing overtly to 
support CTP's efforts.  Ercakica said that the Turkish 
Foreign Ministry, especially Undersecretary Ertugrul Apakan, 
would like to see a grand "coalition" of UBP and CTP in order 
to force through sorely needed but highly unpopular and 
painful public sector reforms.  He claimed, however, that 
AKP, namely PM Erdogan, FM Babacan, and EU Negotiator Egemen 
Bagis, favored (but were not wedded to) a continuation of the 
present CTP-ORP coalition--a dim prospect given ORP's own 
dismal poll numbers, which hover around the 5 percent 
barrier.  CTP's pro-solution stance, antipathy towards 
Eroglu, and party-to-party connections between ORP and AKP 
underpinned AKP's position, Ercakica believed.  Akansoy 
differed in opinion, however, saying that Erdogan was 
"completely fed up" with CTP leader and "PM" Soyer because of 
his inconsistency and inability to deliver on promised 
reforms.  Consequently, it was unclear what help, if any, AKP 
would provide to CTP during the elections. Akansoy told us on 
March 17 that PM Erdogan told Talat during their impromptu 
meeting on March 13 that he "would do his best" to help, 
without going into any specifics. 
 
¶13. (C) Comment: There is no denying the widespread public 
anger at CTP over its poor record on governance, which is now 
exacerbated by an economic meltdown and an official 
unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent.  Furthermore, 
CTP has a much smaller party base than UBP, which, even in 
its worst performance, won 32 percent of the vote in 2005. 
Appeals that only CTP can deliver a Cyprus solution may also 
fall on deaf ears, given that the present settlement process 
has hobbled along without producing major "victories" for 
Talat and the CTP-led "government."  That said, UBP has 
little new to offer the T/C public, is hurt by its highly 
unpopular leader Eroglu, and still needs to get through the 
next five weeks without making major gaffes. 
 
 
Urbancic