VZCZCXRO2512
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMZ #0068/01 0861611
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271611Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4701
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE IMMEDIATE 0037
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0310

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV GM
SUBJECT: BAVARIAN HOME PARTY FIGHTS FOR LOCAL SUPPORT, 
NATIONAL RELEVANCE BY SNIPING AT MERKEL 
 
REF: BERLIN 280 
 
Classified By: Eric G. Nelson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
 SUMMARY 
 
¶1.  (SBU)   Christian Social Union (CSU) party chief Horst 
Seehofer must prove to voters that his weakened party is 
still standard bearer for Bavaria in order to make the five 
percent hurdle in the June 7 European Parliamentary 
elections.  He is casting his party as an indispensible 
faction representing Bavaria in the European Parliament and 
as an independent-minded national coalition partner in 
Berlin.  CSU sniping about Chancellor Merkel,s leadership 
style is making headlines, with the leadership focusing on 
relatively minor issues like the Chancellor,s criticism of 
the Pope.  Slowly, more important issues, like fiscal 
conservatism, have surfaced but it is still too early to know 
whether the economic crisis will develop into a powerful 
issue dominating a majority of the voters, attention in 
Bavaria.  The question is whether the voters who rejected the 
CSU in September 2008 will warm again to Minister President 
Seehofer,s populist return to the basic themes of Christian 
and social values.  End Summary. 
 
First Challenge: Winning Seats in the EU Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (C) The results of European Parliament elections on June 7 
will determine how the CSU goes into the Bundestag elections 
on September 27, according to Michael Hoehenberger (protect), 
head of Policy Planning in the Bavarian State Chancellery and 
personal advisor to Horst Seehofer, Bavarian Minister 
President (CSU).  In meetings on March 12 and again on March 
25, Hoehenberger admitted to PolConsul that the CSU was in 
the fight of its life to remain powerful inside Bavaria and 
thus relevant on the national and European stages. 
Separately, in our private meetings over the last few months 
with politicians from the Free Democratic Party (FDP), 
Greens, and Freie Waehler (Independents), we have 
consistently heard the same thing: that the CSU is worried 
about a low voter turnout rate since the European 
parliamentary election falls during a major local holiday. 
This, combined with lower approval ratings, could 
significantly damage its chances in the EU election. 
 
¶3.  (C) Hoehenberger expressed confidence that if the CSU 
wins EU seats, the party would then close ranks with the CDU 
in the September Bundestag elections.  On the other hand, a 
loss at the EU level would weaken the CSU and alter its 
relationship with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 
unforeseeable ways, he feared. 
 
Merkel,s Image and Style Are Dominant Issues Now 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶4.  (C) Hoehenberger said that the CSU believes Chancellor 
Merkel comes across to Bavarians as aloof and her image has 
suffered when compared to President Obama,s dynamic &star 
power.8  Merkel and Seehofer have contrasting personalities 
and backgrounds.  Merkel is viewed locally as cool and 
analytical. She is a Protestant from East Germany and has a 
university degree.  Seehofer, a Catholic, has no university 
degree.  He has a &hail good fellow well met8 character and 
is known as the &Robin Hood of the Little People.8  At the 
party,s rally on Ash Wednesday, he cited sad memories of his 
poor childhood as justification for his support of a new 
school lunch program.  Even his critics concede that no one 
in the CDU/CSU knows more about social issues and health 
reform than he. 
 
¶5.  (C) While there are internal CDU grumblings about 
leadership qualities lacking in the CDU chairwoman, the CSU 
is criticizing Merkel to enhance its prospects in Bavaria. 
Hoehenberger recited popular criticism of Merkel,s handling 
of Pope Benedict, which he said had alienated Catholics all 
over Germany but rankled nowhere more than in the Pope,s 
native Bavaria.  He then mentioned Merkel,s subsequent 
resistance to defending Erika Steinbach, President of the 
Federation of (Sudeten) Expellees, which annoyed their 
representatives everywhere but especially in Bavaria where 
Minister President Seehofer is their honorary chairman.  They 
make up a strong minority voting bloc and Seehofer recently 
pleased them when he awarded Steinbach a Bavarian Order of 
Merit, an immediate reaction to Merkel,s cool distance from 
the affair. 
 
¶6.  (C) Regarding the economic crisis, Hoehenberger argued 
that Merkel fails society by not &taking people by the 
 
MUNICH 00000068  002 OF 002 
 
 
hand8 to &give them a sense of security and of being 
protected.8  Her dismissal of Opel as ¬ critical for the 
German economy8 was particularly poorly handled, he charged, 
noting &it might be true but she did not have to say it in a 
way that unsettled people.8  With the rise of Karl-Theodore 
zu Guttenberg, the new and charismatic Economics Minister and 
CSU leader, there is another potentially unflattering 
comparison.  Hoehenberger added that Merkel,s public persona 
suffers from her years as leader of the CDU/CSU/SPD 
coalition, which has progressively dulled her CDU patina and 
undermined her bona fides with the conservative CSU party 
faithful. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) There are reports that Seehofer is encouraging 
criticism of Merkel within the party.  During Sunday 
afternoon strategy sessions at CSU headquarters in Munich, he 
reportedly backs up those who criticize the grand coalition 
in Berlin, even at the expense of the CDU.  CSU EU deputies 
Markus Ferber and Manfred Weber have dutifully attacked 
Merkel,s lack of leadership qualities, and Emilia Mueller, 
Bavarian Minister for European Affairs, has piled on. 
However, former Minister President Gunther Beckstein told the 
Consul General recently that he had his doubts about the 
effectiveness among the rank and file of Seehofer,s approach 
attacking Merkel. 
 
The CSU Seeks Support of Traditional Voters 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) &Traditional voters are our pillar,8 Seehofer wrote 
in a recent &Bayernkurier8 newspaper editorial.  &We have 
to strengthen our traditional voters rather than rely on 
uncertain voters who switch from one party to another.8 
Separately, Beckstein confirmed this to the Consul General, 
noting that the CSU,s main problem, according to polls, is 
loss of conservative voters to FW and FDP.  Hoehenberger said 
that for the European Parliamentary elections, the CSU will 
focus on Christian and social justice themes as well as 
renewal of the Social Market economic model (&Soziale 
Marktwirtschaft8) in Germany, Bavarian autonomy, and 
agricultural issues.  They are also making an issue of health 
care reform, focusing on the health fund and doctors, 
salaries. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) The CSU is in a difficult position.  It has to be a 
wheel squeaky enough to rally Bavarian support and enough 
voter turn out to ensure they make the five percent hurdle 
nationwide for entry into the European Parliament.  In 
raising its political profile with Bavarian voters and 
showing how it is different from all the other parties, it 
must also remain true to its sister party, the CDU. 
Seehofer,s strategy is to win back support through 
rejuvenating the party and focusing attention on traditional 
issues.  His stated disdain for courting new voter groups 
might backfire if significant segments of his base continue 
to believe that the CSU,s time has passed and stay at home 
on June 7 or cast support elsewhere.  If the CSU secures its 
place as a European regional power, it is likely that it will 
stop sniping at the Chancellor and line up with the CDU for 
the September Bundestag elections. 
NELSON