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RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHMC #0110/01 0761525
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171525Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL MONTERREY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3585
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4640
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY 9154

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MONTERREY 000110 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX
SUBJECT: PAN AND PRI RESORT TO OLD TACTICS IN NUEVO LEON GOVERNOR'S 
RACE 
 
REF: A) 08 MONTERREY 559  B) MONTERREY 079 
 
MONTERREY 00000110  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Summary 
 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary.  Despite earlier promises to hold primaries, 
the Nuevo Leon PAN and PRI parties both chose their candidates 
by direct designation, reflecting the parties' desire to control 
the process. The PAN selected Fernando Elizondo Barragan to be 
their candidate for governor and the PRI chose Rodrigo Medina de 
la Cruz, both of whom are considered centralist, mainstream 
candidates.   Both parties continue to view the state elections 
as a barometer for the 2012 federal elections and the national 
party leaders played an important role in choosing the 
candidates.  The election reform laws already favor the large, 
established parties but the PAN and PRI are still working hard 
to exploit the reforms.  The PRD has a negligible presence in 
Nuevo Leon.  Some longtime Panistas think that the PAN party has 
abandoned its beliefs by imitating the PRI in designating a 
candidate and by courting the party of the teachers union for a 
coalition.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
The PAN Party 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) After a month of deliberations, the national PAN 
leadership chose to overrule the state PAN's decision to allow a 
vote of state party members to choose a candidate (See reftel 
A).  Instead, national leaders handpicked (`dedazo') Fernando 
Elizondo to be the party's candidate for governor on February 3. 
 The decision appears to be a way to avoid a possible 
embarrassment if Adalberto Madero, the current mayor of 
Monterrey, or Fernando Larrazabal, a state congressman, were to 
win.  Madero and Larrazabal have both been plagued by corruption 
allegations lodged by the business community and the local media 
but both remain very popular with the working classes in urban 
areas.  Publicly, local and national PAN leaders have said the 
dedazo was important to bring unity to the party.  PAN leaders 
from President Calderon on down have come out to support 
Elizondo, calling him the right man for the job.  According to a 
high ranking PAN party member, Francisco Lozano, there is still 
a lot of discord within the party.  Many believe that Elizondo 
is an excellent candidate but are unhappy with the selection 
process.   Another leading candidate, San Pedro Mayor Fernando 
Margain, a good friend and "compadre" of President Calderon, was 
particularly upset with the decision.  He reportedly has been 
offered an ambassadorship, at the Vatican, or by some accounts, 
in Paris.  Madero was initially very public with his displeasure 
with the direct designation but in recent weeks has not made any 
public remarks on the subject.  The PAN has agreed to back two 
of Madero's allies to be federal congressional deputies, 
Guillermo Blanco - his ex-driver and now his chief of staff, and 
Cynthia Yanez - his current executive assistant. 
 
 
 
PAN Candidate Fernando Elizondo 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Elizondo has a long history of government service, 
falls into the  conservative camp, and feels the United States 
is an important ally.    Prior to his election as a federal 
senator, Elizondo also served as state treasurer, interim 
governor of Nuevo Leon in 2003, and federal energy secretary for 
President Vicente Fox.  Elizondo comes from a prominent Nuevo 
Leon family and has strong ties to the business community, 
especially with heavyweight Group of Ten companies such as 
Alfa, Cemex and Hylsa.  Elizondo's father was a popular governor 
of Nuevo Leon from 1967-1971.  Based upon our discussions with 
him, Elizondo came across as a pragmatic leader well versed in 
the issues.  The infighting in the PAN party and Elizondo's age 
(60) will continue to be problems in his election bid. 
 
 
 
The PRI Party 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On the same day as the PAN announcement, the PRI party 
also decided to designate a candidate, Nuevo Leon Secretary 
General Rodrigo Medina.  The party had originally decided to 
hold an open primary to allow the people of Nuevo Leon to choose 
the PRI candidate.  The state PRI committee announced that 
having a unity candidate instead of a competitive primary would 
 
MONTERREY 00000110  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
better serve the party.  The PRI committee had the blessing of 
the federal party leaders and leaders of the major trade unions 
--CTM, CROC, CNOP, and the CNC.  Before the announcement, Abel 
Guerra, Nuevo Leon's State Public Works Chief and a former 
congressman, was the leading candidate.  However, Guerra did not 
have the support of the current PRI governor of Nuevo Leon, Jose 
Natividad Gonzalez Paras, and this may have been the crucial 
element in deciding the candidate.  Guerra won the consolation 
prize with his designation as PRI's candidate for mayor of 
Monterrey and he has publicly announced his support of Medina. 
In contrast to the PAN, years of ingrained party discipline has 
helped to keep PRI party members from attacking one another in 
public.   Behind the scenes, two camps appear to have formed in 
the state party; one backed by the Governor Jose Natividad 
Gonzalez Paras and the other backed by Guerra.  The internal 
battle produced mixed results:  the governor chose his protege 
Medina as PRI candidate for Governor, but Guerra won the PRI nod 
as candidate for Mayor of Monterrey and he was able to name an 
ally as the new president for the influential state PRI party. 
 
 
 
PRI Candidate Rodrigo Medina 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Rodrigo Medina is currently on leave as the Secretary 
General for Nuevo Leon and previously served as a  federal 
congressman.  Medina, 36, is viewed as an inexperienced, unknown 
candidate compared to Elizondo, but voters may welcome a young, 
energetic personality in the governor's house.  Gonzalez Paras 
invited Medina to join his cabinet in 2007 when Medina was a 
federal congressman, and immediately began grooming him as his 
successor.  Because of his youth, Monterrey's leading daily, "El 
Norte"  at times refers to Medina as the  "Golden Boy," 
although  some cynically observe that this ostensibly derogatory 
reference is actually a ruse designed to heighten his public 
profile.  To increase his exposure, the governor has often asked 
Medina to represent him before key PRI constituencies such as 
labor unions.  While not illegal, Medina's filling in for the 
governor circumvented election rules against using one's 
government office to promote a candidate.  Without the dedazo, 
Medina would have had a difficult time winning the party's 
nomination because he was well behind Guerra in the polls and 
the short 59 day pre-campaign season would not have given him 
enough time to convince voters.  Medina is expected to continue 
many of Governor Gonzalez Paras' programs.  Like his PAN 
opponent, Medina's platform centers on improving security and 
the economy. 
 
 
 
Polling numbers show a Close Race 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Medina and Elizondo are tied according to recent polls 
by El Norte but Medina has the momentum in his favor.  Medina 
suffered from name recognition early on but now that campaigning 
has started, he has gained legitimacy as the PRI candidate. 
With the headline-grabbing drug violence taking place in 
northern Mexico, both candidates have received a lot of 
attention as they have condemned the crime, corruption and 
impunity in the state.  Voters continued to be concerned with 
the escalating drug violence and the effects of the economic 
crisis. 
 
 
 
The Clubby World of Nuevo Leon Politics 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Elizondo and Medina are both centrist, mainstream 
candidates and both have ties to the influential Monterrey law 
firm Santos Elizondo.  Elizondo and Medina's mentor, Governor 
Gonzalez Paras, were both partners in the law firm.   The 
governor's brother is still a partner at the firm, and we also 
understand that PRI candidate Medina's father is a lawyer with 
the firm.  Therefore, if either PAN or PRI win, the law firm 
will retain its political influence. 
 
 
 
PRI is Better at Building Small Party Coalitions 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  In the run up to the primary deadline on March 15, 
 
MONTERREY 00000110  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
the ten registered political parties in Nuevo Leon scrambled to 
agree on coalitions.  By forming alliances with either the PAN 
or PRI, smaller parties are guaranteed survival by continuing to 
receive state recognition.   (In addition, they would likely be 
allowed to name candidates for a few city council positions, a 
mayor of a town, or even a state legislator.)   Under the new 
election laws, parties that do not win at least 1.5% of the 
popular vote in the state legislative elections are eliminated 
as official parties, forfeiting state campaign funds and needing 
to gain thousands of signatures to reregister as parties. 
Therefore, even if they do not agree on political principles, 
there are powerful reasons for weak parties to seek the shelter 
of a coalition. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) For the PAN and PRI, coalitions can maximize their 
media advertising and spending caps even though their partners 
might not be able to deliver votes directly.  Some of the newer 
political parties would struggle to muster even 1% of votes 
cast.  Under the new election law, the number of TV and radio 
spots (paid for by the state) is based on a formula - the first 
30% are allocated to the ten registered political parties 
equally and the rest are allocated based on the percentage of 
votes won in the 2006 legislative elections.  TV and radio spots 
are regulated so no party is allowed to purchase air time beyond 
that allotted by the state electoral commission.  The spending 
limits (which are 38% financed by the state) work similarly. 
The formulas overcompensate smaller parties and because of the 
close governor's race, shortened election cycle, and low 
spending limits, every advantage counts. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The PRI agreed on a statewide coalition with the 
Partido del Trabajo, Verde Ecologista, Cruzada Cuidadana and the 
Partido Demoocrata to form a left center coalition.  The PAN 
also vigorously tried to recruit some of these second tier 
parties, but was unsuccessful.  The PRI is more centrally 
controlled and it was able to move quickly to form coalitions, 
whereas PAN infighting made it more difficult.  The most 
interesting development occurred with the largest of the second 
tier parties, Nueva Alianza (PANAL), the party created by the 
teachers' union SNTE.  The PANAL party is seen as a potential 
kingmaker because the SNTE union is the largest labor union in 
Mexico, and the teachers can serve as election foot soldiers to 
promote their preferred candidate.  PANAL independently won 6% 
of the vote for the state legislature in 2006.  Ostensibly It 
rejected a coalition with the PAN because the two could not 
agree on a platform -- and a few days later announced a 
coalition with the PRI party in the local media.  However, as 
recounted to poloff by a source at the event, the night the 
PANAL and PRI party leadership were about to sign the paperwork, 
the state PANAL representative received a call from Elba Esther 
Gordillo, the leader of the SNTE, who told the state PANAL party 
to call off the coalition.   While it is unknown why Gordillo 
broke off the coalition, one logical possibility is that she did 
not want to anger President Calderon, a PAN member.  In the 
press, PRI and PANAL leadership cited disagreements over which 
positions would be offered to the PANAL as the reason for the 
breakup. 
 
Irregularities 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) There is widespread use of public resources by both 
parties even though this is strictly forbidden under the new 
election laws.   For example, the State Government run by a PRI 
governor is spending heavily to promote its large public work 
projects and has proposed populist projects that may never take 
place.  Also, there are reports by local newspapers that 
different city workers from several municipalities are 
campaigning for their respective PAN or PRI candidates. 
Additionally outlawed under the election rules are political 
advertisements on public property but this law is violated 
frequently.  Some local mayors have taken to painting bus stops 
and utility polls PAN or PRI colors.  The state electoral 
commission has not stepped in to stop any of the infractions of 
the election laws. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The issue of the media and campaigning is continuing 
to be a problem.   While campaigns cannot purchase additional TV 
or radio spots, there are allegations that the political parties 
are paying reporters under the table for interviews and press 
coverage to circumvent the rules.  Paying reporters for 
political coverage is not new in Mexico, but it was hoped that 
 
MONTERREY 00000110  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
new auditing rules of campaign funds would prevent this. 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) Violence and drug trafficking organizations are having 
an effect on the elections too.  Nuevo Leon PAN President Juan 
Carlos Ruiz publicly claimed that the party had trouble 
recruiting candidates in rural areas due to security concerns. 
National PAN President German Martinez contradicted Ruiz the 
next day, claiming that the PAN had no trouble recruiting 
candidates.  In any case, the PAN party is not running 
candidates in 7 of the 51 municipalities in the state, while in 
the 2006 elections the PAN failed to run a candidate in only one 
municipality.  Governor Gonzalez Paras has offered to provide 
protection to candidates but the PAN rejected the offer saying 
that the state has the responsibility to protect all of its 
citizens and it does not want the special attention. 
 
 
 
Comments 
 
 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Comment.  The state's election reform laws approved 
in 2008 were widely welcomed in Nuevo Leon, but the restrictions 
on campaign funds and short times for campaigning favor the two 
major parties and well known candidates.  The visible abuses of 
the election laws and the announcements by the two main 
political parties to scrap party primaries have made voters more 
skeptical of clean elections.   There is also the potential that 
drug trafficking organizations could disrupt the elections. 
There has not been any evidence so far of drug money entering 
campaigns but the PAN not running candidates in certain 
municipalities makes it clear that drug trafficking 
organizations are still intimidating candidates.  The 
narco-funded protests in Monterrey and other cities in the 
border region last month also demonstrated the control the drug 
trafficking organizations have in poorer segments of the society 
(see reftel B). 
 
 
 
¶15.  (SBU)  Comment continued.  Some longtime PAN party members, 
such as PAN Mayor Margain and the previous PAN governor, 
Fernando Canales, lament that the PAN party has abandoned its 
principles by copying old PRI tactics to win elections.  These 
PANistas were dismayed that the PAN has resorted to the dedazo, 
the old PRI way to designate candidates, rather than hold a 
public and transparent primary.  Moreover, many longtime PAN 
members were disgusted that the local PAN party sought a 
coalition with the PANAL teacher's union party, since they see 
the teachers union as emblematic of PRI backroom deals and decry 
the teacher union's role in blocking needed reforms to improve 
Mexican public schools.  End Comment. 
WILLIAMSON