VZCZCXRO1107
RR RUEHCHI RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHPB
DE RUEHBN #0038/01 0760237
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170237Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL MELBOURNE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4905
INFO RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 1547

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MELBOURNE 000038 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EIND ECON ETRD AS
SUBJECT: Business Leaders: We're Only at the Beginning of the 
Slowdown 
 
REF: A) Canberra 219, B) Canberra 214 
 
MELBOURNE 00000038  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) During a series of meetings in Melbourne on March 11, 
business and political leaders told Charge that the Australian 
economy is only experiencing the early effects of the global 
slowdown.  Rio Tinto's Managing Director predicts a rough ride for 
commodities until late 2010 and ANZ's deputy CEO sees a shortage of 
longer term financing.  The head of the Business Council of 
Australiabelieves that Australia is entering uncharted economic 
watersand Victoria's Premier is worried about rising unemployment. 
Even these senior business leaders appeared somewhat shaken by the 
scope of the global slowdown and were unable to predict what lies 
around the next bend for the Australian economy.  End Summary. 
 
Uncharted Territory 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to ANZ Bank's Deputy CEO Robert Edgar, Australia 
is only at the beginning of the coming economic slowdown.  Edgar 
believes that a "serious correction" is underway in the global 
economy and predicts that unemployment will continue to rise 
significantly in Australia.  Edgar was "shocked" that economies 
around the world uniformly plummeted and said the last time this 
happened was in response to the 1973 oil price shocks.  The Business 
Council of Australia's (BCA) Chief Executive Katie Lahey told Charge 
that "the market will not necessarily go down and up in a 
predictable way; we're in uncharted territory until the U.S. economy 
gets fixed."  (Note: The Business Council of Australia (BCA) 
comprises the CEOs of 100 of Australia's largest companies, making 
it the voice of big business in Australia.  End note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to Rio Tinto's Managing Director, Stephen Creese, 
commodities are in for a rough ride until late 2010.  Rio expects 
small improvements in market conditions in the latter part of 2009, 
followed by a gradual improvement through 2010.  The mining giant, 
however, is bracing for significant downside risks such as further 
financial shocks, low consumer confidence, rising unemployment and 
the potential for growth in protectionism.  BCA's Katie Lahey echoed 
these concerns and said that a recovery in the commodities market 
will be led by China.  Resource companies are accustomed to 
"battening down the hatches" and shedding staff during troughs in 
the business cycle, she said, but this cycle is more severe. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Victoria's Premier, John Brumby told Charge that job 
advertisements and other forward indicators in his state augur a 
very tough 2009.  Of the approximately 16,100 full time equivalent 
jobs reportedly lost in Australia since November 2008, 8,300 have 
fallen off in Victoria.  The state's unemployment figure has sharply 
risen from 4.8 to 5.6 percent, and is now second only to New South 
Wales and South Australia's rates of 5.8 percent.  Brumby 
acknowledged that Australia's dependence on export-led growth will 
bite deep into the country's GDP figures but was confident that 
Victoria would fare better than other states during the downturn due 
to its diversified economy.  The Premier noted, however, that 
Victoria's dependence on providing tertiary education to foreign 
students will likely hurt the state's economy in late 2009 due to 
financial troubles in countries of origin such as China, Singapore, 
Malaysia and Thailand.  At lunch, Monash University Vice Chancellor 
Richard Larkins told Charge that he had not yet seen a decline in 
the number of foreign students, and that; in fact, enrollments had 
increased, as a result of the depreciation of the Australian dollar. 
(Note: Many Victorians see education as the state's largest foreign 
"export."  End note.) 
 
Credit Still Tight 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) ANZ's Robert Edgar said that tightening international 
banking regulations have required banks such as his to borrow more 
capital "just to stand still."  He said that ANZ still has 
sufficient funds, but most is 30-day or shorter paper.  Despite 
Moody's March 2 warning that ANZ's AA1 rating was no longer secure, 
Edgar said there are few underlying weaknesses in ANZ's balance 
sheet, and exposure to "toxic assets" is minimal.  Edgar noted that 
ANZ's loss rate on mortgages was only 10 basis points.  He explained 
this by noting that the Australian banks did not delve in high risk 
home loans; "I never understood the rationale of loaning without a 
down payment," he said. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Rio Tinto's Stephen Creese, however, expressed some 
frustration with the banks, noting that they are "still not lending 
to each other."  Creese added that banks have become increasingly 
risk adverse.  Katie Lahey said that some companies, particularly 
 
MELBOURNE 00000038  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
small businesses, are unable to find credit, but most are still 
securing "alternative financing" albeit at higher rates.  She went 
on to say that major businesses in the Australian economy are 
pinning their hopes on the security of Australia's "big four" banks 
(ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth and the National Australia Bank (NAB)). 
 
Government Assistance Not Enough 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Referring to the February 25 announcement by clothing maker 
Pacific Brands that it would cut at least 1,850 jobs across 
Australia, Lahey said that the government was "desperate to step in 
and offer assistance."  Pacific Brands' leadership however, refused 
the assistance saying that making clothing in Australia is no longer 
viable.  Accepting government assistance would only delay the 
inevitable and put its former workforce into an even tougher job 
market months later when the jobs would have eventually gone. 
Pacific Brands' CEO Sue Morphet later announced that the company 
would source goods from cheaper overseas manufacturers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Business leaders in Melbourne have described a six-month 
"buffer period" between the Australia and turmoil elsewhere in the 
global economy.  Some have attributed this to early monetary and 
fiscal action by the GOA, a weaker Australian dollar which 
"artificially propped up" exports, and longer-term commodities 
contracts.  With unemployment figures expected to rise further and 
trouble in the key commodities and automotive sectors likely to 
continue, any real or imagined buffer period has probably expired. 
Even senior business leaders have had their confidence shaken and 
many simply state that they are uncertain of what lies ahead for the 
Australian economy. 
 
THURSTON