O 271015Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MBABANE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3478
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MBABANE 000081 
 
 
STATE FOR AF/E (MBEYZEROV); AF/S (MJWILLS, MHARRIS, 
EPELLETREAU) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2013 
TAGS: PREL KDEM MA WZ
SUBJECT: SADC POISED TO SUSPEND MADAGASCAR AT MARCH 30 
HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT 
 
REF: A) STATE 029453B) ANTANANARIVO 217C) PRETORIA 582 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MAURICE S. PARKER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  According to Dr. John Kunene, Swazi Principal 
Secretary (PS) at Ministry of Defense and SADC negotiator, 
SADC Heads of State are poised to take the first step in 
seeking a constitutionally-based resolution to the change of 
power in Madagascar, by suspending that nation from the 
organization.  This action is expected to take place during 
the community's March 30 Heads of State summit at Lozitha 
Palace, Swaziland.  Dr. Kunene stated that the Troika Heads 
of State developed this recommendation during their meeting 
in Swaziland on March 19, but has deferred the decision to 
the SADC Heads of State.  If the suspension does not compel 
the de facto Head of State in Madagascar to abide by Malagasy 
constitutional provisions for change of government, SADC is 
willing to increase the pressure on that nation by imposing 
trade sanctions.  The upcoming SADC meeting will also take 
assessment of the current Zimbabwean Government of National 
Unity.  End Summary 
 
SADC Perspective on Madagascar 
 
¶2.  In response to reftel A, Embassy delivered a copy of 
demarche to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ambassador 
Parker met with Dr. John Kunene at the Swazi Ministry of 
Defense to discuss the matter.  Dr Kunene was delighted to 
learn the position of the USG regarding Madagascar and will 
share our DipNote with King Mswati III as background 
information prior to the SADC Heads of State summit March 29 
and 30, 2009.  The Foreign Ministers will convene on the 29th 
and the Heads of State on Monday, March 30th; ten have 
confirmed their attendance.  The PS said that SADC Troika 
Heads of State clearly expressed their displeasure with the 
coup d'etat during their March 19 meeting and will present 
their recommendations for actions against the current 
government of Madascar during the upcoming Heads of State 
Summit. 
 
¶3.  According to Dr. Kunene, the SADC Troika views 
Rajolina,s power grab as unconstitutional for two reasons: 
a) the constitution requires the President to be a minimum of 
40 years of age; and, b) the constitution places the leader 
of parliament (speaker of the lower house) as second in line 
in the event the President is unable to fulfill his/her 
duties.  Since the de facto President is only 34 years old, 
nor is he the head of parliament, he is constitutionally 
ineligible to hold the office of President. 
 
¶4.  At the upcoming summit, the Troika will recommend that 
SADC negotiators (including Dr. Kunene) return to Madagascar 
for meetings with Rajolina and the colonels to propose that 
former President Ravalomanana be authorized to safely return 
to the country.  The government should hold either a 
referendum of confidence/no confidence on the democratically 
elected president, or the nation should hold multi-party 
elections to determine a new president.  Dr. Kunene said that 
the colonels and Mayor Rajolina should also be granted 
pardons for holding a mutiny and coup d'etat.  If the current 
government of Madagascar refuses to accept these terms, SADC 
will place pressure on the island nation by expelling it from 
the regional organization.  If within six months the 
expulsion does not lead to a change of government, SADC will 
recommend strict trade sanctions against Madagascar.  Dr. 
Kunene stated that these actions would seriously impact the 
Malagasy economy, particularly the tourism industry. 
Developments in Zimbabwe 
 
¶5.  The status of Zimbabwe's Government of National Unity 
will be the second item on SADC's agenda for the Heads of 
State meeting.  Dr. Kunene said that SADC is pleased with 
recent developments in Zimbabwe, particularly President 
Mugabe's recent call for national tolerance of members of the 
MDC party.  He described SADC as the "midwife" of the 
Government of National Unity, and said it plans to continue 
closely monitoring events in Zimbabwe to ensure success. 
 
Comment 
 
¶6.  Dr. Kunene is optimistic that SADC actions will work if 
nations like the United States, and international 
organizations, join SADC in exerting steady pressure on the 
GOM.  He warned that France could be the fly in the ointment. 
 He stated that he received a telephone call from the French 
Charge d' Affaires in Antananarivo on March 26.  Although he 
did not divulge the content of the conversation, he said that 
he suspects the GOF might undermine international efforts by 
increasing assistance to Madagascar. 
 
¶7.  Despite Dr. Kunene's optimism for strong actions against 
Madagascar, SADC actions against member states have rarely 
matched its internal rhetoric.  Dr. Kunene and Ambassador 
Parker have agreed to have a telephone conversation following 
Monday's SADC summit. 
 
 
PARKER