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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000496 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL
SUBJECT: MAS TRIES TO STACK THE DECK FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The new Bolivian constitution requires 
Congressional passage by April 7 of a "transitional regime" 
to establish the rules for the December 6 election of the 
president, vice president, and members of the new 
"Plurinational Assembly."  Under threat of a 10,000-person 
siege by social groups affiliated with the Morales 
administration, the Bolivian Senate will vote soon on draft 
legislation.  The proposed Electoral Transition Law (ETL) 
controls all aspects of the elections, including the number, 
location, and size of regular Congressional districts, 
special indigenous districts, voting by Bolivian citizens 
abroad, division of Senate seats, and the potential 
establishment of a new electoral roll.  In the lower house of 
Congress, President Morales' ruling Movement Toward Socialism 
party (MAS) passed a version of the ETL that stacks the deck 
in their favor, significantly boosting their chances to win a 
two-thirds majority in the new Plurinational Assembly, and 
with it the ability to amend the constitution at will.  While 
the Senate is poised to modify the lower house's legislation 
significantly, whatever it passes will likely be overruled in 
a meeting of the full Congress, handing the MAS a major 
victory and giving it the potential to perpetuate itself in 
power for years to come.  End summary. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - 
MAS Stacks the Deck 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) With President Morales promising as part of his 
regular stump speech that the MAS will win more than 70 
percent of the Plurinational Assembly seats in the December 6 
elections, pressure is on the MAS to create an Electoral 
Transition Law (ETL) that adjusts the rules in their favor. 
The MAS-controlled lower house of Congress has done its part, 
passing a law that contains at least six features designed to 
advantage the MAS. 
 
¶3. (SBU) First, the MAS proposal essentially guarantees that 
all so-called "indigenous seats" will be MAS seats.  The MAS 
version of the ETL establishes that 14 of the lower house's 
130 seats will be set aside for indigenous representation, 
and mandates that all candidates for these seats be approved 
by MAS-affiliated social groups CIDOB, CONAMAQ, or CSUTCB 
(Confederation of Eastern Bolivian Indigenous Communities, 
National Council of Allyus and Markas of Qullasuyu, and the 
Unique Confederation of Rural Laborers of Bolivia, 
respectively).  The opposition has complained that this 
vetting requirement effectively guarantees that MAS 
candidates will win all 14 seats, and that it arbitrarily 
denies some citizens living in these areas the right to run 
for elected office. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Second, the proposed law would deliver more Senate 
seats to the MAS.  With four Senate seats now at stake in 
each department (state), calculating how to award seats could 
mean the difference in who controls the Senate and also help 
the MAS achieve an overall two-thirds majority in the 
Plurinational Assembly.  The MAS favors the d'Hondt method, 
which divides seats in approximate proportion to the number 
of votes won by each party and has a bias toward larger 
parties.  The opposition favors either the Saint Lague method 
(which favors minority parties) or a simpler formula of two 
seats to the winner, and one each to the next two parties, 
assuming the third place party reaches a five percent 
minimum.  Especially in the western departments, by using the 
d'Hondt method the MAS could win three out of four seats. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Third, the MAS draft over-represents rural areas and 
the Altiplano, where the MAS vote is strongest. According to 
the MAS ETL draft, the three Altiplano departments of La Paz, 
Oruro, and Potosi receive 52 seats, while the other six 
combined receive only 78 seats.  And while rural areas 
comprise only one-third of the country's population, they 
would receive two-thirds of the lower house seats, giving the 
MAS a clear advantage. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Fourth, the MAS version of the ETL ignores the 
ongoing Santa Cruz population boom.  By using the 2001 
census, the MAS version of the law would ignore the 
significant growth of Santa Cruz over the last decade 
(largely due to immigration from the Altiplano).  For 
example, many experts believe Potosi and Oruro departments 
should lose three seats, which should be awarded to Santa 
Cruz department, a potential swing of six votes. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Fifth, the MAS version of the ETL violates the 
constitution's proportionality requirements.  The 
constitution requires that half of the lower house's 130 
seats be elected directly (i.e. one votes for a specific 
candidate) and half by party list.  The MAS has decided to 
count the indigenous seats as party list seats, even though 
voters in these districts will be choosing individual 
candidates, leading to 70 direct vote seats, 46 party list 
seats, and 14 indigenous seats.  In Potosi (a MAS 
stronghold), the MAS has directly contradicted the 
constitution by creating eight direct vote seats and only six 
party list seats (and no indigenous seats).  Noting that the 
lower house's party list seats will also be distributed 
according to the d'Hondt method, some experts have speculated 
the MAS carved out the 14 indigenous districts from areas 
that might not otherwise be fertile MAS territory, leaving 
the other 46 to be decided by a method (d'Hondt) relatively 
biased toward larger parties (i.e. the MAS). 
 
¶8. (SBU) Last, the MAS draft legislation would allow "some" 
Bolivians living abroad to vote in December.  Currently, 
Bolivians living abroad are not allowed to vote.  The MAS 
proposal would "phase in" such voting, and in the December 
election would allow only Bolivians living in Argentina to 
vote.  The opposition has charged that Bolivians living in 
Argentina are more likely to vote for the MAS, while those 
living in other countries, such as Spain and the U.S., are 
more likely to vote for the opposition.  The proposed ETL 
would therefore benefit the MAS at the expense of the 
opposition. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
The Senate Fights Back 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9. (U) In contrast, the Senate version explicitly sets out to 
correct the urban/rural imbalance and determine all districts 
strictly by population, including indigenous districts.  The 
opposition proposal would ask the National Electoral Court 
(CNE) to draw districts in each department based solely on 
population, with a minimum of five seats per department. 
Using this criteria, the CNE would also establish the number 
of indigenous districts.  According to the 2001 census and a 
Senate committee analysis, minority indigenous groups (i.e. 
not Aymara or Quechua) make up six percent of the country's 
population and would merit perhaps four seats.  Candidates 
for indigenous seats also would not require approval from 
social groups (CIDOB, CONAMAQ, or CSUTCB). 
 
¶10. (U) The Senate draft requires that the CNE completely 
redo the electoral rolls before the December elections, and 
requires that the CNE generate a proposal to allow voting by 
Bolivians outside the country.  This proposal would have to 
be approved by the Congress before it could be activated, and 
would likely not be approved before the December 6 elections. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Next Step: Full Congress Vote 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶11. (U) The Senate is likely to approve their Constitution 
Committee's proposal in the next few days.  Senate President 
Oscar Ortiz has said he is "not concerned" with the impending 
siege by MAS-affiliated social groups and that the Senate is 
committed to passing a transition law before the deadline. 
Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera said March 29 that he 
also was against any siege and hoped instead that the Senate 
would "fulfill its duty" by expeditiously passing the 
transition law. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Comment: Senate Actions Moot? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶12. (C)  Senate President Ortiz confirmed to Emboff that 
after the Senate passes its version of the Electoral 
Transition Law, it will be sent to the lower house for 
review.  Given the significant differences between the two 
drafts, the lower house is not likely to pass the Senate 
version.  Instead, Vice President Garcia Linera will likely 
convoke the full Congress to vote on a reconciled version of 
the two drafts.  According to Ortiz, any vote by the full 
Congress would require only a simple majority to pass the 
legislation.  Garcia Linera's opposition to the social 
groups' siege may exist because he has counted the votes, and 
knows the MAS can pass whatever text they prefer.  While the 
opposition may be able to modify elements of the MAS 
proposal, in the end the MAS has 84 out of a total 157 votes, 
or well more than half.  If it comes to a straight party 
vote, the MAS can impose its will.  In doing so, the MAS will 
have rewritten the "rules of the game" and be much closer 
toward its goal of a two-thirds majority in the Plurinational 
Assembly.  End comment. 
URS