VZCZCXRO5930
OO RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0434 0600845
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 010845Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7529
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000434 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018 
TAGS: PGOV AF
SUBJECT: MARSHALL FAHIM SUPPORTS KARZAI AS CARETAKER 
PRESIDENT 
 
REF: KABUL 432 
 
Classified By: CDA Christopher Dell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (SBU) Former Defense Minister and Northern Alliance 
commander Marshall Fahim told the Charge on 2/28 that he 
supported President Karzai remaining in office as a caretaker 
president following the 5/22 constitutional expiration of 
Karzai's term.  Fahim broke significantly with his United 
Front colleagues in adamantly asserting that other options 
for an interim government would not be in the country's 
interest.  He called Upper House Speaker Sebghatullah 
Mojaddedi and Pir Gailani incapable of putting together a 
strong government on short notice.  "We've had too many bad 
experiences with them and with interim governments," he said. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Charge told Fahim the U.S. supports an 8/20 
election because it and the international community calculate 
a spring election would be nearly impossible to support 
logistically.  Furthermore, the U.S. believed Karzai should 
remain president during the interim period to maintain a 
stronger central government that was better capable of 
resisting increased Taliban attacks over the summer month. 
He asked Fahim to use his influence in political circles to 
guide the country to a solution that allows the international 
community to support a free and transparent election. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Fahim said Karzai accepts that his term expires on 
5/22 and is trying to find both a legal rationale and 
political consensus that allows him to stay in office.  He 
predicted that UF leaders currently opposed to Karzai 
remaining in office will eventually drop their objections 
once the U.S. position becomes clearer.  No opposition leader 
is preparing to organize street protests if Karzai stays on 
after 5/22, he said.  Fahim promised to help build a 
consensus in favor of Karzai remaining in office and to 
support the 8/20 election date. 
 
¶4. (C) COMMENT.  We believe that Karzai has been working to 
co-opt Fahim into his government and split him from the 
United Front.  If the president succeeds he will have dealt a 
body blow to his strongest opponents.  From Fahim's comments 
we judge that Karzai's strategy is working and we expect the 
president to continue to try to pick off other UF members 
(Hazara leader Mohaqqeq is an obvious next target).  The 
current electoral dilemma was precipitated by Lower House 
Speaker Qanooni and First Vice President Massoud, who sought 
to challenge Karzai's continuing legitimacy as president in 
an effort to damage his re-election prospects.  Karzai 
appears to have deftly turned the tables on them and may 
succeed in dividing the opposition, leaving Qanooni and 
Massoud isolated and struggling to regain the initiative 
(reftel).  There's no better proof than the statements by 
some UF members insisting on an August election, a 180-degree 
turn from their earlier position -- which triggered the 
current dilemma -- that Karzai would be an illegitimate 
president if elections were not held by 5/22. 
DELL