VZCZCXRO2428
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHHK #0499/01 0770826
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 180826Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7165
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MC
SUBJECT: MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE: THREE NON-CANDIDATES IN A 
NON-ELECTION 
 
REF: HONG KONG 92 
 
Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary and comment: In the end, Beijing will choose 
the next Chief Executive (CE) of Macau, due to take office 
December 20 this year at the end of Edmund Ho's second term. 
The only question is which of the three distinct options it 
prefers.  Offering continuity, connections, social standing 
and a certain swagger, Secretary for Social Affairs and 
Culture Fernando Chui Sai-on was until recently the favorite, 
and reportedly has Edmund Ho's support.  However, the 
prosecution of former Secretary for Transportation Ao 
Man-long on corruption charges reportedly put CE Ho out of 
favor in Beijing, and massive cost overruns from Chui's 
management of the East Asian games have left a cloud over his 
candidacy.  The more staid Secretary for Economy and Finance 
Francis Tam Pak-yuen's technocratic ability and 
corruption-free record have won widespread acknowledgment 
that he could do the job, but only tepid support.  While the 
Ao Man-long case put Chui's candidacy on the rocks, it 
propelled Macau-born, Mainland-trained Prosecutor General Ho 
Chio-meng into a dark horse candidacy for the CE-ship that 
some observers believe is gaining ground.  None of these men 
is of the same cut or polish as Edmund Ho, but our contacts 
suggest what Beijing wants right now is a capable 
administrator with clean hands and an obedient demeanor.  End 
summary and comment. 
 
--------------------- 
The Selection Process 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Chief Executive (CE) Edmund Ho Hau-wah's second and 
final term will end December 20.  Macau took the first step 
toward replacing him February 2, when CE Ho appointed the 
five-member Electoral Affairs Committee for the Election of 
the Chief Executive.  This body will oversee the two 
remaining steps in the process: the election of the 
300-person committee that will elect the Chief Executive and 
then the actual CE election.  The 300-person Election 
Committee will be elected by various registered Macau social 
organizations, broken down into four broad sectors.  100 
committee members will come from industry, commerce and 
finance; 80 from culture, education and professions; 80 from 
labor, social services, religious and other groups; and the 
final 40 will be comprised of slightly more than half of the 
Legislative Assembly and representatives from Macau's 
delegations to the National People's Congress and Chinese 
People's Political Consultative Conference.  Registration of 
candidates and groups eligible to participate in this process 
began March 3 and concluded March 17, with the election of 
the committee scheduled for April 26.  Each of the 300 
members of the committee has one nominating vote, and 
candidates for the CE election require 50 nominations. 
Sometime between June 28 and October 20 (date still to be 
determined), the committee will vote from among the nominees 
to select the new CE.  Beijing will review and approve or 
reject the winner shortly thereafter, and the new CE will 
take office on December 20. 
 
¶3. (C) In reality, most observers expect that Beijing will 
have made its preference known in advance, making the 
election a formality.  Our current expectation is that, while 
a second candidate may be nominated for form's sake, an upset 
of any kind is a remote possibility.  Although several people 
have been tipped as contenders for the post, none is actively 
campaigning.  Since Beijing has not yet indicated its 
preference (reftel), none of the candidates wants to be seen 
as running contrary to Beijing's wishes.  Unlike Edmund Ho, 
who for years prior to Macau's 1999 reversion to the PRC 
stood out as the clear choice for CE, the next leader will be 
chosen from a field of distinctly lesser lights.  Three of 
these non-candidates are seen as the front-runners at this 
point (since reftel, businessman and Executive Councilor Ho 
Iat-seng has publicly removed himself from consideration). 
With Edmund Ho seen as having become too big for his britches 
to suit Beijing, both AmCham Macau Chairman Paul Tse 
(strictly protect throughout) and sometime-democratic 
legislator Jose Pereira Coutinho told us March 12 that one of 
Beijing's top criteria will be obedience.  Coutinho also 
expects an end to the one-man rule of the Edmund Ho era, with 
a concomitant rise in the importance of the policy 
secretaries. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Fernando Chui: Old Macau, Recent Scandal 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Fernando Chui 
 
HONG KONG 00000499  002 OF 002 
 
 
comes from a "patriotic" Macau family as established and 
prominent as Edmund Ho's, with a brother and a cousin also 
serving in the Legislative Assembly.  Enjoying extensive 
contacts throughout Macau society and (reportedly) Edmund 
Ho's endorsement, Chui would have been the clear favorite. 
However, the corruption conviction of former Transportation 
Secretary Ao Man-long dealt what our contacts and Macau 
observers feel was a near-mortal blow to Edmund Ho's 
credibility in Beijing, tainting his protege as a result.  In 
addition, Chui faced tough questions related to massive cost 
overruns and use of illegal labor in the construction of the 
East Asian Games stadium in 2005.  That said, no one is 
counting Chui out yet.  AmCham's Tse told the Consul General 
that Chui lunches with senior officers working for fellow 
non-candidate Economy and Finance Secretary Francis Tam to 
flaunt his broad connections.  Tse also described Beijing as 
divided in its view, with the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs 
Office, China's leading policy body on Macau, supporting 
Chui, while others reject him.  Coutinho told us the election 
of Chui (to whom he disparagingly referred as "the fat guy") 
would be a continuation of the Ho administration's corruption 
and rule by Macau's elite, rather than by a leader with 
popular support.  Although he never mentioned running for CE, 
Chui projected a relaxed confidence in a meeting with the 
Consul General March 12, perhaps suggesting he still likes 
his chances. 
 
------------------------------- 
Francis Tam: This Charmless Man 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) For someone widely recognized for his ability and 
regarded as generally free of corruption, Secretary for 
Economy and Finance Francis Tam seems to have few friends. 
That said, he remains the odds-on favorite for those who 
think Beijing will choose ability (and reliability) over 
connections.  AmCham's Tse judges that Tam knows more about 
the economy and the gaming industry than the other candidates 
combined, but lacks popular support, with CE Ho reported to 
have asked him to bow out of the CE race.  Coutinho rates Tam 
as capable and obedient, but argues he has not been in the 
loop for major decisions.  For example, Coutinho claims that 
even fifteen minutes before the results of Macau's expanded 
gaming license tender were announced in 2002, Tam (under 
whose portfolio gaming falls) did not know the winners. 
While he did not address his own prospects, Tam alluded to 
recent corruption scandals, and told the Consul General March 
12 that "people want to see things will be changing for the 
better in some sectors."  That said, while Tam gave us the 
impression that he felt he could implement those changes, he 
also seemed almost resigned to not having the chance. 
 
--------------------------------- 
The Other Ho: Macau's New Sheriff 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) For those who see Beijing reaching for a new broom to 
sweep Macau's corruption-tainted government clean, Prosecutor 
General Ho Chio-meng has become the man to watch.  Following 
Ho's successful prosecution of Ao Man-long in perhaps the 
biggest corruption case in Macau's history, a groundswell of 
support, which includes legislator Coutinho, began propelling 
Ho into consideration as a CE candidate.  At this point, 
Coutinho feels Ho is no longer a dark horse candidate, 
although when pressed, he conceded that Tam stood a good 
chance of edging Ho out.  AmCham's Tse still sees Ho as a 
long shot, but concurs his star has risen.  However, Tse 
reports rumors are now circulating that Ho is not really a 
Macau person, and even that he was planted by Beijing. 
(Note: Though born in Macau, Ho grew up and was educated in 
the Mainland, receiving his initial law degree there and 
working as a judge in Guangdong's High Court before returning 
to Macau in 1990.  He went on to earn a Doctor of Laws degree 
from Beijing University in 2002.)  If not chosen as CE, 
Coutinho suggested Ho might serve as Secretary for 
Administration and Justice under Tam. 
DONOVAN