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DE RUEHFT #0787/01 0791515
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O 201515Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0049
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 000787 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
 
SUBJECT: Grand Coalition Fatigue Sets Off Unrest in State CDUs 
 
REF: Berlin 0275 
 
Classified by: CG Jo Ellen Powell for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  With the September 2009 general election 
approaching, Chancellor Merkel's CDU faces declining poll numbers 
nationally, with gains going largely to the FDP.  (The CDU's 
coalition partner and arch-rival, the SPD, has faced troubling polls 
for months now.)  State CDUs are urging Merkel to abandon her 
centrist line, and appeal more to the CDU's traditional conservative 
base.  A possible state rescue of auto manufacturer Opel, has set off 
further debate on the course of the CDU, with many arguing that the 
CDU needs to take a tougher line against state help.  In 
Baden-Wuerttemberg and Hesse, two states where the CDU governs, there 
is increasing dissatisfaction with the current direction of the 
national party and the Grand Coalition.  While a stronger 
conservative line from Merkel might appeal to these conservative 
state parties, the picture is less clear at the national level.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
B-W CDU: Oettinger Concerned over Drop in Polls 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2.  (U) Baden-Wuertemberg Minister President Guenther Oettinger broke 
ranks with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leadership in an 
interview with the "Hamburger Abendblatt" March 8 saying Chancellor 
Angela Merkel "should take off her Chancellor uniform and put on the 
uniform of the national CDU leader."  Oettinger lashed out at Merkel 
for following a centrist line in ruling with the Social Democratic 
Party (SPD) and neglecting the more conservative party wing. 
Oettinger's sharp criticism came after one poll indicating the CDU's 
popularity has dropped nationally from 37% to 32% (see reftel), while 
another poll shows the CDU at 34%.  Merkel quickly rebuffed 
Oettinger's words saying she always balances her roles as Chancellor 
and CDU Chairperson.  However Oettinger seems to have struck a chord 
with party members who feel Merkel is alienating the party's core 
conservative voters and driving them to the Free Democratic Party 
(FDP). 
¶3.  (C) Oettinger has been critical of the Chancellor's handling of 
the economic crisis and cited her lack of clarity on key issues. 
Regarding the partial state buy-ups of Hypo Real Estate and 
Commerzbank, Oettinger said "We cannot create the impression that the 
CDU is the party of nationalizations."  Although Oettinger 
acknowledged the necessity of compromise in the Grand Coalition, he 
argued that Merkel should state the CDU's initial position clearly 
before negotiating any deals.  Karin Maag, a CDU Bundestag candidate 
in the state, told Pol Spec that the party should make clear that 
state interventions in the banks will end in a future CDU-led 
government. 
¶4.  (C) Matthias Proefrock, Oettinger's personal aide, told Pol Spec 
that Oettinger feels compelled to criticize Merkel to stem the 
erosion of CDU support.  Even in CDU strongholds like 
Baden-Wuerttemberg, the party's numbers have dipped below 40% in the 
polls, while state politicians have a lot at stake in upcoming 
municipal and European Parliament elections.  Maag said that 
Oettinger's criticism was unhelpful as it only made the party look 
divided to the public.  However, Oettinger's remarks mostly drew a 
positive reaction in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where, according to CDU 
Caucus Chief Stefan Mappus, many voters no longer knew what the CDU 
stood for. 
Hesse CDU: Koch is Not the Only Problem 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) In Hesse, the CDU faces similar dissatisfaction with Minister 
President Roland Koch, Merkel's close ally.  Koch has faithfully 
supported the Chancellor since becoming Vice-Chairperson of the 
national CDU in 2006, but his own foibles and close association with 
Merkel have worked against him.  The CDU received a disappointing 
36.8% of the vote in the January 2008 state election, down from 48.8% 
in 2003.  It did only marginally better (37.2%) in the January 2009 
revote, held after the failure to form a government and the SPD's 
famous implosion.  The votes lost by the SPD were picked up by the 
FDP and Greens rather than the CDU.  Many blamed Koch's divisive 
political style for the party's poor result, but the increase in the 
FDP and decline in the CDU's numbers has been a nationwide 
phenomenon. 
 
¶6.  (C) Hesse Finance State Secretary Thomas Schaefer (CDU) told Pol 
Off he blamed the Grand Coalition, not Koch, for the election 
disappointment, saying that voters wanted to see a classic, 
conservative CDU rather than the centrist one of Chancellor Merkel 
and were therefore gravitating toward the FDP.  Unrest has appeared 
within the famously loyal Hesse CDU as rumors have circulated that 
Koch will quit his post following the September election, either to 
become EU Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry or to take a 
cabinet position.  At a March 14 state convention, two Koch loyalists 
failed to gain their spots on the party's list of European Parliament 
delegates, in what has been widely interpreted as a proxy vote 
against Koch and the party's current direction.  While no CDU members 
in Hesse have spoken out as adamantly as those in Baden-Wuerttemberg, 
Schaefer and others feel that the CDU's performance in upcoming 
elections in the state depends largely on Merkel's course at the 
national level. 
 
Opel Hot Potato Splits CDU 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) The discussion of a possible state bailout for troubled auto 
manufacturer Opel has also emerged as a hot potato revealing fissures 
within the party.  Koch and North-Rhine Westphalia Minister President 
Juergen Ruettgers (CDU) remain strongly in favor of helping Opel, as 
their states are home to most of Opel's production.  But many voices 
in the CDU, including Oettinger, have spoken out against helping Opel 
arguing that the business has long been unprofitable.  The split in 
opinion in many cases follows territorial lines, as 
Baden-Wuerttemberg is home to Opel rivals Daimler and Porsche. 
Schaefer argued that Opel and General Motors were operationally 
inseparable (much of GM's research and development is done by Opel) 
and if the U.S. government rescued parent company General Motors, 
Germany would have to act to save Opel as well.  Such a move would 
prove controversial within the CDU and could again push more 
conservative voters to the FDP. 
 
¶8.  (C) COMMENT:  With elections approaching on the national, 
European and municipal level, the CDU must work to overcome voter 
fatigue with the parties in power and mobilize its supporters. 
Merkel faces the challenge of balancing her roles as Chancellor, 
where she must work with the SPD, and candidate, where she will 
campaign against the SPD.  As the campaign begins in earnest, the 
groundswell already apparent in state CDUs for a more conservative 
message that clearly distinguishes the party from rivals is likely to 
grow.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL