VZCZCXRO2348
RR RUEHBZ RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDU #0028 0651557
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061557Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1415
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0788

UNCLAS DURBAN 000028 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: IFP MAKES A CLEAN SWEEP IN KWAZULU NATAL BY-ELECTIONS 
 
1.(U) Summary: Following its sweep of by-elections in KwaZulu 
Natal, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) National Chairperson Ms. 
Zanele Magwaza Msibi expressed confidence that the IFP will 
reclaim the province of KwaZulu Natal from the African National 
Congress (ANC) in the April 22 general elections. The IFP's 
decisive defeat of its biggest rival, the ANC, is a big boost to 
its general election campaign. End summary. 
 
IFP Still in Control, ANC Defeated 
 
¶2. (U) The IFP won all three March 4 by-elections held in areas 
of KwaZulu Natal considered to the party's strongholds, 
including Jozini, Hlabisa and Mandeni. The IFP also won a ward 
previously controlled by the ANC in the Mbabazane local 
municipality. In a statement issued by the IFP in reaction to 
the results, KZN Premier Candidate and National Chairperson Ms. 
Zanele Magwaza-Msibi said `if you wanted an indication of the 
mood in the ground in the run-up to the general election, you 
got it.' She also said, `the wave is turning our way.' 
 
¶3. (U) Ms. Magwaza-Msibi expressed confidence that by-election 
results are proof that IFP's support is growing ahead of the 
general election. She said the IFP defeated the ANC in Mbabazane 
despite intense campaigning by Premier Sibusiso Ndebele in the 
area. Ms. Magwaza-Msibi further said `the ANC went out in full 
force, armed with government sponsored food parcels.' 
 
¶4. (U) ANC Spokesperson Ms. Nomfundo Mcetshwa told Pol/Econ 
Assistant that the ANC is disappointed at the results, 
especially the loss of its ward in Mbabazane. She said the 
party's provincial election committee will look into what went 
wrong in Mbabazane and other areas. However, Ms. Mcetshwa was 
quick to point out that the ANC remain confident of winning 
about 60 percent of the provincial vote in the April 22 general 
election. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: IFP's clean sweep of the recent by-elections 
gives the party a much needed boost in its attempt to reclaim 
the province from the ANC. The ANC had expected to do well, 
after deploying senior leaders and taking advantage of the 
current election campaigning momentum. But the ANC failed to 
make substantial inroads in rural areas, which have long been 
considered to be IFP strongholds. Failure by the ANC to retain 
its ward in Mbabazane is a serious blow and shows that the IFP 
is still a force in KZN and that forthcoming national elections 
may not be as easy as the ANC in KZN seems to think. 
 
DERDERIAN