VZCZCXRO0522
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0183/01 0851207
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261207Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3564
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PMIL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS 
HEAD" 
 
REF: CONAKRY 0169 
 
Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Following his private meeting with CNDD 
President Moussa Dadis Camara and 2nd Vice President Sekouba 
Konate, opposition leader Sidya Toure described an 
inseparable leadership duo caught in the middle of a 
political and economic mess from which they have no idea how 
to extricate themselves.  Dadis is reportedly deeply worried 
about the lack of discipline within the military, but 
hesitant to try and address the problem for fear of sparking 
a mutiny or a counter-coup.  On the economic front, Dadis is 
apparently expecting a $100 million "gift" from China to keep 
the national budget afloat.  However, he has been quiet on 
elections even after receiving the proposed transition 
timeline from Les Forces Vives.  Sidya also commented on his 
own developing relationship with the CNDD leadership and an 
ideological fracture within Les Forces Vives.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
THE DADIS AND KONATE TEAM 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with former Prime Minister and 
opposition political leader (UFR) Sidya Toure on March 25. 
Sidya had spent more than an hour with CNDD President Moussa 
Dadis Camara and the 2nd Vice President, Sekouba Konate, in a 
private meeting at Camp Alpha Yaya on March 20.  Sidya said 
that the two leaders are inseparable and that Dadis relies 
heavily on Konate's judgment and advice.  He described Dadis 
as more of a dreamer while Konate is someone who keeps both 
feet on solid ground.  According to Sidya, Konate has a much 
better grasp of the practical realities facing the CNDD. 
"Dadis is more theoretical...he talks about patriotism and 
morality, but he doesn't really understand the challenges 
ahead," Sidya commented. 
 
¶3.  (C) Later in the discussion, Sidya said that he thought 
that both Dadis and Konate were just beginning to feel the 
"weight of power."  He was convinced that neither leader is 
interested in remaining in power, but that they seem to have 
gotten themselves into a mess that they do not know how to 
get out of.  According to Sidya, the people around the 
president, particularly the civilian ministers, are a big 
part of the problem.  "They keep giving bad advice, basically 
reinforcing the weaknesses of the last regime...and they have 
no interest in handing power over to a new group." 
 
----------------------------- 
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE MILITARY 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Aside from Dadis' crusade against corruption and 
narcotics, which Sidya believed Dadis sees as a personal 
moral responsibility to his country, Dadis is preoccupied 
with the question of military reform.  "The army is his 
biggest problem and he doesn't know what to do about it," 
Sidya said.  Citing the almost complete lack of military 
discipline and chaotic disorder at Camp Alpha Yaya, Sidya 
said that handing power over to civilians before the 
government has established firm control over the military 
would only escalate the country's political instability.  At 
the same time, Sidya commented that Dadis' own position is 
too precarious for him to try and institute any reforms since 
doing so could spark an immediate revolt or counter-coup. 
"It's not just about elections and handing power back...we 
have to be sure that we can hold onto that power." 
 
---------------- 
GIFTS FROM CHINA 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Sidya was also concerned about the country's 
deteriorating economic situation, which is characterized by a 
deepening recession, diminishing government revenues, and 
endemic poverty.  When Pol/Econ Chief asked if Dadis and 
Konate had a plan to address these issues, Sidya laughed 
uncomfortably.  "Sure...the Chinese have promised them $100 
million so they plan to use that to stay afloat."  Sidya 
attributed this strategy to one of the president's civilian 
ministers.  He said it was not at all clear what the Chinese 
expect to gain in return, although mining concessions would 
probably figure in, but "they certainly aren't going to hand 
us $100 million just because they like us."  Sidya added that 
certain ministers are also lobbying Libya for cash donations. 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
CONAKRY 00000183  002 OF 003 
 
 
NOTHING NEW ON ELECTIONS 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C) On the question of elections, Sidya confirmed that 
Les Force Vives had formally passed their transition proposal 
to Dadis last week (reftel).  However, when asked whether 
Dadis would accept the proposal, Sidya said he did not know 
as Les Forces Vives had not received a response. 
 
------------------------------ 
NEED TO GET ECOWAS ON OUR SIDE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) During the course of his discussion with Dadis, Sidya 
said he advised him that his number one priority should be to 
reach out to the international community and repair 
relationships.  He specifically told Dadis that he needed to 
define his transition plan and then get ECOWAS board.  "I 
told him that if he can get ECOWAS on our side, everyone else 
will have no choice but to follow."  However, Sidya commented 
that one of Dadis' problems is that he doesn't have a clear 
vision of how he plans to proceed.  "I keep telling him that 
it is critical that he articulate a strategic vision," Sidya 
said. 
 
----------------------------- 
A ROLE FOR SIDYA IN THE JUNTA 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) According to Sidya, Dadis welcomed his advice and 
even offered to give him an official government position. 
Sidya declined, reportedly telling Dadis that as the leader 
of an opposition political party, it would be inappropriate 
for him to serve in Dadis' government.  Nevertheless, Dadis 
apparently asked him to provide occasional advice, which 
Sidya said he would be willing to do. 
 
¶9.  (C) Pol/Econ Chief remarked on the fact that Dadis had 
recently named Sidya to a new mining commission established 
to review the country's mining contracts (septel).  Sidya 
said the appointment reflects Dadis' confidence in his 
judgment, but that the commission's role and responsibilities 
are not yet clear. 
 
------------------------------------ 
THE FRACTURE WITHIN LES FORCES VIVES 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (C) In response to a question about unity within Les 
Forces Vives, Sidya readily admitted that the loose 
association of political and civil leaders is deeply divided. 
 "We're fractured into two groups...I'm on one side and Alpha 
Conde (RPG) is on the other."  According to Sidya, this 
divide is primarily ideological and related not to a 
difference of opinion over the course of the transition, but 
rather, over two diverse forces competing for eventual 
control of the country.  He noted that union leader Dr. 
Ibrahima Fofana has sided with Alpha Conde while rival union 
leader Sera Rabiatou Diallo has sided with Sidya. 
 
¶11.  (C) Before ending the meeting, Pol/Econ Chief asked 
Sidya why the controversial millionaire turned political 
party leader, Mamadou Syllah, was able to nab a seat at the 
bargaining table as a member of Les Forces Vives.  Shrugging 
his shoulders, Sidya said "you'll have to ask the others 
because frankly, I don't understand it...I've been asking 
myself the same question." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (C) It appears as if Dadis may have changed his tune 
when it comes to Sidya Toure since Sidya's name figured 
prominently on the CNDD's list of economic predators, and 
Dadis publicly identified Sidya as one of the corrupt former 
government officials responsible for Guinea's current 
economic and political crisis.  Dadis is now apparently 
seeking Sidya's advice and naming him to one of his 
commissions.  A CNDD insider recently commented that Sidya 
has been lobbying to be prime minister, and that Dadis is 
looking on the possibility favorably (septel).  However, 
Sidya's comments to Pol/Econ Chief suggest that he is trying 
to walk a delicate line, balancing between distancing himself 
from the junta while trying to influence its leaders. 
 
¶13.  (C) While not necessarily pro-Dadis or pro-CNDD, 
especially since Sidya's ultimate goal is to become 
president, he seemed to sympathize with Dadis.  According to 
 
CONAKRY 00000183  003 OF 003 
 
 
Sidya, Dadis is simply an inexperienced young military 
captain who has bitten off way more than he can chew.  He 
seemed to think that Dadis is probably sincere in his 
intentions, committed to lofty if perhaps unattainable 
ideals, but woefully unaware of the practical realities and 
challenges of running a country.  Continued international 
pressure for elections, a weakening economy, a loaded 
transition agenda, and an out of control military are 
converging issues that are proving difficult to reconcile. 
END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC