R 200823Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3023
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 000072 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SF PGOV ELAB KDEM
SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH WESTERN CAPE COSATU SECRETARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Tony Ehrenreich, the outgoing Western Cape 
provincial secretary for the Congress of South African Trade 
Unions (COSATU) told Econoff that while he was confident the 
new ANC government and presumptive new President Jacob Zuma 
would be more receptive to labor concerns and pro-poor 
policies, they will have a difficult time challenging the 
national Treasury's bureaucratic primacy --  particularly if 
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel sticks around.  Although he 
acknowledged that not every Zuma backer had the same 
perspective on economic policy, Ehrenreich believes that the 
union federation's support for Zuma will make it difficult 
for him to dismiss organized labor in the fashion of former 
President Thabo Mbeki.  In Western Cape, Ehrenreich said 
COSATU is actively campaigning for the ANC, but he further 
noted the ANC "doesn't have a snowball's chance" of winning 
the province in the April 22 elections, but he noted that 
this was not a major concern, given provincial government's 
limited role.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Bio note: Ehrenreich, COSATU provincial secretary 
for 13 years, is regarded as one of the labor movement's most 
articulate and skilled leaders, as well as an effective 
organizer.  However, he has drawn fire for his public 
pronouncements that the ANC would lose Western Cape, 
prompting speculation that he would join the breakaway 
Congress of the People (COPE).  A COPE defection does not 
appear on the cards, but -- probably in part due to the 
controversy -- Ehrenreich is stepping down at the end of his 
term; he told Econoff he would be departing office in June. 
Ehrenreich, who is in his 40s, said he did not know what he's 
going to do next, though he hopes to continue working in 
organized labor.  End bio note. 
 
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ANC ECONOMIC DECISIONMAKING: THE TROUBLE WITH TREVOR 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Ehrenreich said he was very optimistic about a Jacob 
Zuma-led ANC government, as he thinks this government will 
advocate the party's policies and not act independently.  ANC 
policy for years has advocated pro-poor and pro-worker 
policies; the resolutions at the December 2007 Polokwane 
conference made this emphasis even more explicit.  However, 
he noted, Thabo Mbeki's government did not take these party 
directives into account when making government policy -- he 
largely ignored the protestations of alliance partners COSATU 
and the South African Communist Party.  Ehrenreich said the 
operation of the National Economic Development and Labor 
Council (NEDLAC) was a good case in point.  NEDLAC was 
designed to be a forum for the government, business, and 
organized labor to share views on economic policy, but 
Ehrenreich said that government departments -- particularly 
Trade and Industry and the Treasury -- generally ignored the 
council's position papers, particularly those with 
significant inputs from organized labor. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ehrenreich held out particular contempt for Finance 
Minister Trevor Manuel, who he said operates with impunity 
and through control of the Treasury essentially dictates the 
government's economic priorities.  Ehrenreich described 
Manuel's 2009 budget as "his giving the finger to the ANC," 
saying that the Finance Minister largely ignored ANC 
resolutions to expand access to social welfare programs in 
favor of cutting taxes on the wealthy.  He acknowledged, 
however, that Manuel's global standing -- his 
quickly-rescinded October 2008 resignation announcement after 
Mbeki's ouster caused the rand to briefly plummet -- will 
QMbeki's ouster caused the rand to briefly plummet -- will 
make it hard for Zuma to push him out right away.  Manuel 
also benefits from being a sklled politician; Ehrenreich 
said, "he's so good that even the people he gives the finger 
to like him." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Manuel will eventually leave, but Ehrenreich said 
that the new government will still face a challenge in 
changing the institutional culture at Treasury, Trade and 
Industry, and other economic departments.  (Comment: 
Ehrenreich's views of Treasury and Trade and Industry in the 
same light are interesting, given that Treasury is widely 
viewed as actively opposed to many Trade and Industry 
initiatives aimed at the creation of a "developmental state." 
 End comment.)  Civil servants at Treasury in particular have 
a great deal of power and independence, and it will prove 
difficult for Zuma and his Cabinet to rein them in. 
Wholesale changes will be necessary, he noted, if South 
Africa will pursue the ANC goal of a developmental state. 
 
------------------------------------- 
FUTURE LOOKING (RELATIVELY) BRIGHT... 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Asked whether he trusted Zuma to follow through on 
his promises to pursue more pro-poor policies, Ehrenreich 
acknowledged that Zuma's rise came from an "unholy alliance" 
with disparate views on economic policy united only by their 
distaste for Mbeki.  However, Ehrenreich believes that 
COSATU's unwavering backing of Zuma will give it a great deal 
of influence with him, far more than they ever had with 
Mbeki.  Furthermore, he does not think Zuma is someone who 
will buck ANC policies, which are clearly pro-poor and 
pro-worker. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ehrenreich had no insights as to whom Zuma will 
appoint to his Cabinet in economic portfolios, but he thinks 
COSATU "missed the boat" when it came to pushing for names on 
the ANC national election list.  Not many COSATU leaders were 
on it, and given that the President has very limited ability 
to appoint Cabinet ministers not on the list, Ehrenreich 
doubts the labor movement will be well-represented in the 
Cabinet.  Asked who the congress would like to see in 
Cabinet, Ehrenreich cited South African Revenue Service chief 
Pravin Gordhan, Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Rob 
Davies, and Communist Party stalwart Jeremy Cronin as people 
who would be sympathetic to organized labor.  However, he 
noted that many leading lights in the union movement had been 
"seduced" by power and money after joining government, so 
it's impossible to say how seemingly supportive ministers 
will pan out. 
 
---------------------------------- 
...BUT NOT FOR ANC IN WESTERN CAPE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) While optimistic that the ANC will win comfortably 
on a national level on April 22, Ehrenreich bluntly stated 
the party "doesn't have a snowball's chance" in Western Cape. 
 He said internal projections put the ANC's provincial 
support at around 26 percent, which he thinks will rise to 
about 30 percent on election day.  He pinned the blame for 
this on the vicious battle for control in the province 
between former Premier Ebrahim Rasool and former party leader 
Mcebisi Skwatsha, which seriously weakened the party's 
structures.  Ehrenreich noted that these problems were 
brewing for a long time, but that no one in the ANC's Luthuli 
House headquarters in Johannesburg took them seriously until 
it was too late.  However, he noted that the loss of Western 
Cape for the ANC would not have much effect either on COSATU 
or on governance as a whole given the predominance of 
national government. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Nonetheless, COSATU is campaigning hard for the ANC 
throughout the province; Ehrenreich claimed COSATU is the 
ANC's only effective structure here.  Ehrenreich said the 
congress has been active in deploying its estimated 250,000 
members in the province to electioneer, both door-to-door and 
in workplaces.  COSATU holds lunch time talks on political 
issues, and Ehrenreich gave Econoff a copy of the pamphlet 
that organizers hand out.  Entitled, "Defend Our Movement: 
Advance the Gains of Polokwane!  Expose and Isolate the Black 
DA!", the 14-page anti-COPE document lays out the reasons why 
COSATU supports the ANC and (at times vitriolically) attacks 
COPE as an inherently anti-worker organization.  Ehrenreich 
said COSATU has held some rallies and is holding one on March 
17 in Cape Town that he expects to attract 5,000 people. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
BULLISH ON COSATU'S FUTURE IN PROVINCE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Ehrenreich said he felt he's leaving provincial 
COSATU in good stead.  Although the provincial congress is 
only about the fourth or fifth largest in the country, he 
said he feels Western Cape COSATU is probably the most 
dynamic provincial structure in the country, actively 
engaging with local civic organizations far more than other 
provincial structures.  He said it is tougher to attract new 
members than it was in the 1980s and 1990s, when the labor 
movement's involvement in the liberation struggle gave it 
extensive credibility.  Ehrenreich said he was happy with the 
level of new joiners.  He said that new members come from a 
broader racial and socioeconomic profile than in the past, 
noting that call centers based in Cape Town have become a hot 
new bed of recruitment. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Ehrenreich said the organization's main priority in 
the near term is to continue to expand and broaden its base 
of support, as well as to better engage with vibrant civil 
society organizations in the province.  Sectorally, 
Ehrenreich noted that he hoped COSATU would expand its reach 
in the agricultural arena, where few of the unions are COSATU 
members.  While COSATU frequently engages with these 
independent unions, he thinks all would benefit from a more 
formalized, closer relationship. 
 
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KEEN ON US OUTREACH 
------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) At the end of the meeting, Ehrenreich asked if the 
Mission still offered International Visitor training 
programs.  He said he'd gone on one several years ago and 
found it tremendously valuable.  When told that they were, he 
offered to introduce Econoff to up-and-coming labor leaders 
in the province who might be good beneficiaries, something 
Econoff welcomed and will follow up on in conjunction with 
RLO in Johannesburg. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶13. (SBU) Ehrenreich's departure will be sorely missed by 
Western Cape COSATU, and we will watch with interest as to 
where he ends up next.  His openness and candor are 
refreshing to us, but one can see how they would not 
necessarily be appreciated qualities in ANC circles or among 
COSATU's national leadership.  While his trust that a Jacob 
Zuma administration will prove more friendly to organized 
labor than that of Thabo Mbeki is probably accurate -- though 
the details remain to be seen -- it remains to be seen to 
what degree Zuma and his deputies will be willing and able to 
take on generally pro-market policies inherited from Mbeki, 
particularly in light of the global economic crisis. 
 
 
MAYBERRY