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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000229 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: EARLY ELECTION IN AUSTRALIA? 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d) 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: There is increasing speculation among 
political insiders and observers that Prime Minister Rudd may 
call an early election this year before the global economic 
crisis starts to drive up unemployment, and to take advantage 
of his popularity and divisions in the Opposition.  To call 
an election before July 1, 2010, Rudd would need to trigger a 
double dissolution, which would require the Senate to reject 
a bill for the second time, three months after the first 
rejection.  While double-dissolution elections have been held 
six times in Australia's history, technically, it is in the 
hands of the Coalition whether an election will be called 
this year since they can always support any 
previously-rejected bill upon reintroduction.   Even if Rudd 
waits another 18 months, the discussion of an early election 
gives Rudd considerable leverage to push legislation through 
the Senate as long as the Opposition fears going to the 
polls.  END SUMMARY. 
 
WHY THE SPECULATION? 
 
¶2. (U) An increasing number of observers are predicting that 
Rudd will go to the polls late this year to avoid maximum 
fall-out from the economic downturn.  Unemployment, for 
example, which dipped below four percent a year ago, is 
predicted to double by mid 2010.  Proponents note that Rudd's 
Australian Labor Party's (ALP) National Conference has been 
moved forward from January 2010 to July 31 2009, the 
Queensland ALP Government will go to the polls early on March 
21 instead of September as initially expected, and the 
Liberal Party opposition is divided and way behind in the 
polls.  In December 2007, Liberal Federal Political Director 
Brian Loughnane remarked that "our operating assumption is 
that we must be ready for another election in two years - it 
has been Labor's track record to go early if they can." 
Australian history shows first-term governments are almost 
always returned, but with a reduced majority.  The last time 
a first-term government lost office was in 1931 during the 
Depression. 
 
HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN? 
 
¶3. (U) A normal election, as occurred in 2007, takes place 
every three years and involves an election for the entire 
House of Representatives, and half of the Senate.  By law, 
the earliest such an election can be called is July 1, 2010. 
A House of Representatives-only election can be called at any 
time (and held a minimum of 33 days after dissolution of the 
House), but a House-only election would put the House and 
Senate terms out of sync, meaning a half-Senate election 
would still have to be held before July 1 2011 - there is no 
indication the government is considering this option.  The 
only other option, and the one most discussed, is a a double 
dissolution election, which would involve an election of the 
entire upper and lower house.  For Rudd to exercise this 
option, the Senate must twice reject a Bill passed by the 
House, with the second rejection occurring at least three 
months after the first.  The emissions trading scheme and 
industrial relations legislation are the most obvious 
triggers, but double-dissolution elections have often been 
based on minor issues, put in the spotlight once the 
Government decided it needed an excuse, and quickly forgotten 
thereafter.  Rudd's plan to increase the tax on pre-packaged 
Qthereafter.  Rudd's plan to increase the tax on pre-packaged 
mixed drinks (known as the "alcopops tax"), for example, 
could be the trigger. 
 
RUDD'S MARGIN: SOLID NOT HUGE 
 
¶4. (U) Rudd's ALP holds 83 seats in the House, the Coalition 
64, and independents three.  To win back a majority, the 
Liberal-National Party Coalition requires 12 seats and a 
uniform swing of three percent.  There was a 1.4 percent 
swing against the popular Hawke ALP government when it sought 
a second term at an early election in 1984 - a uniform 1.4 
percent swing against the Rudd government would cost it eight 
seats, meaning it would barely hold government. 
 
WHAT INSIDERS SAY 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Former Liberal Party Leader John Hewson told the 
Charge that Rudd would call an early election, otherwise 
unemployment "will kill" him.  Former Liberal Party federal 
director Andrew Robb, the Shadow Minister for Infrastructure, 
 
CANBERRA 00000229  002 OF 002 
 
 
COAG, and Emissions Trading, agrees, believing the political 
landscape will worsen for Rudd as unemployment grows. 
However, Liberal MP Chris Pyne - one of the Opposition 
Leader's inner circle and the manager of Opposition Business 
in the House of Representatives - said the Coalition was 
determined not to provide a trigger, and he was doubtful it 
was in Rudd's best interests to call an early poll.  Pyne 
noted he thought the economy would start to improve in 2010. 
New South Wales Liberal Senator Marise Payne told us low 
financial resources would also hold her party back from 
triggering a double dissolution.  ALP Assistant National 
Secretary Nick Martin told us there appeared to be a "clear 
preference" among the ALP hierarchy for the government to run 
close to a full term, but that "weird and wacky things happen 
in politics," and that it might be too tempting to resist an 
opportunity to go early. 
 
NO STAMPEDE TO THE POLLS, BUT DON'T RULE IT OUT 
 
¶6. (C/NF) COMMENT: We doubt that Rudd has made a decision. 
Speculation that he is interested in an early election 
strengthens his hand in dealing with a Senate where Labor 
needs Green and independent support to pass legislation that 
the Opposition does not support.  There appears to be no 
sense of urgency in the ALP to rush to the polls.  Rudd - who 
has said he is against politicians manipulating election 
dates and is in favor of fixed parliamentary terms - would 
likely prefer a major issue to use as a double dissolution 
trigger.  On the other hand, previous governments have used 
unimportant bills as triggers.  It is improbable the 
Coalition will vote against the government's industrial 
relations legislation as it is desperate to dump its 
"WorkChoices" baggage.  The government's emissions trading 
scheme could be another double dissolution trigger, but the 
economic downturn means there are risks for the government in 
calling an election on this issue. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED: Since the beginning of the year, 
 Rudd and his colleagues have been upfront with the public 
that unemployment will get worse, yet the Government has 
maintained its strong standing in the polls, and there is 
widespread support for its economic stimulus packages. 
Economic management, however, is the Coalition's strongest 
asset.  If former Treasurer Peter Costello, whom the public 
sees as a strong and experienced economic manager, stays in 
politics and contests the Liberal Party leadership, that may 
be a factor in the Government's early election 
considerations. 
 
CLUNE