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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000171 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2024 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ST XL
SUBJECT: ANTIGUA RETURNS UPP TO POWER; ALP HEADS TO COURT 
 
Classified By: Charge d,Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C)  Antigua and Barbuda's ruling United Progressive 
Party(UPP) won a closely contested election March 12, taking 
nine of the 17 seats and retaining its majority in 
parliament, but losing three previously-held seats in an 
election marred by delays and technical difficulties.  Among 
the seats lost by the UPP was the seat held by the respected 
Finance Minister, Errol Cort.  Soon after the election, PM 
Spencer shuffled the cabinet, shifting portfolios of the 
remaining UPP MPs and creating a new Ministry of State 
Security by merging Justice and National Defense -- and then 
promptly appointing Cort, now an unelected Senator, to serve 
as Security Minister.  Despite losing, the opposition Antigua 
Labor Party (ALP) was heartened by its ability to pick up 
three seats and has vowed to contest at least three other 
seats in court due to 
what it termed "disenfranchisement" of voters caused by 
delays in opening some polling stations on election day. 
Having Cort in the Security chair should give a boost to our 
security relationship; having him out of the finance 
ministry, though, could slow our WTO gaming case talks. 
End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
UPP Wins Close Victory 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (C)   After a hotly contested campaign that saw sporadic 
violence and sensational allegations on both sides Antigua 
and Barbuda's March 12 general election returned the United 
Progressive Party (UPP) to power with a slim majority of 9 of 
17 seats.  The Antigua Labour Party (ALP) won 7 seats, adding 
three seats from the previous election.  Trevor Walker of the 
Barbados People's Movement (BPM) won the lone seat 
representing the island of Barbuda, and has pledged to 
support the UPP government.  Despite losing significant 
ground in the election, PM Spencer put a positive spin on the 
outcome, stating that he was surprised that the UPPdid not 
win more comfortably.  According to one LP campaigner, 
internal polls had them winning i two other districts, the 
district won by the UPPs Harold Lovell and the seat won by 
John Maginle.  Moreover, he noted the ALP candidate on 
Barbua, Arthur Nibbs lost by only one vote, meaning theALP 
could have won 10 seats with the shift of a ew votes. 
 
---------------------- 
Election Day onfusion 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) On eletion day, polling stations in several electoral 
istricts did not open on time.  Six of the 17 consituencies 
opened late, ranging from two to six hurs late.  One of the 
hottest contested constituecies, St. Mary's North, saw 
considerable delays on Election Day: voting had been 
scheduled to begin at 6 a.m.,  but voting in all four of the 
St. Mary's polling centers opened late.  The polling station 
staff, ready at 6:00 a.m., waited with their hands tied as 
officials failed to deliver election materials on time. 
Delays ranged from three to five hours as voters braved first 
rain and then heat to cast their votes.  Election monitors 
witnessed elderly and handicapped individuals waiting for 
hours in line before and after the polls opened.  Voters 
remained calm and no incidents were observed, but complaints 
and conspiracy theories were heard 
up and down the line of voters.  The worst delays were seen 
in the St. John's Rural West district, the district of Prime 
Minister Baldwin Spencer, where voting did not start until 
noon -- a full six hours after the scheduled opening. 
 
¶4. (U) Several voters complained that they needed to return 
to work and would not be able to return to vote due to 
scheduling conflicts.  The GOAB allowed all employees four 
hours off, with pay, in order to vote.  In St. Mary's 
North, which was won by the ALP's Molwyn Joseph by 21 votes, 
voter turnout was significantly lower that the national 
average of almost 85 percent.  It is impossible to tell if 
the late start affected the outcome in the closer 
constituencies, but OAS election monitors and others agreed 
that the election, truncated though it was, should be 
characterized as free and fair. 
 
--------------------------------- 
ALP to Challenge Election Results 
--------------------------------- 
¶5.  (C) Opposition Leader and former PM Lester Bird has 
called for election runoffs in three districts -- St. John's 
Rural West (the district won by PM Spencer); the constituency 
of Barbuda, won by Trevor Walker; and St. 
John's City East, the district won by UPP candidate John 
Maginley.  Bird contended publicly that the voters were 
"disenfranchised" due to the late opening.  (Note: PolOff was 
the OAS election observer in City West and can confirm that 
that constituency opened on time.)  The ALP is seeking a 
legal injunction to prevent those members from being seated. 
ALP MP Robin Yearwood explained that if Spencer cannot be 
seated due to court order, then Chester Hughes, the PM's 
recently appointed deputy, would assume the premiership. 
However, other political commentators have speculated that if 
all three contested constituencies could not be seated then 
the ALP would hold a majority until the courts come to a 
decision or run-off elections are held. 
 
¶6. (C)  Despite failing to retake the majority, the swing of 
three seats back to the ALP is a sign that the party of the 
Birds -- long infamous as one of the region's most corrupt 
governments -- is still a force in Antiguan politics.  The 
stigma of corruption continues to dog the party, but as new 
younger candidates come to the fore and the party steps out 
of the shadow of the Bird family, it can be expected to make 
gains.  Young candidates like Gail Christian, age 32, who 
lost by only a few hundred votes to PM Baldwin 
Spencer in the largest constituency on the island, could very 
well take that seat in the next election. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Entrenched ALP stalwarts such as the wealthy 
Syrian-Antiguan Hadeed family were backing the ALP heavily in 
this election after bankrolling the UPP's ascension to power 
in the 2004 election.  The Hadeeds are concerned that Spencer 
could try to nationalize their power plant, which provides 50 
percent of the island's electricity.  On the morning after 
the election one of the Hadeed clan was seen speaking to the 
BPM's Trevor Walker, seeking to persuade him not to caucus 
with the UPP.  Walker's importance to both sides was 
illustrated when Spencer awarded him the potentially 
lucrative and highly 
sought-after Ministry of Transportation and Public Works, 
with its control of contracting for infrastructure projects 
and hundreds of jobs.  With Walker locked up, even if the ALP 
were able to obtain a runoff in the three seats that 
they are seeking, they would have to win two of the three to 
wrest control from the UPP -- a feat that is looking less and 
less likely as the dust settles. 
 
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Cort Loses Seat 
--------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  Former Finance Minister Errol Cort lost his closely 
contested rematch with former PM Bird by 71 votes.  Bird, who 
dubbed himself the "comeback kid," expressed to the Charge in 
August, 2008 his confidence that he could take back the seat 
from Cort.  Newly re-elected ALP MP Robin Yearwood lamented 
to PolOff soon after the election that a UPP win and a Cort 
loss was the worst possible 
outcome of the elections.  Cort is well respected by all 
sides, he noted, and it would be a loss for the Antiguan 
people if he were not in the Government.  Had Cort won and 
the ALP won he would likely have remained Finance Minister, 
former UPP Minister of State-turned-ALP supporter Aziz Hadeed 
said in a post election meeting.  The constitution requires 
that the Finance Minister be a seated member of parliament, 
so to keep Cort in the government PM Spencer increased the 
role of the Justice Ministry, renaming it the Ministry of 
National Security, and appointed Cort as its first Minister. 
 
 
-------------------- 
The New Look Cabinet 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Cabinet Changes: 
 
-- Attorney General Justin Simon will retain his portfolio as 
attorney general. 
 
-- Minister Wilmoth Daniel, former Minister of Public Works, 
will take esponsibility for the Ministry of Health, Social 
Transformation and Consumer Affairs. 
 
-- Minister Harold Lovell, former Minister of Tourism, will 
take responsibility for the Ministry of Finance and Public 
Administration. 
 
-- Minister John Maginley, former Minister of Health, will 
take responsibility for the Ministry of Tourism, Civil 
Aviation and Culture. 
 
-- Minister Jacqui Quinn-Leandro, former Minister of Labor, 
will take responsibility for Education, Gender, Sport and 
Youth Affairs. 
 
-- Minister Hilson Baptiste, former Minister of Social 
Transformation, will take responsibility for the Ministry of 
Agriculture, Lands, Housing and the Environment. 
 
-- Minister Trevor Walker (BPM), former Minister of State for 
Utilities, will take responsibility for the Ministry of 
Works, Transportation and Labor. 
 
-- Minister Errol Cort, former Minister of Finance, will take 
responsibility for the newly formed Ministry of National 
Security.  The new ministry will encompass the former 
Ministry of Justice and Defense positions previously held by 
Senator Colin Derrick and PM Spencer respectively. 
 
-- MP Chester Hughes was named Deputy Prime Minister and will 
hold various responsibilities in the government. 
 
 
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Comment 
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¶10.  (C)  The UPP's return to power keeps in the premiership 
a PM who is favorably disposed toward the U.S. despite his 
left leaning political orientation and consistently strong 
backing for Cuba.  During and after U.S. elections, Spencer 
publicly registered his strong support for President Obama, 
including by renaming his country's highest peak "Mount 
Obama."  This enthusiasm suggests Spencer would welcome 
closer engagement with the U.S.  It is encouraging that 
Spencer was keen to retain his most competent and respected 
minister, Errol Cort, in a top job, and has handed the 
Senator a broad and significant portfolio that will invovle 
extensive interaction with the U.S.  With Cort as MINSEC, we 
should expect progress on our security agenda -- everything 
from MLAT requests and ship visits to a PSI shipboarding 
agreement and possibly a SOFA.  At the same time, Cort's 
departure from Finance will set back our continuing talks to 
resolve the WTO gaming issue as new faces familiarize 
themselves with the case.  HARDT 
HARDT