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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000303 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 
TAGS: PREL IR PGOV GM BO UP MD SU GZ IS
SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON THE MARCH 16-17 EU GAERC MEETING 
 
REF: A. 3/16 GIAUQUE E-MAIL 
     ¶B. BERLIN 291 
     ¶C. BERLIN 301 
     ¶D. BERLIN 298 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( 
B) AND (D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  Germany expects a full agenda at the EU 
General Affairs and External Relations (GAERC) next week, 
with extensive discussion of the implications of the economic 
crisis on the eastern neighbors, recent developments in 
Sudan, Belarus, and the Western Balkans.  Germany is highly 
concerned that Ukraine especially is facing an unstable 
political system due to the economic crisis, but is uncertain 
how the EU could help.  On Sudan, Germany does not expect the 
EU to issue another statement in the near future.  Germany 
shares our concerns about recent backsliding in Bosnia & 
Herzegovina, and is engaged regularly with Bosnian leaders at 
the highest level to press them to fulfill the "Five Plus Two 
Agenda" (Ref B).  Germany also expects Belarus to consume 
significant time during the GAERC as the EU is having trouble 
reaching a consensus on how to handle the sanctions regime 
writ large (Ref C).  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) Post delivered ref A points on the March 16-17 EU 
GAERC to Deputy Correspondent Thomas Schieb and followed up 
with him March 13 to get his reactions.  Post also delivered 
the points to the Chancellery and followed up with individual 
MFA offices to reinforce the message and to get a fuller 
read-out.  See ref B for the readout on Bosnia and ref C for 
the reaction to our points on Belarus. 
 
GROWING GAERC AGENDA 
 
¶3. (C) Schieb said that the agenda for the March 16-17 EU 
GAERC was getting longer and longer every day, with the 
following issues now scheduled for discussion: Belarus, 
Western Balkans, Sudan, transatlantic relations and the 
Middle East.  The last two topics are to be discussed over 
lunch.  He said that conclusions on Afghanistan would also be 
adopted, but without discussion.  Those conclusions will 
address, among other things, the deployment of an EU observer 
mission for the Afghan presidential elections in August and 
the strengthening of the EU police mission (EUPOL). 
 
POLITICAL DIRECTORS TO DISCUSS UKRAINE/MOLDOVA AND SUDAN 
 
¶4. (C) Schieb noted that political directors would meet 
separately, on the margins of the GAERC, to discuss two 
further issues: 1) the political and security implications of 
the economic crisis on the eastern neighbors (especially 
Ukraine and Moldova) and 2) the latest developments in Sudan. 
 On Ukraine, Schieb said Germany was "very concerned" about 
the domestic political situation and feared that there was a 
very real possibility of a collapse of the state.  He said 
Germany did not have any particular ideas about how the EU 
could be helpful, but thought it was important to discuss in 
any case.  On Sudan, Schieb said that Germany agreed with the 
U.S. evaluation of the situation and also did not believe 
there was any justification for a deferral of action by the 
International Criminal Court (ICC).  He noted that the EU had 
already issued two recent statements on Sudan -- one after 
the arrest warrant was issued and the other after the 
expulsion of the 13 international humanitarian organizations 
-- and was not expecting to issue another one at this point. 
 
MIDDLE EAST 
 
¶5. (C) Schieb said that the discussion of the Middle East 
would be led off by a briefing by High Rep Solana, the 
Commission and the Czech EU presidency on their latest 
contacts in the region.  He expected that foreign ministers 
would focus on Gaza and the political situation in Israel 
with the formation of a new government.  Schieb said Germany 
fully subscribed to the U.S. points on maintaining the 
Quartet as the preeminent mechanism for coordinating 
international diplomatic efforts. 
 
IRAN 
 
¶6. (C) According to Schieb, Iran is not on the GAERC agenda. 
We passed the U.S. points to the MFA Iran desk, who told us 
that they reinforced Treasury Acting A/S Glaser's March 3 
presentation on Iranian entities of concern in Brussels.  The 
desk officer noted that the EU-4 continues to lobby with 
 
BERLIN 00000303  002 OF 002 
 
 
dissenting countries unwilling to move the designation 
question forward, and encouraged the U.S. to do the same.  He 
added that once the U.S.'s policy review is complete, it is 
imperative that the U.S. send a clear message to the EU to 
help push the message forward.  (Additional details in Ref 
D.) 
 
TRANSNISTRIA 
 
¶7. (C) Schieb indicated that Transnistria is also not on the 
GAERC agenda, but the deputy head of the MFA division 
responsible for Moldova agreed that the 5 plus 2 format was 
the best for seeking a solution for the frozen conflict. 
However, he indicated that MFA saw "transparent 2 plus 1 
talks" as acceptable, especially if they assisted the 
resumption of 5 plus 2 talks.  German officials look forward 
to working more closely on this issue with the new 
Administration. 
Koenig