P 121055Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2191

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000167 
 
 
DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AND INR 
DEPT FOR DS/AF/IP 
DEPT FOR DS/ITA/AF 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2024 
TAGS: ASEC CASC MP PGOV PREL PTER MA
SUBJECT: EAC CONVENED MARCH 9 TO DISCUSS TRIPWIRES, 
AUTHORIZED DEPARTURE AND SECURITY FORCES ABILITY TO 
MAINTAIN ORDER 
 
¶1. (SBU) This information has previously been reported 
through alternate channels. An Emergency Action Committee 
(EAC), chaired by DCM Stromayer, was convened on March 9, 
2009 at the DCR to review the trip wires in light of the 
recent events and discuss the possibility of authorized 
departure (AD). The ability of the local security forces to 
maintain order is questionable, at best, given the mutiny of 
a faction of the military and the disintegration of the EMMO 
combined response team.  EAC voted and strongly favored 
recommending to the Ambassador that he should request 
authorized departure status for the Mission. 
 
¶2. (C) The DCM reported that there had clearly been a mutiny 
among the military forces with those dissatisfied barricaded 
in the Camp Capsat, the location of the majority of the 
military's arsenal.  During the day there had been a peaceful 
rally at 13 Mai and looting at various stores outside of 
town, including a major ex-pat grocery store and Indian owned 
shops. Also of concern was the reference from the rally to a 
three day countdown leading to some type of action on 
Wednesday.  A review of the Embassy tripwires shows that we 
have now passed five (5) of those leading to AD with debate 
about three (3) others.  In addition, Post crossed three (3) 
tripwires that would lead to ordered departure.  The 
electronic survey conducted by the DCM among the American 
Mission revealed that, at this time, at least 20 people are 
interested in AD. This is close to triple the amount who were 
interested in the AD option a few weeks ago when a similar 
survey was taken. 
 
¶3. (C) DAO reported that EMMO forces had broken down into 
three individual forces and were no longer working in a 
coordinated fashion.  Both the Ministry of Defense and the 
Secretary General of the Ministerial Council would not speak 
to DAO directly, but the conversation indicated that they 
have no plans in place concerning the security of foreigners. 
 At present, the military is divided and has no effective 
leadership.  The president no longer trusts his military and 
tried to send his presidential guard to obtain additional 
weapons, but they were turned back at Camp Capsat. It was 
also noted that military personnel who followed the orders of 
the President to break up the rallies last week are being 
personally threatened by TGV's forces so much so that they 
were allowed to check out AK-47s and handguns to ensure the 
safety of their families. The situation is fluid and it is 
impossible to predict the status of the military and if they 
will be able to respond to maintain order and security. 
 
4.(C) RSO reported that it is not possible now to ensure 
adequate Government of Madagascar security for the Embassy 
community.  Roadblocks are being randomly placed by the 
opposition and are changed frequently, making routes for 
moving through the city unpredictable. Fewer flights are now 
scheduled to fly in and out of Antananarivo.  Many of the 
rallies take place within one mile of the Embassy. During the 
last week, EMMO forces used tear gas and warning shots to 
break up crowds for four consecutive days, with the crowds 
sometimes moving directly past the Embassy warehouse. 
Information provided by SD has been scaled back, somewhat, in 
an attempt to better protect the safety of the SD members 
after one member was arbitrarily arrested and subsequently a 
victim of police brutality.  There is a fragmentation of 
security forces, with debates in loyalties or disagreement 
about responsibilities.  The military can no longer provide 
any support.  RSO strongly recommended that the Embassy 
should move to authorized departure. 
 
5 (C) RAO reported that the TGV rally at 13 Mai was peaceful 
on Monday morning, with two or three thousand in attendance. 
The president's rally had about the same number meeting at 
the stadium and was also peaceful.  In the area of the 
looting, the area had many people, evidence of road blocks 
and burning tires.  However, security forces were present and 
reinforcements arrived in military vehicles.  The forces 
restored order to the area. 
 
6.(C)  The Ambassador did not attend this EAC meeting, as 
with short notice he went to the ceremony announcing the 
convening of the National Consultative Conference (NCC), a 
long awaited effort to end the crisis.  Both sides had agreed 
to this meeting. 
 
7.(C) The EAC determined by a majority vote (12 for, two 
against and one abstention) to recommend to the Ambassador 
that he request authorized departure.  The Embassy would be 
opened for business as usual on Tuesday.  Shuttles will run 
to the Embassy leaving early to avoid congestion and crowds 
in the downtown area.  A town meeting for American mission 
employees and family members will be held at the DCR on 
Tuesday at 1630.  A second meeting for the broader American 
community will be held at the DCR on Wednesday at 1700. 
 
 
MARQUARDT