VZCZCXRO3511
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHWD #0069/01 0571530
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261530Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0359
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 0029

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 WINDHOEK 000069 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR WA
 
SUBJECT: Namibian Agriculture: An Inefficient but Key Employer 
 
WINDHOEK 00000069  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU) Namibian agriculture employs - directly and indirectly -- 
approximately 70 percent of working Namibians.  However, it 
contributes to less than ten percent of gross domestic product. 
Despite so much human activity involved in farming, Namibia's desert 
climate makes it highly dependent on food imports. Commercial 
farming yields most revenues, while subsistence farming employs a 
majority of the population.  GRN initiatives to protect and promote 
Namibian farming are numerous.  The GRN subsidizes poor farmers and 
has implemented import substitution and crop control schemes 
(limiting the exports and imports of key crops).  It also imposes 
export quotas on some livestock to promote "value-added" meat 
exports.  These and other GRN agricultural programs are aimed at 
protecting farming jobs, boosting local food production, and 
ensuring Namibia's food security.  Namibia, though, can afford to 
import agricultural commodities and food products which, in many 
cases, may be cheaper given Namibia's arid conditions. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although well intended, the GRN's agricultural policies 
provide distorted incentives.  Subsidies and protected crops may 
persuade marginal farmers to continue cultivating grains, when 
market forces would have pushed them to find alternatives.  Quotas 
on livestock exports aimed at promoting value-added meat have pitted 
livestock farmers against slaughterhouse owners.  In addition, the 
GRN continues to struggle with its land reform program, an 
initiative intended to provide better opportunities and productive 
farmland to historically disadvantaged Namibians. With limited 
financial resources agricultural programs are costly to the GRN, but 
faced with a 37 percent unemployment rate and the ruling SWAPO 
party's rallying cry for land during the independence movement, 
cutting agricultural programs would be politically difficult. End 
Summary. 
 
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Commercial vs. Communal Agriculture 
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¶4. (SBU) Namibian agriculture comprises two groups that are largely 
a legacy of Namibia's colonial and apartheid past: commercial farm 
owners who are almost exclusively white and communal farmers who are 
predominately poor and black, but also include some colored (mixed 
race) Namibians. Commercial farmers own huge parcels of land, 
primarily located in the south and central parts of the country, and 
produce a surplus of food sold in domestic and foreign markets. 
Black commercial farmers, most established since independence in 
1990 with the help of the GRN's affirmative action scheme, are 
sometimes called "emerging farmers."  Commercial farmers are 
represented by the Namibia Agricultural Union (NAU).  The NAU has 
tried to court black commercial farmers, but some emerging farmers 
have preferred to stay out of the NAU. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Communal farms are located throughout Namibia, but are 
found in larger concentrations in the northern regions, where more 
than 50 percent of Namibians live. No individual owns a communal 
farm, but traditional authorities (chiefs) generally act as the 
administrators of communal farm land with some central government 
oversight.  Communal farmers are generally subsistence farmers, 
producing little excess food. Any surplus from communal farms is 
generally sold in local markets, thus communal farmers do not profit 
from the higher prices export markets offer.  The Namibia National 
Farmers Union (NNFU) represents communal farmers.  The NAU and NNFU 
collaborate at times via a consultative body called the Joint 
Presidency Committee (JPC). 
 
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Livestock Drives Namibia's Agricultural Economy 
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¶6. (SBU) Livestock farming (cattle, goat and sheep) is the most 
common form of agriculture in Namibia.  A veterinary cordon fence 
divides Namibia. The majority of commercial farms are situated below 
(south of) the fence, a zone that has been internationally 
recognized as free of common livestock diseases such as foot and 
mouth (FMD).  This permits commercial farmers to more easily export 
their livestock, or to sell their animals to local abattoirs to have 
them slaughtered and butchered for export. Most exported live 
animals are sent to South Africa, while meat is often shipped to 
European markets, where it can fetch a higher price.  Most communal 
farms are located above the veterinary cordon fence, from where 
excess cattle is not easily exportable, unless the animal spends 
three weeks in a quarantine lot and then three additional weeks in a 
refrigeration facility after slaughter to ensure it is 
disease-free. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Foreign markets (mostly Europe and South Africa) pay more 
for Namibian meat than the domestic market. A South African 
 
WINDHOEK 00000069  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
slaughter house pays 3-7 more Namibian dollars (30-70 U.S. cents) 
per kilo for a live goat or sheep than its Namibian counterpart, 
after accounting for transportation costs. The GRN, in an effort to 
create jobs locally and to help reap more benefits from the value 
chain, instituted a quota in 2005 requiring small livestock farmers 
to sell a certain number of sheep (now six) to a Namibian abattoir 
for every live sheep or goat sold in South Africa.  Small livestock 
farmers complain that this requirement favors local abattoirs over 
producers, as Namibian abattoirs in effect buy a live animal at 
below market prices and then sell the cut meat to South African 
companies at the higher South African price. 
 
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Plants . . . Not Just Livestock 
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¶8. (SBU) Namibia has a small but growing agronomic (grain and 
horticulture) sector. Considered the driest country in Sub-Saharan 
Africa, only 50 percent of commercial agricultural land is 
irrigated.  The other half survives solely on seasonal rainfall. 
Communal farms enjoy very limited irrigation.  Some high-value 
horticultural products like melons and grapes are grown primarily 
for export. South Africa is the primary importer of Namibian melons, 
while Europe is the primary market for Namibia's table grape 
growers.  Few communal farmers are able to take advantage of the 
revenues that field crops can generate.  However, the GRN provides 
them seed, fertilizer and plowing subsidies to encourage more 
productive communal farming. The Namibian Economic Policy Research 
Unit (NEPRU), a local economic think tank, argues that the subsidies 
have not achieved their desired aims.  According to NEPRU, most 
communal farmers avoid fertilizers out of fear they will increase 
soil toxicity, while the plowing subsidy has largely benefited 
tractor owners who have simply raised their prices the same amount 
as the subsidy. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Two isolated outbreaks (one near the Angolan border, the 
other near the town of Tsumeb) of "Bactrocera invadens" fruit fly 
have recently threatened Namibia's horticultural sector. The fly was 
first detected in May 2008, although it was not confirmed as 
Bactrocera invadens until August. In October 2008, South Africa 
closed its border to Namibian fruit.  South African authorities 
eventually authorized the resumption of imports after the GRN was 
able to demonstrate that the fly had not migrated to the southern 
parts of Namibia.  Nevertheless, the damage had been done for many 
fruit growers.  The oversupply of fruit on the Namibian market 
forced growers to sell much of their produce domestically, at less 
than half of what they could have earned in South Africa.  Shortly 
after detecting the fruit fly last year, the Namibian Ministry of 
Agriculture expanded its detection program for plant pests. 
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Namibia and Food Security 
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¶10. (SBU) Namibia is dependent on food imports because it has little 
arable land (annual rainfall is extremely low), and due to droughts 
which occur every two to three years, as well as occasional 
flooding.  Nevertheless, as a low-middle income country, the GRN and 
the private sector can afford to import what the country does not 
produce. However, Namibia's extreme income disparity means that the 
rural poor often do not have access to sufficient food; some 25 
percent of Namibians applied for food assistance in 2008. Following 
floods in the north in 2008, the GRN released over USD 30 million in 
emergency food aid to help communities until the 2009 harvest. In 
January 2009, the press reported that many northern rural 
communities were not receiving emergency food rations, and the Prime 
Minister and other officials acknowledged problems with the 
emergency food distribution system.  The local World Food Program 
(WFP) representative on January 20 told emboff that his agency has 
had little insight into how the assistance has been distributed, as 
the GRN had decided to "go it alone," saying it no longer required 
WFP's assistance.  (Note: WFP is still active in Namibia -- mainly 
projects targeting orphans and vulnerable children - but, its main 
emergency food delivery program has been shut down.  End Note). 
 
¶11. (SBU) The steep increase in global food prices in 2008 only 
cemented the GRN's desire to decrease its dependence on imported 
foods. The GRN employs a number of policy tools - including an 
import substitution program, a program to increase horticultural 
production (known as the Green Scheme), and the development of a 
strategic grain reserve - to boost agricultural production, generate 
jobs, and increase food self-sufficiency. 
 
¶12. (SBU)  The Green Scheme program has to date produced few 
tangible benefits. Begun in 2003, Green Scheme is meant to develop 
27,000 hectares of irrigated land over 15 years along Namibia's few 
perennial rivers. The plan aims to boost not only food production 
for internal consumption, but also to increase agriculture's 
contribution to GDP. Eugene Kanguatjivi of the Ministry of 
Agriculture's newly formed international cooperation division told 
 
WINDHOEK 00000069  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
econoff that the Green Scheme is the "GRN's long term solution to 
food security." One objective of the Green Scheme is to match 
small-scale subsistence farmers with commercial farmers to teach 
them about commercial horticulture and crop farming. While some 
Green Scheme projects have managed to produce crops for sale, there 
is little evidence that subsistence farmers are benefiting. 
Kanguatjivi admitted that the Green Scheme had lost the GRN's 
attention until the 2008 food crisis. He noted that the GRN is now 
looking for outside investors to assist with the project. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The National Horticulture Development Initiative (NHDI), 
the GRN's import substitution program, has enjoyed more success than 
the Green Scheme. The Namibian Agronomic Board (NAB), which oversees 
the program, sets the local production targets on a quarterly basis. 
Horticulture importers must report to the NAB on a monthly basis 
where they have sourced their produce. Importers who meet the NAB's 
local produce sourcing targets qualify to receive an import permit. 
Local horticultural product sales - mostly derived from commercial 
farms - have increased from about 7 percent to 27 percent of the 
total produce sold in country since the program began in 2002. Each 
year the NAB tries to increase the local content based on the data 
it receives from local producers and other sources. The NAB 
commissioned PriceWaterhouseCooper to study the NHDI's expansion 
potential. According to the study, Namibian suppliers could provide 
up to 60 percent of domestic demand in the future. According to the 
NAB, most grocery store chains in Namibia previously sourced their 
produce from South Africa because it was more convenient and not 
necessarily because of cost savings. (Note: Most large supermarket 
chains in Namibia are South African, and carry South African 
products. End Note). GRN officials argue that local produce is 
generally more affordable than South African produce and that 
grocery chains (importers) now do not balk at NHDI requirements. 
 
¶14. (SBU) The Agronomic Board is also responsible for managing the 
controlled grain crop program. The Board protects producers of 
controlled crops (white maize, wheat and millet) from foreign 
imports during the annual grain marketing season which usually runs 
from May 1 to August 31, after which the Board allows the import of 
the controlled crops into Namibia. Controlled crops also enjoy a 
price floor to ensure that farmers know the minimum price their 
grains will fetch. The GRN's "strategic reserve" of cereal grains 
project, begun in 2008, is a further attempt to reduce Namibia's 
dependence on foreign grains. The GRN hopes that seven newly 
constructed strategic reserve grain silos will encourage domestic 
farmers to produce even larger amounts of grain (especially in years 
with good rainfalls). Kanguatjivi from the Ministry of Agriculture 
told emboffs that the project faces a number of challenges, 
including a lack of skilled technicians to operate the silos, 
although they have implemented a training program to develop silo 
operators. 
 
¶15.  The GRN's efforts to protect the local milling industry by 
prohibiting imports of maize meal and wheat flour have complicated 
achievement of food security in some regions.   For instance, 
Caprivi in the far northeastern corner of Namibia, has no 
significant maize production and must rely on maize meal shipments 
from  Windhoek instead of importing it from much closer points in 
neighboring Botswana or Zambia. 
 
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Land Reform Leads to Less Productive Land 
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¶16. (SBU)  The GRN's agricultural policies inevitably intersect with 
its land reform program. The government views agriculture and land 
redistribution as mechanisms to reduce the staggering rates of 
poverty and unemployment amongst historically disadvantaged 
Namibians, as well as a tool to correct  some of the inequities of 
the country's apartheid past. The GRN has, to date, employed both a 
"willing-buyer, willing-seller" policy and expropriation, paying 
fair market value for land.  The program has redistributed slightly 
over 200 previously white-owned farms, but most resettled farms have 
seen significant drops in productivity. 
 
¶17. (SBU)  Resettled farms are usually divided into smaller parcels 
to allow distribution to several families, but smaller parcels are 
generally less economically viable. Most resettled farmers lack the 
resources (capital, equipment and know-how) to operate a commercial 
farm for profit. Facing high maintenance costs, many resettled 
farmers have resorted to subsistence farming. Other resettled 
farmers, recognizing the challenges they face, have simply opted to 
sell off their livestock and lease their land to others, leaving the 
resettled farmers once again without any land to call their own. 
According to one slaughterhouse owner, resettled farmers who lack 
the resources to fund their operations, frequently sell their 
livestock before it reaches appropriate slaughtering size.  Smaller 
livestock fetch lower prices at slaughter, thus perpetuating the 
farmers' poverty.  Abattoirs that handle less livestock and smaller 
livestock are then underutilized and therefore less profitable. 
 
WINDHOEK 00000069  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
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Good Intentions, Unintended Consequences 
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¶18. (SBU) According to one well-respected Namibian economist, 
economics lecturer and former Fulbright scholar Sean Kalundu, many 
senior GRN policy makers rarely understand the negative economic 
implications of their decisions. The Green Scheme and the crop 
control program, for instance, are intended in part to address the 
37 percent unemployment rate, but they generally discourage more 
efficient agriculture and overlook the opportunity cost of using the 
GRN's funds for other initiatives. Controlling grain crops ensures 
that some farmers, who would normally exit the market and seek other 
jobs, remain in farming.  These food security and job creation 
programs, without substantial investments, will likely continue to 
fall short of lifting large percentages of historically 
disadvantaged Namibians out of poverty. Larger government 
investments in these programs, however, run the risk of creating 
even more distorted incentives. 
 
- - - - 
Comment 
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¶19.  Although some of the GRN's agricultural policies have led to 
reduced revenues and distorted economic consequences, land reform is 
a political imperative.  "Land" was at the heart of the independence 
struggle, i.e., returning land to its rightful owners and/or 
redistributing land to alleviate poverty.  While employing more 
efficient agricultural production seems logical, alternative job 
opportunities for subsistence farmers are virtually non-existent. 
Realizing the lack of success of its land reform program, the GRN 
has decided to provide greater assistance to resettled farmers and 
focus more attention on green schemes.  Allocating more resources to 
these programs will mean a reordering of national priorities, 
however, and this remains to be seen. End Comment. 
MATHIEU