VZCZCXRO3621
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHFL RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP
RUEHROV
DE RUEHSM #0073/01 0361024
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 051024Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4084
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0308

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019 
TAGS: PREL PINR MEPP IS IR IZ SW
SUBJECT: ISRAELI AND IRAQI AMBASSADORS TALK IRAN AND 
PALESTINIANS OVER DINNER 
 
REF: STOCKHOLM 23 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert J. Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (S) Summary: On February 2, at a dinner hosted by the CDA, 
Iraqi Ambassador Ahmad Bamarni and Israeli Ambassador Benny 
Dagan held a friendly and thought-provoking discussion on the 
Middle East.  UK Ambassador Andrew Mitchell, Swedish MFA 
Director General for the Middle East Robert Rydberg, and POL 
Counselor also attended.  Highlights of the discussion follow. 
 
The Two Democracies in the Middle East 
-------------------------------------- 
 
-- Israeli Amb. Dagan congratulated Iraqi Amb. Bamarni on the 
successful provincial elections in Iraq.  Bamarni spoke of 
the very low level of violence on election day, and commented 
proudly that "Israel and Iraq are the only two democratic 
countries" in the Middle East. 
 
Iran's Degree of Control Over Hamas 
----------------------------------- 
 
-- Iran appears to fully control Hamas, per Amb. Bamarni. 
Iran encouraged Hamas to provoke Israel last December, he 
alleged, during the period between the U.S. election day and 
the inauguration, to divert Israel and America.  Iran feared 
an attack on its nuclear installations in the waning days of 
the Bush Administration, he speculated. 
 
-- Amb. Dagan disagreed, arguing that the Hamas internal 
leadership is not cohesive and different factions often 
freelance, sometimes going beyond the wishes of Tehran and 
other Hamas factions.  Dagan sees evidence that neither Iran 
nor elements of the external Hamas leadership were happy with 
the timing of the rocket provocation of Israel.  Likewise, 
Iran thought Hizballah's 2006 provocation of Israel was 
premature. 
 
-- Hamas and Hizballah freelancing is what most concerns 
Israel, Dagan added.  If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, then 
the Israeli fear is that Hamas and Hizballah will be further 
emboldened, under the assumption that they are protected by 
Iran's nuclear umbrella. 
 
Iran's June 2009 elections 
-------------------------- 
 
-- Bamarni said Ayatollah Khameini supports President 
Ahmedinejad, who has remained a "loyal pasdaran."  Khameini's 
support, as it becomes more public, might well ensure 
Ahmedinejad's re-election in the June presidential elections, 
he said.  Bamarni said the likely outcome of Israel's 
upcoming election --  a Netanyahu government -- could help 
bring about the re-election of Ahmedinejad.  Having both men 
in power would be a cause of concern. 
 
Iran's Regional Ambitions 
------------------------- 
 
-- Iran's message to Europe and the U.S., per Bamarni, was 
that the road to solving regional problems runs through 
Tehran, not Ankara or Cairo or Riyadh (see reftel on similar 
comments by Iranian DFM Safari in Stockholm).  Iran has 
worked hard to marginalize Turkish ruling party AKP's 
influence over Hamas.  Thus, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal was 
visiting this week in Tehran, not Ankara. 
 
-- Bamarni said that during a visit to Baghdad last summer, 
an Iraqi friend invited him to lunch with an Iranian 
official.  When he asked what Iran wanted from America, the 
Iranian said "we just want what the Shah had," U.S. 
recognition of Iran as the regional power. 
 
How to Deter Non-state Actors 
----------------------------- 
 
-- Dagan commented on the discussion in Israel of how to 
deter non-state actors, saying "we know how to deter states 
like Syria, but we are trying to learn how to deter Hamas." 
The current strategy is to use disproportionate force to 
respond to attacks by Hizballah and Hamas, noting it may take 
repeated strikes in both cases.  As long as Israel is 
reacting to attacks inside the pre-1967 borders, such IDF 
strikes carry 90 percent Israeli popular support, he 
reported.  Israel lacks a political strategy to accompany the 
deterrence, Dagan admitted. 
 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000073  002 OF 002 
 
 
-- Bamarni took a historic view, saying Israel faced military 
threats from Arab nationalism for its first 20 years, then 
between 1967-1989 faced Communist-backed terrorism from the 
PLO, PFLP and DFLP, and now is facing Islamist terrorism. 
Each of these waves eventually dissipated, he counseled, and 
the key is to maintain some positive links with the Arab 
populations to help shape what comes next. 
 
Arab-Israeli Peace Process 
-------------------------- 
 
-- Bamarni asked Dagan why Israel had not liked the Arab 
League peace plan proposed by the Saudis.  Dagan replied that 
the timing of the proposal, coming in 2002 in the middle of 
the second intifadah, made it impossible to deliberate.  But 
the repackaged proposal of 2007 had received support from the 
full range of Israeli government offices and significant 
attention in leadership circles.  One problem from the 
Israeli point of view, he stated, was that normalization only 
comes at the end of a series of moves by Israel, including 
its withdrawal to pre-1967 borders.  There needs to be more 
"give and take as we go along," he said. 
 
-- Egypt stopped aggressively policing the Gaza border after 
Israel shut the Rafah crossing point, because it felt that 
Israel was trying to "push the Gaza problem down the Egyptian 
throat," Dagan said. 
 
Swedish Views 
------------- 
 
-- Asked about Swedish positions on the Gaza crisis, 
Ambassador Rydberg noted that the four-party governing 
alliance was in discord on this issue, with the Christian 
Democrats and Liberals calling for a tougher approach on 
Hamas while the Moderates led by FM Carl Bildt were 
forthright in condemning Israel. 
 
¶2. (S) Comment: The Iraqi and Israeli ambassadors had a lot 
to tell each other, and they spoke long into the night, 
openly and frankly.  Both said they wanted to meet again. 
 
¶3. (C) Bio Notes: 
 
-- Ahmad Bamarni is an ethnic Kurd from a prominent 
Suleimaniyah clan, a Sorbonne graduate, a member of the PUK 
Politburo, and a close confidante of President Talabani.  For 
him, the posting in Stockholm was important because Sweden 
hosts the largest Iraqi expatriate community in Europe. 
 
-- Benny Dagan's mother's family comes from Baghdad, though 
he was born in Israel.  He speaks the Iraqi Jewish dialect of 
Arabic.  After a tour as deputy political counselor in 
Washington 1998-2003, Dagan headed the Middle Eastern 
Division of the MFA's Center for Diplomatic Research (roughly 
INR equivalent). 
SILVERMAN