VZCZCXRO5707
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0112/01 0491540
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181540Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4138
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000112 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2019 
TAGS: PREL ENVT EU BO TU SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN'S EU CORRESPONDENTS ON IRAN SANCTIONS, 
BELARUS, TURKEY AND MORE 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary and Action Request: In several meetings this 
month, the MFA EU Correspondent's Office has offered us their 
views on Iran sanctions, Belarus, Turkey's EU accession, and 
the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference.  On Iran, Sweden 
continues to raise concerns that "blanket" trade sanctions 
will not work, that new sanctions now will only increase the 
chance of Ahmedinijad's re-election, and that Sweden needs to 
understand the evidence behind U.S. designations of Iranian 
entities.  Action Request: Given Sweden's upcoming EU 
Presidency in the second half of the year, we urge that U.S. 
experts visit Stockholm to engage the Swedes in dialogue on 
Iran sanctions.  End Summary and Action Request. 
 
¶2. (C) Swedish MFA EU Correspondent Magnus Scholdtz, and 
Deputy Correspondents Christine Bengtsson and Jonas Wendel, 
recently told us that Sweden wants to engage in a closer 
dialogue with the Embassy and the USG to better understand 
the Obama Administration's policy goals and strategies. 
Scholdtz said we should take advantage of the pro-American 
atmosphere in Sweden to deepen coordination on issues of 
mutual concern. 
 
Iran Sanctions 
-------------- 
 
-- Scholdtz reported that Swedish FM Bildt remains skeptical 
about using trade restrictions as sanctions.  Wendel added 
that Bildt believes imposing "blanket" economic sanctions on 
Iran will not give either Sweden or the EU any leverage but 
instead send Iran to other suppliers, such as China.  In 
addition, the imposition of new sanctions now would only 
increase the chance that Iranian hard-liners will rally 
around President Ahmedinijad, increasing the likelihood of 
his re-election this June.  Poloff responded that "blanket" 
sanctions are not part of the discussion, that proposed 
sanctions target entities suspected of facilitating Iran's 
acquisition of WMD and missile technology, and that it would 
be important to support EU3 efforts to develop an enhanced 
set of both sticks and carrots.  Wendel responded that Sweden 
is not convinced that entities designated under U.S. domestic 
legislation are really involved in "problematic transactions" 
and that it would be very useful to have expanded dialogue 
between U.S. and Swedish experts on this topic. 
 
EU Sanctions on Belarus 
----------------------- 
 
-- The EU will meet in March or April to review its sanctions 
policy on Belarus, according to Scholdtz.  The outcome of the 
review will determine if President Lukashenko will 
participate in the first EU Eastern Partnership Summit on May 
¶7.  Additionally, Scholdtz reported that in late January the 
EU Political Directors discussed the likelihood that Belarus' 
parliament will vote in the spring to recognize Abkhazia and 
South Ossetia, and the likelihood that President Lukashenko 
would feel compelled to give in to Russian pressure on the 
issue. 
 
Copenhagen Climate Change Conference 
------------------------------------ 
 
-- The U.S. and Sweden need to get on the same track on 
environmental policy sooner rather than later, Scholdtz 
urged.  As EU president, Sweden will lead numerous bilateral 
summits, including with China, India and Brazil.  Sweden will 
be in a unique opportunity to press these countries on 
environmental issues prior to the December Conference of the 
Parties (COP 15) meeting in Copenhagen.  If the EU and U.S. 
can agree quickly on a negotiating strategy, we will jointly 
be in a stronger position when approaching China, India and 
Brazil. 
 
Turkey 
------ 
 
-- Scholdtz asked for U.S. help in urging key EU states to 
support Turkey's EU accession.  He said the Ankara Protocol 
will be reviewed this year and Turkey's current lack of 
progress will harm its accession prospects.  Britain is 
tiring, while Germany, Holland and Belgium's support for 
Turkey has significantly waned, Scholdtz said.  In the wake 
of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis, Turkish officials are 
behaving more boldly on the assumption that Turkey's 
indispensable role as a transit country for Central Asian oil 
and gas will allow the same latitude in talks with the EU. 
Scholdtz said Turkish officials must realize that Europe's 
energy needs will not affect Turkey's accession criteria. 
 
Free Trade 
---------- 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000112  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
-- Scholdtz said Sweden is one of the strongest advocates of 
free trade in the EU and is concerned over isolationist 
signals from the U.S. and some EU member states during the 
ongoing financial crisis.  He stressed Sweden's commitment to 
stand firm against protectionist tendencies. 
 
Russia 
------ 
 
-- Wendel said the EU and U.S. need to agree upon a common 
approach towards Russian President Medvedev's European 
Security Treaty proposal.  He said Sweden assesses that 
Russia wants to use the proposal to divide the EU and U.S. 
 
¶3. (C) Comment and Action Request: Our open dialogue with the 
EU Corespondent's Office bodes well for Sweden's upcoming EU 
presidency.  We will continue to engage the Swedes on Iran, 
and to that end would welcome USG visitors here who could 
address Swedish concerns about the effectiveness of 
sanctions. 
SILVERMAN