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S E C R E T SAN SALVADOR 000143 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPLS ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: FEBRUARY 12 
 
REF: SAN SALVADOR 102 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: This is an update regarding the presidential 
elections scheduled for March 15.  This report covers the 
economic debate between economic advisors from the 
(left-wing) Farabundo Marti Front for the National Liberation 
Party (FMLN) and the (pro-U.S., center right) Nationalist 
Republican Alliance Party (ARENA); public opposition by the 
Ombudsman for Human Rights to the use of children in 
political campaigns; the ARENA and FMLN attempts to woo San 
Miguel Mayor Wil Salgado, a member of the (pro-U.S., center 
right) Christian Democratic Party (PDC); and the controversy 
surrounding the removal of (center-right) National 
Conciliation Party (PCN) presidential candidate Tomas Chevez 
from the ballot.  Overall, the race has tightened and is too 
close to call. 
 
---------------------------------- 
A PUBLIC DEBATE ON ECONOMIC ISSUES 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) With less than six weeks until the March 15 
presidential election, economic advisors from ARENA and the 
FMLN held a televised economic debate February 8.  The debate 
covered the parties, economic plans, the ongoing economic 
crisis, employment, and tax issues.  Gerson Martinez, the 
FMLN economic advisor and returning Legislative Assembly 
deputy, and Alexander Segovia, economic advisor to FMLN 
presidential candidate Mauricio Funes, stressed that the FMLN 
plan represented a conceptual change from the past, and 
reflected general ideas that would be fully developed once 
they are in government.  On the other hand, Ambassador Rene 
Leon, ARENA Platform Coordinator, and Rafael Lemus, the ARENA 
platform Coordinator for Economic Issues, focused on 
promoting specific proposals from the ARENA plan. 
 
¶3.  (U) Leon said that ARENA would promote employment in 
specific high-value sectors, including textiles, tourism, 
agriculture, call centers, housing, and logistics.  The FMLN 
plan would focus on small and medium enterprises, which 
Segovia said would generate the most employment.  Martinez 
also promoted the FMLN &my first job8 program, where the 
government would pay one month of the annual salary of an 
employee in his first job. 
 
¶4. (U) Both parties stated that they would not raise the 
Value-Added Tax and both are considering introducing a 
property tax.  The FMLN,s fiscal/tax policy would focus on 
reducing &elusion, evasion, and contraband,8 which Martinez 
estimated would free at least $300 million per year.  Lemus 
responded that studies show that even developed countries 
have a hard time reducing evasion below 25 percent, so the 
FMLN,s plan was not feasible.  Segovia also proposed a 
&fiscal pact,8 where the FMLN would consult all sectors of 
society about how to raise tax revenues, with a goal of 
increasing the tax burden to 16-17 percent of GDP.  Leon 
noted that the Guatemalans had been debating a fiscal pact 
(which Segovia helped develop) for nine years without 
agreement.  On the other hand, Leon said that ARENA,s fiscal 
policy would rely not just on increasing tax collection and 
improving expenditures, but also external financing, 
donations, and agreements between government and the private 
sector.  Segovia responded that ARENA,s fiscal proposals 
were too small and would not raise enough revenue to cover 
the expenses outlined in their plan. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
PDDH OPPOSES USE OF CHILDREN IN CAMPAIGN 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5.(U) ARENA Presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila visited 
Cinquera, Cabanas February 6, and, according to local media 
reports, was received by students chanting FMLN anthems and 
waving FMLN flags.  The media also reported that some FMLN 
sympathizers burned ARENA flags.  In response to the event, 
Ombudsman for Human Rights Oscar Luna publicly condemned the 
use of children in political campaigns and urged the FMLN and 
the Ministry of Education to take corrective measures.  The 
FMLN responded by saying the students merely reacted to 
provocation by ARENA. The Minister of Education announced 
February 9 that teachers involved in the incident will be 
suspended for 60 days without pay. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
WHO WILL THE MAYOR OF SAN MIGUEL ENDORSE? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6.(U) Since the PDC and PCN decided to withdraw their 
presidential candidates (see below), both ARENA and the FMLN 
ramped up efforts to secure the endorsements of influential 
officials, particularly the popular mayor of San Miguel, Wil 
Salgado.  San Miguel holds approximately 330,000 voters, 
enough to assure either party a solid victory.  The 
department of San Miguel traditionally favors the left, and 
the January 18 Legislative Assembly elections followed this 
trend.  However, the municipality of San Miguel is led by the 
popular PDC mayor, who is thought to have significant 
influence over voters. (Note: Salgado has consistently drawn 
votes as mayor, despite switching parties three times since 
2000.)  Salgado has yet to make an official endorsement, but 
has in the past said that ARENA's plan would better support 
the development of San Miguel. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
PCN EXPELS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FROM PARTY 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7.(C) In the wake of the February 2 withdrawal by PDC 
candidate Carlos Rivas Zamora from the presidential race 
(reftel), speculation spread through the media about the 
future of PCN candidate Tomas Chevez' bid.  Chevez was 
adamant about remaining in the race, but on February 4, 
following consultation with the TSE on mechanisms to end his 
candidacy without Chevez' consent, the PCN expelled him from 
the party, thereby terminating his campaign.  The PCN 
subsequently threw its support squarely behind Rodrigo Avila 
and the ARENA campaign.  The absence of smaller party 
candidates removes the possibility of a runoff in the 
presidential elections; the March 15 vote should be 
definitive. 
 
8.(U) Tomas Chevez, former PCN presidential candidate, 
appealed the party's decision to terminate his candidacy 
before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.  Chevez said the 
action was taken in violation of due process. He says the 
decision should have been made by the PCN General Assembly. 
Chevez claimed to have the support of 35 municipal directors, 
and said that PCN Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda should 
be removed from the party. 
 
9.(C) PCN Deputy Col. Jose Antonio Almendariz told PolCouns 
February 12 he was concerned that the manner in which PCN 
Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda had orchestrated the 
expulsion of former candidate Tomas Chevez would backfire. 
While the party leadership was beholden to Cruz Zepeda, party 
activists who had supported Chevez were furious and, despite 
assertions to the contrary, were not certain to support Avila 
in the March 15 vote.  Almendariz suggested the best thing 
Cruz Zepeda could do for Avila right now would be to throw 
publicly his support behind the FMLN,s Mauricio Funes. 
Almendariz, who had refused to sign the order expelling 
Chevez from the PCN, said he and others were now working the 
evangelical church circuit to explain why PCN voters should 
support ARENA and to try and ensure those voters would not 
support Funes. Almendariz said he feared Funes was likely to 
win the March 15 election. 
 
------------------EQk{q9QKQE_VAS ZAMORA ON DISAPPEARING CANDIDATES 
--------------------------------------- 
 
10.(S/NF) Former PDC candidate Carlos Rivas Zamora told 
Polcouns February 11 he had been approached by someone he 
believed to be a representative of the FMLN and offered one 
million USD not to be used for his campaign, but for him in 
exchange for agreeing to pull out of the race when 
instructed.  Rivas Zamora said he refused, but he believed 
former PCN candidate Chevez had accepted USD 500,000 and was 
now hoping for &forgiveness8 from the donors as he had been 
expelled from the PCN and thus removed from the March 15 
ballot earlier than the donors had desired.  Rivas Zamora 
said he hoped for Chevez, sake the donors were 
understanding, as they struck him as mafia-esque.  Rivas 
Zamora was personally disappointed that his campaign had 
ended when it did, but believed it was best for El Salvador 
in order to prevent a Funes victory.  He said he has been 
informally offered ) though not as a quid pro quo -- several 
positions in an Avila government: Consumer Advocate (Defensor 
del Consumidor), Ambassador to Ecuador, and Solicitor General. 
 
¶11. (C) Comment: Power struggles notwithstanding, the PDC and 
PCN do not want to see an FMLN president, and their recent 
maneuvers demonstrate that they will do whatever they deem 
necessary to reach that end.  Along with ARENA, the parties 
have decided that the March 15 election is Rodrigo Avila's 
best chance at winning, and all have now made a decisive 
commitment to realizing that goal.  ARENA has gained momentum 
from its victory in the San Salvador mayor's race, which (1) 
burst the FMLN's aura of invincibility and (2) awoke the 
ARENA sleeping giant.  The race for president is now in a 
fierce and tightly-contested phase. 
 
BLAU