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O 020849Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8606
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1758
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 5232
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8832
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 6404
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 2027
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4239
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2226
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RANGOON 000059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINR BM
SUBJECT: GAMBARI MEETS WITH GOB REPS AND AUNG SAN SUU KYI; 
BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS 
 
REF: 2008 RANGOON 679 
 
RANGOON 00000059  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  UN Special Representative Ibrahim Gambari arrived 
in Rangoon Saturday, January 31 for his seventh visit to 
Burma.  He met with GOB officials including Foreign Minister 
Nyan Win and outlined his priorities -- achieving progress on 
his "five-point agenda," political facilitation between the 
regime and the opposition, and preparing for a possible visit 
to Burma by UNSYG Ban -- to UN country team members January 
31 and to chiefs of mission February 1.  He told the COMs one 
of his arguments with Burma authorities is that they ought to 
signal flexibility to ASEAN, the new U.S. Administration, and 
the SYG.   Gambari met with Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) and five 
members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) Central 
Executive Committee (CEC) for nearly 90 minutes February 2. 
Gambari will reportedly travel to Nay Pyi Taw February 3 for 
meetings with senior GOB officials; it is unclear if he will 
meet again with ASSK or diplomats prior to his departure from 
Burma, currently scheduled for late February 3.  End Summary. 
 
Meeting with NLD, Aung San Suu Kyi 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The highlight of Gambari's visit thus far was his 
meeting February 2 with ASSK and five members of the NLD CEC, 
aka the Uncles, from approximately 10 a.m. until 11:20 a.m. 
at a government guest house.  According to NLD Spokesman Nyan 
Win, ASSK initially met for 15 minutes beforehand with the 
Uncles and then spent over an hour with Gambari and the five 
Uncles, who apparently had been selected for the meeting by 
the GOB.  Nyan Win said CEC member U Lwin did not attend 
because of poor health and Win Tin and Khin Maung Shwe were 
not invited. 
 
¶3.  (C)  According to Nyan Win -- who was not present -- the 
NLD reiterated its four key objectives: release of all 
political prisoners, convening of the 1990 parliament, an 
inclusive dialogue, and a review of the regime,s proposed 
constitution.  The NLD said it does not think UNSYG Ban 
should visit Burma unless he could achieve at least the 
release of all political prisoners.  Nyan Win said Gambari 
raised his proposal for an economic forum, but the NLD 
declined to discuss it.  ASSK pointed out that there is no 
rule of law in Burma under which to undertake such a project. 
 She noted that Win Tin and Khin Maung Shwe (both long-term 
political prisoners released last September) are members of 
the CEC, and she expressed regret that the two were not 
invited.  (Note: During the diplomatic briefing February 1 
(see below), Gambari remarked that he needed an opportunity 
to meet ASSK during this visit because "it is critical to 
know what she thinks on everything."  He said the Burma 
authorities have always facilitated meetings for him with 
ASSK, and her refusal to meet with him last August was 
"unfortunate."  End note.) 
 
Meetings with UN, TCG, "Spokes-Authoritative Team" 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4.  (U)  Upon arriving in Rangoon Saturday, January 31, 
Gambari had an initial session with FM Nyan Win before 
meeting with the UN Country Team and with Tripartite Core 
Group (TCG) Chair U Kyaw Thu and Thai Ambassador Bansarn 
Bunnag in his capacity as ASEAN representative to the TCG. 
Thereafter, Gambari met with the "SPDC Spokes-Authoritative 
Team:" Minister of Information Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan, 
Foreign Minister Nyan Win, and Minister of Culture Major 
General Khin Aung Myint.  He met separately with Minister of 
Labor and Minister of Relations (GOB-appointed liaison to 
 
RANGOON 00000059  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
ASSK) Aung Kyi, with Minister of Health Dr. Kyaw Myint, and 
with Referendum Commission officials and senior members of 
the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), 
before attending a dinner hosted by Minister Kyaw Hsan.  We 
have no readouts yet on those meetings. 
 
Gambari Discusses Priorities with Diplomats 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  During an hour-long session with chiefs of mission 
in the late afternoon of February 1, Gambari began by noting 
this is his seventh visit to Burma and seven is a lucky 
number in his native Nigeria.  He expressed hope for very 
tangible results, while noting his good offices mission is a 
process not an event; it is a means to an end.  He praised 
collaboration between the GOB and the international community 
on the Cyclone Nargis response, noting that the TCG and the 
coming launch of the Post-Nargis Relief and Recovery Plan 
(PONREPP) lay out a framework for future effort, including in 
"other areas." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Gambari observed that the SYG's "good offices" 
mandate had been reaffirmed in December.  He outlined three 
focuses for his visit: 
 
--First, the Secretary General expects more progress on the 
"five-point agenda."  (Note: that includes: release of 
political prisoners, including ASSK; resumption of an 
enhanced political dialogue between the GOB and ASSK; a 
proposal to establish a broad-based national mechanism to 
address socio-economic concerns; ways to enhance the 
credibility of the process leading to elections by 2010; and 
regularization of the UN good offices mission.  End note.) 
 
--Second, is political facilitation -- bridging the gap 
between the government and the opposition.  Gambari said last 
time the Foreign Minister asked him to talk with the 
opposition to find areas of agreement, disagreement, and 
possible convergence.  Gambari has asked the GOB for time and 
opportunity, a balanced schedule that could lead to a 
fruitful outcome. 
 
--Third, is to prepare for UNSYG Ban's possible return to 
Burma. The SYG is ready to return but wants to focus on 
issues other than Nargis.  He would want "very meaningful 
outcomes" in a "conducive atmosphere." 
 
...And Potential "Avenues" for GOB to Explore 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  In soliciting the views and advice of the 
diplomatic community, Gambari said the UN is looking at ways 
to "elevate other pillars of engagement with Burma, not in a 
way that would downgrade the political pillar but in a way 
that would raise the remaining two -- humanitarian and 
developmental."  He told diplomats that the SYG had 
challenged the Group of Friends in December to come up with 
suggestions for a "tool box" to engage with the Burmese 
authorities.  He will press for progress on political and 
human rights issues, but he also needs "tools of interest to 
Myanmar."  Gambari said he is emphasizing four "avenues, 
opportunities" for sending the right signals to the 
international community in talks with GOB officials:  his own 
visit; upcoming ASEAN meetings (including the ASEAN 
sessions) in Thailand; possible policy shifts in the new U.S. 
administration if Burma sends the right signals; and the 
possibility of a SYG visit. 
 
UK and U.S. to Gambari:  Situation Worsening; GOB Must 
Unclench Fist 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The UK Ambassador told Gambari it has been a bad 
 
RANGOON 00000059  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
12 months, as evidenced by 2200 political prisoners, 
convictions with lengthy sentences, no progress on political 
dialogue, economic mismanagement and recently Rohingyas 
risking their lives to flee the country.  The work in the 
Delta is something to be proud of and the large sums 
contributed by the UK, US, EU and Australia demonstrate that 
"non-traditional donors" will make tangible commitments to a 
better Burma if there is political change.  That is a "huge 
addition" to the SYG's tool box.  The UK Ambassador later 
added that the international community should perhaps focus 
on non-financial incentives, such as status in the 
international community, guarantees of territorial integrity, 
etc.  It should be made clear that the world is not seeking 
regime change in Burma, merely improved government behavior. 
The UK Ambassador noted that the election process could be 
healing or divisive; thus far it has been divisive. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Gambari and the assembled diplomats agreed that 
the next 12 months will be pivotal for Burma's future.  In 
response to the UK, Gambari noted that elections can promote 
unity or disunity; he wants to encourage ways to promote 
unity.  He agreed with the idea of including "status" issues 
in the toolbox, saying he would like to see Burma as a 
respected and responsible member of the international 
community rather than as the subject of UNGA resolutions. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The CDA agreed with the UK view that the internal 
political situation has worsened.  He urged Gambari to focus 
on the need to release political prisoners, including but not 
limited to Aung San Suu Kyi, and on the need for truly 
meaningful dialogue.  Regarding Gambari's mention of a 
possible opportunity for engagement with the new U.S. 
administration, the CDA, noting that he has not yet received 
instructions from Washington, said he expects a review of 
U.S. policies is occurring across the board, including about 
Burma.  He referred to a portion of President Obama's 
Inaugural Address ("we will extend our hand if you will 
unclench your fist") and said now would be an opportune time 
for the Burmese regime to unclench its fists. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Gambari pledged to continue to press for the 
release of political prisoners as part of his five-point 
agenda.  He added that he has known new U.S. Ambassador to 
the UN Susan Rice since the 1990s when she was A/S for 
African Affairs.  Gambari said Ambassador Rice told him she 
is anxious to see the results of Gambari's mission which can 
help the new U.S. Administration formulates its Burma policy. 
 (Note:  During his round of greetings, Gambari asked CDA, 
"When is the U.S. going to return its representation in Burma 
to "ambassador?"  The CDA replied, "That is really up to the 
Burmese," prompting Gambari to chuckle and say "that sounds 
like the right response."  End note.) 
 
Russians Push for a "Friendly Dialogue" 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  The French and Italian Ambassadors commented on 
the need for free and fair elections and the French expressed 
hope Gambari would meet with ASSK.  The Russian Ambassador 
objected to the somber assessments by the U.S. and the UK, 
saying the situation has not worsened in the last 12 months; 
Burma is not a threat to regional peace and security; no 
extraordinary measures are needed; and, while the Gambari 
mission is important, it should just be a "friendly dialogue." 
 
Possible Visit to Nay Pyi Taw 
----------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C)  Chris Kaye, Country Director for the UN's World 
Food Programme, confirmed that Gambari traveled to the Delta 
the afternoon of Feb. 2 and was scheduled to return in the 
evening.  We are told Gambari resisted that schedule item, 
presumably thinking he should be focusing on his core agenda, 
 
RANGOON 00000059  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
but apparently he wasn't successful.  Although at Sunday's 
briefing neither Gambari's personal assistant nor MFA 
protocol officials expected he would travel to Nay Pyi Taw, 
Gambari reportedly told the NLD CEC he would travel there on 
February 3 to meet with GOB officials.  Yin Yin Oo, the MFA 
Americas Division Director, told us she had no specific 
information on Gambari's program in Nay Pyi Taw because it 
would be handled by the International Organizations 
Department.  Nonetheless, she speculated that if he is 
traveling there, it is to see Senior General Than Shwe, 
unless "the senior general is not feeling well, in which case 
he would see Number 2" (referring to Vice-Senior General 
Maung Aye).  (Note: Rumors of a serious Than Shwe illness 
continue.  He did not host the Thai military commander who 
visited last week.  He did not accept credentials of the new 
Chinese ambassador this week, though the Chinese embassy here 
reportedly assumed that would happen.  End note.) 
 
Comment:  Perhaps a Twitch of the Fist? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (C)  As usual, the GOB is strictly controlling Gambari's 
schedule.  Gambari's Special Assistant Erwan Pouchous, when 
approached, told us that Gambari had not received word of our 
request for a meeting between him and the CDA (sent via dip 
note to MFA).  Pouchous noted that Gambari's schedule was 
under "tight control" and only known "day-by-day." 
 
¶15.  (C)  A predictable session yesterday with diplomats, 
stock GOB meetings, and evidence the regime is strictly 
controlling the program were worrisome signs; but the meeting 
today with Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD CEC members was somewhat 
encouraging.  That joint meeting among ASSK, the Uncles, and 
Gambari may have been a first. Furthermore, if the report 
that ASSK was allowed to meet the Uncles privately before 
seeing Gambari is true, it would be a sign the regime is 
willing to give a little.  The last time she was allowed to 
meet with CEC members was January 2008. 
 
¶16.  (C)  Gambari said he presumed he would have an 
opportunity to brief the dip corps again before departure. 
As of COB February 2, we have received no confirmation.  He 
said that, after departing Burma, he will brief the SYG in 
New Delhi and continue on to China, Japan, and Brussels (EU) 
before returning to New York. 
DINGER