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C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000033 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  2/21/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS EAID PK
SUBJECT: NWFP: LOCAL PERCEPTIONS OF THE SWAT DEAL 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate 
Peshawar, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) According to Swat-based contacts, the ceasefire and the 
agreement to implement Shari'a law are welcomed by most 
residents but not expected to last.  The army caused a great 
deal of damage, failed to take advantage of the intelligence 
provided by the local population who they did not trust and 
allowed the militants to go largely unpunished.  Police are 
needed to maintain law and order.  The militants are likely to 
use the ceasefire to rearm and regroup.  Even with the 
expectation of an eventual breakdown in the ceasefire, Swat's 
level of violence had reached such a degree that respite even at 
the price of a tacit admission of government weakness appears to 
have been acceptable to the local population.  End Summary. 
 
Local Views on the Swat Deal 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Post spoke individually to a range of primarily Swat 
citizen contacts on February 18 and 19 for their views on the 
Swat ceasefire and plan to implement Shari'a law.  The group 
included a doctor, a lawyer, several local NGO workers, a 
founder of a peace organization, two recently internally 
displaced persons (IDP), and an expatriate aid worker focused on 
Swat for the last 10 years. 
 
Peace and Quick Justice At Any Price? 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) All except one were happy that a ceasefire was in place. 
Several said that the fighting had been so destructive that 
peace regardless of the conditions under which it was agreed to, 
was preferable to the fighting.  Several stated that the opening 
of the markets was a welcomed event due to the hardships that 
many were facing.  All except one believed that Shari'a law 
would bring much needed quick justice although how that would 
occur was not generally known.  The lawyer maintained that 
Shari'a law was already being practiced through out Swat. 
 
What About The Army? 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) According to the majority of those interviewed, the army 
caused a great deal of damage, failed to take advantage of the 
intelligence provided by the local population, and allowed the 
militants to go largely unpunished.  Large numbers of police, 
who would know the local population, were needed if law and 
order were to be restored.  Two of those interviewed said prior 
to the latest fighting they had viewed government security check 
posts in full view of militant check posts operating 
simultaneously. 
 
Skeptical Of The Ceasefire 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Some said that a few of the militants who committed the 
most gruesome of murders were now being hailed as heroes and 
that contributed to their skepticism of the ceasefire.  Several 
contacts commented that since neither side was fully committed 
to a ceasefire and because the last agreement failed, the latest 
deal was not likely to last.  Most expected the militants to use 
the ceasefire period to rearm and regroup either to renew 
violence in Swat or move to another agency.  A number of those 
interviewed observed the public attitude was that the militants 
had won the day by forcing this agreement. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) The level of violence had reached such a degree in Swat 
that respite even at the price of a tacit admission of 
government weakness appears to have been acceptable to the local 
population.  There is widespread sentiment beyond our Swat 
contacts, reflected in some conversations with government 
officials as well as local press editorials that the ceasefire 
is unlikely to hold long. 
 
TRACY