VZCZCXRO1152
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #0091/01 0331918
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021918Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7259
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHMT/AMCONSUL MONTREAL 0610

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 000091 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX)(VDEPIRRO)(WSMITH) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/ESC/IFD/EPC (McMANUS) 
EEB/TRA/OTP (BJSILER) 
 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
MONTREAL FOR USICAO 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON TRYS ENRG EFIN EINV ETRD EAIR IADB IBRD IMF
ICAO, KCOR, KIPR, XL, JM 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: JANUARY ECONOMIC REVIEW - HARDSHIP CONTINUES 
 
REF: KINGSTON 27 (121853Z JAN 09) 
 
KINGSTON 00000091  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: 
 
-- Jamaica's loss making national airline will begin an aggressive 
restructuring exercise next month in preparation for divestment 
later this year. 
 
-- The Jamaican Parliament has approved a four percent increase in 
the national budget to USD 6 billion. 
 
-- Finance Minister Audley Shaw has continued to reap significant 
rewards from his early decision to reengage multilaterals. 
 
-- The Jamaican dollar has continued on its downward spiral, 
depreciating by a further 6 percent since the start of 2009. 
 
-- Remittances to Jamaica fell by double digits for the last two 
months of 2008, suggesting that the most resilient source of foreign 
exchange is being impacted by the global crisis. 
 
-- Jamaica's Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett has attributed 
Jamaica's relatively strong performance to the country's great 
service and brand recognition. 
 
-- The UK Privy Council has given National Commercial Bank the green 
light to close the accounts of the embattled alternative investment 
scheme Olint. 
End Summary. 
 
Aviation - Air Jamaica Restructures 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Jamaica's beleaguered national airline, Air Jamaica (AJ), 
has announced an ambitious restructuring exercise in an apparent 
move to prepare the airline for divestment later this year.  AJ, 
which lost USD 170 million last year, will drop loss making routes 
-- Miami, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Grand Cayman -- starting this 
month.  This will allow the airline to reduce its fleet of aircraft 
to nine from 15, but also could result in job cuts of up to 600 
workers across all departments.  President Bruce Nobles said the 
move was geared at eliminating cash losses by: (1) exiting loss 
making markets and bumping up capacity in others; (2) improving 
aircraft utilization by more than 25 percent; and, (3) executing 
efficiency and productivity plans, which should bring costs in line 
with international standards.  Only a week ago, Minister without 
Portfolio in the Ministry of Finance Don Wehby disclosed that the 
divestment team had met with the two bidders short listed by the 
team.  Webhy suggested that both bidders had interest in the airline 
business and are apparently U.S. based. 
 
Aviation: Montreal Convention Effected 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Following a Demarche to Ministry of Foreign Affairs and 
Foreign Trade at the beginning of January (reftel), the Jamaican 
Parliament has passed a bill giving effect to the Montreal 
Convention.  The bill, which received bi-partisan support, was 
piloted by Minister of Transport and Works, Mike Henry.  Henry 
explained that the Convention sought to modernize the documentation 
relating to the international carriage of persons, baggage and 
cargo.  The Opposition said the bill represented an advancement and 
modernization of international air transport arrangements and 
provided a very clear framework for development and growth of the 
sector. 
 
Finance - Budget Revision amidst Rising Deficit 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Jamaican Parliament has approved a four percent 
increase in central government's budget to USD 6 billion.  Most of 
the USD 220 million increase will go toward capital expenditure for 
road improvements.  A significant portion of the recurrent 
expenditure has been allocated to the Ministry of Education to 
settle a wage claim by teachers, who were able to negotiate the 40 
percent increase required to take them to within 80 percent of the 
private sector.  Finance Minister Audley Shaw conceded that the 
country will miss its 4.5 percent fiscal deficit.  However, he 
thinks this should not have an adverse effect on the country as the 
news already has been communicated to officials at the 
 
KINGSTON 00000091  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
multilaterals, who understood, given the tenuous economic climate. 
A senior technocrat at the Ministry of Finance, Courtney Williams, 
told emboffs that the deficit should come in at about 5.5 percent, 
which should not be surprising given the global environment.  He 
said the revenue side continues to be a real challenge given the 
slide in consumption and payroll taxes.  Williams opined that while 
things were tenuous, they were not falling apart. 
 
¶5. (SBU) But Williams' optimism could be overstated, given that the 
fiscal deficit for April to December, 2008 was USD 685 million -- 
well above the USD 565 million target.  This deviation was largely 
due to the 12 percent slump in revenue, as consumption and 
bauxite-related taxes continue to hemorrhage.  Consumption taxes 
were off USD 145 million, a direct result of the general economic 
downturn.  Earnings from the bauxite levy were down USD 40 million 
relative to target, due to a combination of depressed prices and 
declining output.  A USD 64 million deviation in wages and salaries 
was the major contributor to increased expenditure.  With revenues 
expected to remain on its downward trajectory, the GOJ will be 
forced to fill the financing gap with loans from the domestic 
market.  This is sure to keep interest rates high, stifling the very 
investment required to keep the economy afloat. 
 
Finance - Multilateral Funding Soars 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Finance Minister Audley Shaw's decision to reengage 
multilateral agencies continues to bear rich rewards, as the country 
has secured a further USD 429 million in funding.  This latest 
amount brings to almost USD 1 billion the amount Shaw has been able 
to secure since he took over the reigns of the Ministry just over a 
year ago.  Last week the GOJ received USD 100 million from the World 
Bank at a rate of about two percent per annum over 30 years.  This 
brings to USD 357 million the amount of debt outstanding to the 
World Bank and is expected to support Jamaica's efforts to reduce 
the country's high debt burden as well as improve fiscal 
sustainability.  But Shaw has been even more successful in his 
negotiation with the IDB, which loaned Jamaica a further USD 329 
million a week earlier.  The loans comprise a USD 300 million 
liquidity support program for commercial banks; a USD 14 million 
supplementary loan for primary education; and, USD 15 million for a 
social safety net program.  These funds are timely, as they should 
help the GOJ to pay the USD 250 million Eurobond due in February. 
The remaining funds, when they hit the market, should boost supply 
and by extension slow the slide in the local currency. 
 
Finance - Currency Continues to Slide 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Instability continues to beset Jamaica's foreign exchange 
market, with the local currency sliding by over six percent since 
the start of 2009.  The continued instability has occurred against 
the background of moral suasion and draconian monetary policies, 
including a hike in interest rates to 25 percent.  The central bank 
also has been supplying foreign exchange from its declining stock of 
net international reserves (NIR), which has now dipped below USD 1.8 
billion.  With the country depending on imports for almost 70 
percent of its goods, distributors already have started to pass on 
the exchange rate differential to consumers, nullifying the effects 
of falling commodities prices.  Therefore, while price increases are 
expected to moderate from the almost 17 percent registered in 2007 
and 2008, they could well remain above 10 percent in 2009. 
 
Economy: Remittances 
-------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Jamaica's most resilient source of foreign exchange, 
remittances, is beginning to suffer the effects of the global 
financial crisis.  While total remittances for 2008 grew by 3.5 
percent to USD 2 billion, there was a marked downturn during the 
last quarter of the year.  Remittances for October to December fell 
by 10.5 percent, with remittances falling for all three months. 
However, the most dramatic decline was observed in November, when 
the flow decreased by 17 percent.  Remittances for December fell by 
12.2 percent.  Head of International Marketing at Western Union 
(which controls almost 60 percent of market share), Noel Greenland, 
told emboffs that the steep drop was directly related to the 
worsening conditions in Jamaica's main source market, the U.S. (60 
percent of all remittances).  However, he thinks the impact is 
really on the discretionary portion of the flow, and this is 
 
KINGSTON 00000091  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
expected to continue until there is a return to at least stability 
in the U.S.  That said, Greenland remains worried about the likely 
impact of the downturn in the UK economy (second largest source 
market). 
 
Economy: Tourism Minister Upbeat Despite Downturn 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Jamaica's chief tourism salesman, Minister Edmund Bartlett, 
remains upbeat about the country's tourism prospects, despite 
worsening economic conditions.  And Bartlett's optimism appears to 
be bearing fruit, as the country has maintained its market share in 
the U.S., while increasing its share of the growing Canadian market. 
 In November 2008, arrivals from Canada jumped by 53 percent. 
Bartlett has attributed this development to strong marketing, with 
the country pumping an additional USD 3 million to USD 18 million 
into its marketing effort.  Bartlett, who has been on a number of 
road shows, said that Jamaica's success can be attributed to its 
strong product, led by its great service and brand recognition. 
 
 
Investment Schemes - Olint Suffers another Blow 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The embattled alternative investment scheme Olint 
Corporation has suffered another major blow in its bid to maintain 
legitimacy, as the UK-based Privy Council has given National 
Commercial Bank (NCB) the green light to close the scheme's accounts 
- Olint's lawyers did not appear at the hearing.  In this regard, 
the Privy Council has overturned the decision of the local courts, 
which had ruled that Olint's accounts at NCB must not be closed. 
NCB had taken the decision to close Olint's accounts on the grounds 
that Olint did not comply with certain requests such as the filing 
of audited financial statements.  The Privy Council said it was 
clearly of the view that the bank's reasons for wanting to close the 
accounts were valid and that it was entitled to close them.  This 
was the second major setback for Olint in 2008, as lawyers also were 
unable to get the courts in the Turks and Caicos to lift a freeze 
order on the scheme's assets. 
 
HEG