VZCZCXRO0614
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0126/01 0330942
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 020942Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2820
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2019 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN ENVOY PLANS GREATER ENGAGEMENT, PROPOSES 
DARFUR ROUNDTABLE IN MOSCOW 
 
Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: President Bashir promised that the GOS will 
carry on with "business as usual" and asserted there would be 
no government-orchestrated hostile response to the issuance 
of an ICC arrest warrant, Russian Special Envoy Mikhail 
Margelov told CDA Fernandez in a meeting on January 30. 
Margelov also explained to CDA his proposal to leverage 
Russia's goodwill in Sudan to play a greater role in the 
country's political affairs, beginning with plans to host a 
roundtable discussion on Darfur in Moscow in the coming 
months. President Bashir gave his blessing to the idea, which 
would bring together political and intellectual elites for a 
wide-ranging discussion on how to solve the crisis. The 
roundtable would be intended to complement, not supplant, 
other ongoing initiatives such as the Doha talks, he said. 
Margelov also recounted his trip to Juba for meetings with 
GOSS officials, questioned whether Southern independence was 
a fait accompli, and advocated remaking Sudan into a loose 
federation or confederation to avoid the creation of 
additional failed states. Margelov stated that he witnessed 
tremendous improvement in El Fasher town and the surrounding 
areas since his last visit in 2006, but had also asked 
President Bashir to take decisive action to solve the crisis. 
He also pledged continued Russian support for UNAMID and 
UNMIS. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On January 30, CDA met with Russian Special Envoy 
Mikhail Margelov in Khartoum. (Note: Margelov, who is also 
the Chairman of the Russian Parliament's Foreign Affairs 
Committee, was appointed to the position in December 2008 by 
Russian President Dimitry Medvedev. End Note.) It was the 
last day of Margelov's week-long trip to Sudan, during which 
time he visited Khartoum, El Fasher and Juba. 
 
BASHIR OFFERS ASSURANCES OF BUSINESS AS USUAL 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Margelov briefed CDA on his meeting with President 
Bashir, whom he characterized as extremely jovial and 
relaxed. He stated that with regard to the ICC, Bashir told 
him he has not given up hope for a delay in the issuance of 
an arrest warrant against him. But if and when a warrant is 
issued, Bashir said he hopes that the UN Security Council 
members won't rule out an Article 16 Deferral. When Margelov 
asked Bashir about the potential fallout from ICC, Bashir 
asserted that the GOS will carry on with business as usual. 
There would be no expulsion of foreign diplomats, incitement 
of violent demonstrations or any other such backlash, said 
Bashir, who joked that "I'm no Lukashenko" (referring to the 
autocratic Belorussian President). Margelov stated that he 
welcomed this news, and encouraged Bashir to take decisive 
action to solve the crisis in Darfur. "I told him, 'You have 
to be accountable and you have to deliver,'" he said. "You 
can't be just be defensive and react to what you hear from 
the international community." 
 
¶4. (C) Margelov also traveled to Juba, where he met with GOSS 
President Salva Kiir. "It's quite clear to us that it would 
be a big mistake to develop contacts only in Khartoum," 
explained Margelov. He stated that Kiir is particularly 
concerned with the fallout from the ICC and is afraid it will 
further aggravate tensions in Darfur and endanger the CPA. 
Margelov also observed that the South appears more cautious 
regarding independence than a year ago, and was curious as to 
whether the USG views Southern independence as a fait 
accompli. CDA stated that it was not, but the USG full 
supports the South's right to do so per the CPA and 
acknowledged the challenge of reversing the momentum of the 
drive toward independence. Margelov also noted that the SPLM 
is very eager to increase ties with Russia, and various 
officials in Juba asked him to facilitate contacts with their 
counterparts in Moscow. Many Southerners have a strong 
affinity for Russia from memories of time spent in the USSR 
and other former Communist countries, he said. The same could 
be said of the North as well, continued Margelov, noting that 
he was approached by numerous Russian-speaking Sudanese while 
shopping at the famous Omdurman souk. 
 
PLANS FOR A DARFUR ROUNDTABLE IN MOSCOW 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Given that Russia constitutes a "friendly atmosphere" 
for both Northerners and Southerners, Margelov told CDA he 
had proposed convening a gathering of Sudanese political 
leaders, current and retired diplomats, scientists and other 
 
KHARTOUM 00000126  002 OF 002 
 
 
intellectuals from all over Sudan to Moscow for a forum to 
discuss the conflict in Darfur in 2009. "The media reported 
that it would be a 'conference', but I envision it as more of 
a 'roundtable.'" he said. Margelov clarified that such an 
initiative was intended to build on Russian goodwill in Sudan 
to complement current efforts, not to be a substitute for 
them. "We're not trying to replace Qatar," he noted. 
President Bashir has pledged his support to the Russian 
initiative, he said. 
 
¶6. (C) Margelov stated that he has come to believe that a 
loose federation or confederation of autonomous states is the 
optimal outcome for the political future of Sudan. "Both 
South Sudan and Darfur will become failed states in the days 
of economic crises," he said. "And of course, the worst case 
scenario for a 2011 separation is a return to war." He also 
noted that there was no chance for "regime change from 
outside" - a change in leadership would have to come from 
within. CDA remarked that the federal system described by 
Margelov had in fact been rejected at negotiations in 
Naivasha, and many institutions built in the South (primarily 
the SPLA) would be difficult to integrate into a federal 
arrangement. Furthermore, no work has yet been done to lay 
the ground for such a vision, he said. 
 
¶7. (C) With regard to Darfur, Margelov also told CDA that on 
his visit to El Fasher, he observed "great improvement" in 
the town and surrounding areas since his last visit in 2006. 
He also noted that nearby IDP camps look more like ordinary 
Darfuri villages rather than camps. "As I see it, there is no 
big difference between these camps and the other settlements 
surrounding El Fasher," he said. CDA stated that while the 
living conditions in some camps may be improving, the camps' 
inhabitants are still deeply aggrieved and angry from being 
displaced from their original homes. "The problem is 
psychological and political, not just in the material 
well-being of the people." Margelov also reiterated Russia's 
desire to make use of its goodwill with Sudan in cooperation 
with other members of the UN Security Council, and pledged 
continued support for UNAMID and UNMIS in areas such as 
helicopters. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: After years of neglect, the sincerity of 
Russia's desire to playing an active role in Sudan remains to 
be seen. Though Margelov appears well-intentioned, his 
musings on a potential confederation appear not very well 
thought-out and are moot given the reality of the CPA. With 
regard to Darfur, it's difficult to see how the proposed 
roundtable would complement existing initiatives, or how it 
would differ from the Sudan People's Initiative, the latter 
of which has yielded zero concrete results (though it did 
advance the national discussion of what a "solution" for 
Darfur might look like). Nonetheless, Russia's willingness to 
engage on Sudan ought not to be ignored, as the goodwill it 
enjoys with both the GNU and the GOSS can be leveraged in 
conjunction with other UNSC permanent members, both in Darfur 
and in post-2011 North-South relations. 
FERNANDEZ