O P 020937Z FEB 09
FM REO HILLAH
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1144
INFO IRAQ COLLECTIVE
REO HILLAH 1217

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000011 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  2/2/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: BABIL VOTE:  EARLY SIGNS OF A DECISIVE DAWA VICTORY 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth Hillas, Team Leader, Babil PRT, Dept of 
State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
¶1. (C) In a late February 1 conversation, Babil Governorate 
Election Office Director Hussein Al-Khalef confirmed that Da'wa 
had won a decisive victory.  Although IHEC has not yet released 
the initial vote results and the exact distribution of PC seats 
may take several weeks to determine, according to the GEO 
Director, it appears certain that Da'wa will dominate the new 
Provincial Council.  Da'wa Chair Abu Ahmed Al-Basri believes 
that his party mya have 15 or more seats on the new 30-seat PC, 
while his deputy had a slightly lower prediction of 13-14 seats. 
 Even discounting these expectations, Da'wa is well positioned 
to control the PC and select the new Governor. 
 
¶2.  (C) The GEO Director was unwilling to rank the other parties 
that appear to have won PC seats, making clear that there were a 
few "red" challenges still be to resolved that could affect the 
results.  Among these is a determination by the Integrity 
Commission on Governor Salim Saleh Al-Muslimawi's educational 
qualifications.  The Governor has asserted that he received a 
High School equivalent degree during his years of exile in Iran. 
This has been an on-again/off-again dispute within the PC 
itself, but the Governor has yet to submit the original degree 
document, according to the GEO Director, and he could still be 
excluded from taking a seat on the Council.  In any event, the 
ISCI coalition (Shaheed Al-Mihrab) faces a seemingly 
insumountable task of stitching together an alliance with other 
parties in order to hang on to power in Babil.  Underscoring 
ISCI's desperation, the day after the election Governor 
Al-Muslimawi (ISCI) called the head of the "Civilians"/Communist 
party to propose an alliance in the new PC, according to a 
communist PC member.  The communists rebuffed the Governor, whom 
they consider "no longer relevant," nowithstanding Buratha 
(pro-ISCI) media reports that ISCI has pulled ahead in the Babil 
vote count. 
 
¶3. (C ) According to the GEO Director, the other parties that 
fared well in Babil -- not necessarily in rank order, he 
stressed -- include Tayar Al-Ahrar (Sadrist), ISCI, Iraqi 
National Slate (led nationally by former PM Ayad Allawi) and 
former PM Al-Jaffari's Iraqi Reform Trend.  Notably absent from 
this list is former Governor Witwit's independent slate, as well 
as the Civilians (communists) party.  The latter, however, 
believes that it has won 4-5 seats, doubling their previous 
representation on the provincial council.  Sabah Allawi, 
provincial leader of the Iraqi National Slate, told the PRT that 
believes his party took second or third place, which is 
consistent with the GEO Director's preliminary information. 
 
¶4. (C) A Communist PC member confirmed that although his party 
rejected coooperation with ISCI, it was open to negotiations 
with Da'wa, which he said had transcended its sectarian roots. 
For his part, Al-Basri claimed that Da'wa had won a significant 
share of votes in predominantly Sunni areas of North Babil.  He 
also said Da'wa is prepared to govern the province on its own, 
suggesting that it may not be necessary to form an alliance with 
any other party. In any event, Al-Basri and other provincial 
Da'wa leaders have made a consistent effort to develop ties in 
the last year with the Sadrist Trend and Da'wa is well 
positioned to forge a partnership with Al-Ahrar in Babil, if 
necessary. 
 
HILLAS