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DE RUEHDR #0065/01 0330307
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020307Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8223
INFO RUEWMFC/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA//J3//

UNCLAS DAR ES SALAAM 000065 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT AF/E FOR JLIDDLE 
AFRICOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID MARR TZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING SHIP VISIT TO TANZANIA 
 
¶1. (U) Embassy welcomes the upcoming ship visit to Tanzania.  This 
cable provides background information on the U.S.-Tanzanian 
bilateral relationship and Tanzanian domestic issues.  This cable 
has been cleared by DATT. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although the U.S. and Tanzania do not have a Status of 
Forces Agreement, in the event of an incident involving a U.S. 
service member on shore during the visit, the Government of Tanzania 
(GOT) would likely work with the Embassy to resolve the situation 
and minimize public attention.  The Tanzania People's Defense Force 
(TPDF) in particular would be eager to seek an amicable resolution 
of any incident.  Tanzania has a generally free and very active 
press, some of which has a residual anti-American bias. An incident 
involving a U.S. service member would likely attract considerable 
local press attention. 
 
Political and Economic Background 
--------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) In 1992, Tanzania opened the door to multi-party democracy, 
transitioning from a single party, socialist state.  Under the 
stewardship of former President Mkapa, 
fundamental macro-reforms were introduced and Tanzania began its 
transition toward free-market capitalism.  With the landslide 
election of President Kikwete in 2005, Tanzania underwent its third 
peaceful transition to a new President.  Taken together, political 
and economic reforms introduced since 1992 have made Tanzania an 
example of peace and stability in the region. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Formidable challenges remain.  Located in a turbulent 
neighborhood, Tanzania is neighbor to eight countries, all with 
porous borders and a 1,500 kilometer coastline.  Tanzania is a 
member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), an 
association of its southern neighbors.  Tanzania is also a member of 
the East African Community (EAC), an association of its East African 
and Great Lakes neighbors, which is taking hesitant steps towards 
more free trade.  Infrastructure remains rudimentary; red tape and 
corruption impede private sector development.  There are positive 
signs that HIV/AIDS prevalence is not increasing and may be on a 
downward trend, as the HIV prevalence rate for 15-49 year-olds has 
decreased from seven percent (2003) to 5.7 percent (2007).  While 
elections on the Mainland have been free and fair, Tanzania is still 
a state dominated by the executive branch and the ruling Chama Cha 
Mapinduzi (CCM) party.  In Zanzibar, serious irregularities and 
sporadic violence marred elections in 1995, 2000, and 2005. 
 
¶5. (SBU) While Tanzania has achieved major macroeconomic reform over 
the past decade, macro-stability has yet to translate into 
significant gains at the micro level.  In the 2007-08 UN Development 
Program (UNDP) report, Tanzania ranked 159 out of 177 in the Human 
Development Index.  Despite impressive overall economic growth since 
2001, recently released poverty data shows over one million more 
people living in poverty as compared to 2001.  Per capita GDP is 
approximately USD 415 and some 80 percent of the population is 
engaged in agriculture, mostly small-scale.  The recent worldwide 
economic shocks have contributed to increased inflation, over ten 
percent for the first time in several years, as well as concerns 
about sustaining economic growth. 
 
U.S.-Tanzanian Bilateral Relationship 
------------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Since the election of President Kikwete in December 2005, 
U.S.-Tanzanian bilateral relations have significantly deepened. 
President Kikwete's pro-Western stance, coupled with an increasing 
level of U.S. assistance, has been the catalyst for this change, 
enhancing cooperation in sectors from health and education, to 
counterterrorism and military affairs.  President Kikwete has 
visited the U.S. several times since taking office, including an 
official visit with President Bush in Washington, D.C., in August 
¶2008.  During President Bush's historic trip to Tanzania in February 
2008, the relationship was further cemented through the public 
signing of the MCC compact and, equally importantly, the favorable 
reaction of Tanzanian citizenry to President Bush's visit to 
hospitals, factories and schools in Dar es Salaam and Arusha.  A 
2008 Pew Global Attitudes Poll showed a 19 percent increase, to 65 
percent, of Tanzanians who have a favorable attitude towards the 
U.S. 
 
¶7. (SBU) As a member of the UN Security Council (January 
2005-December 2006), Tanzania supported key resolutions sanctioning 
North Korea and Iran.  Tanzania did not fully support the USG's 
effort to address Burma's human rights situation in the Security 
Council, insisting the issue be dealt with in the Human Rights 
Council instead.  With respect to country specific human rights 
resolutions in the Third Committee, Tanzania has tended to abstain, 
but has supported the resolution on North Korea. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Under the leadership of President Kikwete, a former Foreign 
 
Minister, Tanzania has played an increasingly prominent role in 
regional issues.  Standing up to Sudan, the Kikwete administration 
was outspoken in its support of a UN peacekeeping mission to take 
over the African Union (AU) mission in Darfur and against Sudan 
assuming the AU Chairmanship in January 2007. President Kikwete was 
elected AU Chairman in January 2008 for a one-year term.  In that 
role, he overcame South African reticence to proceed with an AU 
mission to Comoros that restored national rule on the island of 
Anjouan.  He has also spoken out against the military coup in 
Mauritania, whose membership the AU suspended. 
 
¶9. (SBU) President Kikwete pledged to Secretary of State Rice in 
September 2007 to send three peacekeeping battalions to Darfur; one 
battalion has started training under the Department of State's ACOTA 
program.  Tanzania has also been supportive of our policy in Somalia 
and joined the Somalia Contact Group.  At the United States' behest, 
President Kikwete swiftly voiced his support for Ethiopia and the 
need for an African peacekeeping mission in Somalia.  Tanzania has 
long played a constructive role in the Burundi peace process. 
Within SADC, Tanzania's voice has been relatively muted on Zimbabwe. 
 
 
U.S. Strategic Priorities 
-------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) The USG's strategic priorities in Tanzania are: 
 (i) building the GOT's counterterrorism (CT) capacity; 
(ii) strengthening Tanzania's democratic institutions and 
accountability, through parliamentary capacity building and 
anti-corruption efforts; 
(iii) improving education by ensuring equal access and improved 
opportunities to underserved communities, especially focused on 
girls in Muslim and pastoral areas; 
(iv) improving health by preventing the spread and mitigating the 
impact of HIV/AIDS, combating malaria, and increasing the use of 
reproductive and child health services; 
(v) spurring economic growth through significant investments in 
transport, energy and water infrastructure, policy reform and 
improved natural resource management; and 
(vi) influencing public opinion, especially among Tanzania's 
Muslims, who tend to view U.S. policy as anti-Islam. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The USG supports these strategic priorities with active 
diplomatic engagement and a generous foreign assistance program. 
Although Tanzania enjoys the support of numerous donor countries, 
the U.S. is one of the top donors in Tanzania in dollar amounts.  In 
FY08, total USG bilateral assistance will amount to nearly USD 400 
million, including presidential initiatives such as PEPFAR and PMI. 
Taking into account the U.S. share of contributions from 
multilateral donors such as the World Bank and African Development 
Bank, U.S. assistance totaled USD 662 million in 2008.  This does 
not include major private U.S. benefactors such as the Gates 
Foundation.  Other major donors include the U.K., Sweden, 
Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and the European Commission. 
 
¶12. (SBU) To ensure that corruption does not undermine development 
efforts, we are sharply focused on supporting President Kikwete's 
anti-corruption campaign.  The Kikwete administration has taken 
steps to combat corruption, including appointing a new Director of 
the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) and passing 
two pieces of legislation: the Anti-Money Laundering Bill and the 
Anti-Corruption Bill.  Recently, the drive against corruption has 
picked up again.  The first major court cases on grand corruption 
began in November, with the arrests of individuals whose companies 
were alleged to have fraudulently received funds from the Bank of 
Tanzania (BOT), along with several BOT employees.  Shortly 
thereafter, two long-serving former ministers were jailed on 
corruption-related charges. 
 
¶13. (SBU) In the wake of the 1998 Embassy bombing, we are actively 
engaged in furthering counterterrorism (CT) cooperation with the 
Tanzanian government.  The Mission has an integrated strategy 
involving modernization of Tanzania's law enforcement as well as 
winning the hearts and minds of the Tanzanian people.  Our work in 
Pemba--a majority Muslim island--exemplifies this strategy.  We have 
knit together cultural preservation projects to repair mosques, 
self-help projects to improve rural livelihoods, and significant 
USAID malaria control and education programs.  MCC will rehabilitate 
and improve up to 36 kilometers of rural roads in Pemba under the 
Compact.  In addition, CDC is providing HIV prevention and treatment 
services at the central hospital in Pemba.  USAID and the Combined 
Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) are partnering to build 
and furnish a primary school.  The Mission recently inaugurated an 
American Corner in Pemba to advance Islamic outreach efforts. 
Another key component of the Mission's strategy is helping the 
government establish its own national, interagency CT Center to 
collect, share and analyze CT data. 
Zanzibar's Political Impasse 
---------------------------- 
¶14. (SBU) In his December 2005 inaugural address, President Kikwete 
pledged to address Zanzibar's "political problem," which involves 
the bitter divide between two political parties - CCM and the Civic 
United Front (CUF) - and between Zanzibar's two islands--Unguja and 
Pemba.  In 1995, 2000 and again in 2005, the Zanzibar elections were 
marred by irregularities.  A National Democratic Institute observer 
team reported "serious problems in Zanzibar's urban region where 40 
percent of the registered voters reside."  While 2005 did register 
some administrative improvements and violence was contained, the 
elections still concluded in an impasse.  CUF contested the 
elections and refused to recognize President Karume's government. 
 
¶15. (SBU) In January 2007, official reconciliation talks finally 
began between the CCM Secretary-General Makamba and CUF's 
Secretary-General Malim Seif Hamad.  However, after fitful 
negotiations, the talks appear to be at a stalemate. 
 
¶16. (SBU) CUF leaders remain adamant that their bottom line is the 
formation of a power-sharing government in advance of the 2010 
elections.  CUF leaders have repeatedly emphasized that without a 
government of national unity, the 2010 elections will be neither 
free nor fair; they have warned that their membership is becoming 
increasingly restless and disillusioned with the democratic process. 
 
 
¶17. (SBU) The CCM party, particularly President Karume and his inner 
circle, appears unwilling to implement a power-sharing agreement 
prior to the 2010 elections and have called for a referendum on the 
issues.  However, a referendum election without proper oversight in 
place risks raising tensions in Zanzibar even higher.  While 
President Kikwete has personally monitored progress of the talks, he 
has not yet wielded his position as CCM party chairman or his 
offices as Head of State to successfully broker an agreement that 
would be fair and equitable to both sides. 
 
Military-to-Military Relations 
------------------------------ 
¶18. (SBU) Under the Kikwete administration, the GOT has expressed 
its intent to begin participating in international peacekeeping 
operations.  In 2006, Tanzania became our newest partner in the 
African Contingency Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program.  With 
Kikwete's offer to deploy a peacekeeping brigade to Darfur under UN 
auspices, the Mission's goal is to train three Tanzanian battalions 
by 2009.  These battalions will not only contribute to UN 
deployments but will also constitute part of an AU regional standby 
brigade.  (Note: Tanzania demonstrated its intent to become more 
active in peacekeeping by deploying 75 military police to Lebanon in 
January 2007 to help secure the UNIFIL mission.  Under ACOTA, the 
USG will train a third company to rotate into UNIFIL.) 
 
¶19. (SBU) The Tanzanian government has also signaled its desire to 
deepen military-to-military ties with the U.S.  more broadly. In 
December 2006, the GOT gave approval to CJTF-HOA to establish a 
Civil Affairs presence on the Swahili Coast.  The Civil Affairs team 
is carrying out humanitarian projects and helping build civil 
military operations capacity within the Tanzania People's Defence 
Forces (TPDF).  In early 2008, the USG provided logistical 
assistance to support the African Union-led military operation in 
the Comoros Islands. 
 
Health Challenges: HIV/AIDS and Malaria 
--------------------------------------- 
¶20. (SBU) Tanzania faces a mature generalized HIV epidemic, with a 
prevalence rate of approximately 5.7 percent and 1.4 million people 
living with HIV/AIDS.  An estimated 440,000 individuals are 
clinically eligible for antiretroviral treatment; however, available 
services can support less than half of those in need.  In FY 2008, 
PEPFAR provided Tanzania with over USD 313 million to support 
treatment, care, and prevention programs.  In FY 2009, the PEPFAR 
planning budget is $308 million.  The PEPFAR program is on track to 
exceed its original PEPFAR targets: 150,000 individuals on 
anti-retroviral drugs; care for 750,000 individuals, including 
orphans and vulnerable children; and prevention of 490,000 new HIV 
infections.  Although the U.S. has fostered positive relationships 
with the Tanzanian government in the health sector, significant 
challenges remain including: the need for stronger leadership in 
line ministries; poor health infrastructure; a shortage of health 
care workers; a weak government procurement system; and allegations 
of corruption in the public and private sectors.  We recently 
entered into very productive negotiations with the GOT on a PEPFAR 
Partnership Compact, which would deepen our relationship over the 
coming five years. 
 
¶21. (SBU) Malaria is the number one killer of children in Tanzania 
and continues to be a major cause of maternal mortality.  As a focus 
country under the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), Tanzania 
received USD 34 million in FY 2008 to support the delivery of 
long-lasting, insecticide treated bed-nets, the care and treatment 
of malaria, the malaria in pregnancy program, and indoor residual 
insecticide spraying.  Malaria has been eliminated as a public 
health problem on Zanzibar: the recent 2007-2008 Malaria Indicator 
Survey (MIS) suggests that malaria prevalence is less than 1% on the 
islands PMI, and PMI's goal of reducing malaria deaths by 50% has 
been met both in Zanzibar and the Mainland. 
 
Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) 
-------------------------------------- 
¶22. (SBU) In February 2008, Presidents Kikwete and Bush signed the 
largest MCC Compact to date, USD 698 million.  The Compact will 
strengthen Tanzania's infrastructure network in three key areas: 
transportation (roads and the Mafia Island airport), water, and 
energy.  It entered into full force and effect in September 2008. 
Our message continues to be that a Compact is an agreement of 
reciprocal responsibilities; to sustain it over five years, Tanzania 
must pay heed to its corruption index and be vigilant at all levels 
to ensure transparency and accountability in governance. 
 
¶23. (SBU) Tanzania also received MCC Threshold funds - USD 11.2 
million - from FY2005 to 2007.  The Threshold program, which closed 
in September 2008, focused on, among other things, enhancing civil 
society's capacity to demand anti-corruption reform and fighting 
corruption in public procurement. The program trained more than 250 
journalists in investigative reporting skills; some of these 
journalists were involved in breaking grand corruption stories.  The 
program also enhanced local-level accountability by helping 
establish a network of 77 public expenditure tracking committees. 
Finally, and most importantly, the Threshold program helped the 
country's procurement regulator carry out several audits of the 
procurement practices of key GOT entities; in February 2008, one of 
these audits sparked and informed a Parliamentary investigation 
which resulted in the resignation of the Prime Minister. 
 
ANDRE