VZCZCXRO3977
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHTN #0035/01 0480954
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170954Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2962
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SF PGOV
SUBJECT: HOLOMISA CLAIMS UDM DOING WELL, REALISTIC ABOUT 
CHANCES 
 
 ¶1. (SBU)  Summary: United Democratic Movement (UDM) 
President Bantu Holomisa told members of the diplomatic corps 
that his party is poised to perform as well as it did in the 
2004 election, when it won 9 parliamentary seats.  Holomisa 
met with diplomats for breakfast on February 10 in Cape Town. 
 The UDM leader said the party,s support has not grown 
substantially during the past five years and that it has not 
faltered since the formation of the Congress of the People 
(COPE).  Assessing that the UDM would not pick up significant 
support shows the UDM leader is realistic about his party,s 
chances for success at the polls.  End Summary. 
 
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Holomisa in Election Mode 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  UDM President Bantu Holomisa and his top advisers 
met with the diplomatic corps on February 10 in Cape Town. 
Holomisa thanked the international community for its 
continued support for democracy in South Africa and noted 
that the upcoming election will be more important than any 
election since 1994.  He then turned to his projections for 
how each party would perform in the election.  He said a few 
months ago he would have projected COPE to win between 20 and 
30 percent of the vote.  He noted, "I see them now getting 
between 10 and 15 percent.  They are losing momentum because 
there is little difference between the ANC (African National 
Congress), UDM, and COPE."  He thought that COPE would do 
well in Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape, and 
Limpopo, but was less convinced about the rest of the 
country.  He said several times throughout his remarks that 
he is hoping that COPE does well at the polls because he "has 
a soft spot for them." 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Holomisa said it is clear that the ANC will lose 
its two-thirds majority in Parliament.  However, he made it 
clear that the ruling party would not lose its hold on power 
completely.  He said, "Forty to fifty percent of the 
country,s population disapproves of (ANC President Jacob) 
Zuma becoming a national leader."  Yet, he noted that what 
helps the ANC is that as voters splinter to other parties or 
elect not to vote, all the ANC must do is turn out its core 
supporters.  He judged that the ANC would turn out its core 
supporters for this election.  Holomisa said, "The ANC will 
do well in Eastern Cape, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga.  They will 
keep many of their core supporters." 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The UDM leader assessed the Democratic Alliance 
(DA) would win the Western Cape based on the fact that Helen 
Zille is so popular.  He said that having her as a leader 
helps the DA even though many still view it as a "white 
party."  He thought the DA would do well in some metropolitan 
areas and largely retain its core support.  On the 
Independent Democrats (ID), Holomisa reflected that the party 
would have support in Western Cape and Northern Cape.  He 
said, "The ID and the UDM are on about equal footing." 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Holomisa proclaimed that the UDM's support appears 
to be holding steady from the previous national election.  He 
noted that "our membership is intact, which is a good sign." 
He assessed his party would perform well in Eastern Cape, but 
would have difficulty elsewhere in the country.  Holomisa 
said that funding was the primary reason why the UDM has been 
unable to grow in recent years and urged the international 
community to fund political parties across the board to help 
level the playing field in South Africa.  He said that the 
party would consider forming coalitions after the election 
results are announced "if forming an alliance makes sense." 
According to the UDM leadership, it makes most sense for the 
QAccording to the UDM leadership, it makes most sense for the 
party to seek a partnership with COPE.  However, presently 
there have not been talks about such a relationship. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Holomisa closed the luncheon by again thanking the 
international community for all it has done in South Africa. 
He then requested that the diplomatic corps do its utmost to 
ensure free and fair voting at the polls.  He said, "We do 
not see violence being much of an issue for this election. 
What worries us is how the ANC may intimidate voters by not 
allowing the opposition to have space." 
 
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Comment 
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¶7. (SBU)  Holomisa's remarks underscore how the UDM leader is 
realistic about his party,s chances for success at the 
polls.  The UDM appears to have little chance of success 
beyond Eastern Cape, but Holimisa's sentiments about COPE 
suggest both parties may be willing to work toward a common 
future if such an arrangement is politically advantageous. 
 
 
 
CAPE TOWN 00000035  002 OF 002 
 
 
MAYBERRY