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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SF PGOV
SUBJECT: COPE IN HOLDING PATTERN IN FACE OF UNCERTAINTIES 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary: The Congress of the People (COPE) has yet 
to decide upon a presidential candidate for the election and 
increasingly is focusing its efforts on Eastern Cape and 
Limpopo, according to party National Spokesman Philip Dexter. 
 Dexter met with members of the diplomatic corps on February 
10 in Cape Town.  Saying that the party has been in a 
"holding pattern" since its manifesto launch, he conceded 
that true campaigning would begin once the election date is 
announced.  (Note:  President Kgalema Motlanthe announced on 
February 10 that the election would take place on April 22. 
End Note.)  He said that there are many uncertainties ahead 
of the election, including parts of the country COPE can 
expect to perform well in and who will be the face of the 
party when "true campaigning" begins.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
"We Must Wait and See" 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  COPE National Spokesman Philip Dexter met with 
members of the diplomatic corps at an informal luncheon on 
February 10 in Cape Town.  Dexter told the guests that the 
party is focusing its attention now on "winning areas it can 
win such as Eastern Cape and Limpopo."  He acknowledged that 
it is difficult to know where COPE can do well given the lack 
of reliable polling.  The best polling data he has seen comes 
from an "unnamed political party" that projects the African 
National Congress (ANC) to win 52 percent of vote.  However, 
Dexter asserted that the party,s strength in Eastern Cape is 
"self-evident" given its well-attended manifesto launch in 
Port Elizabeth last month.  He projected that the party could 
seriously weaken the ANC in the province or could win the 
province outright.  (Note:  His estimation of strength in 
Eastern Cape may be optimistic given the ANC,s strength in 
the province.  See Reftel for more information.  End Note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU)   Dexter related that in Limpopo the "ANC has 
serious problems."  He said that there are fundamental 
divisions within ANC branches in the province that should 
lead to permanent breaks in coming weeks.  He noted, "There 
are breaks that are coming.  The divorces that will happen in 
that province will be messy, but they will come sooner rather 
than later."  He stated that COPE should do well in the 
province because of such turmoil.  As for the other 
provinces, Dexter noted that "we have all but given up on 
KwaZulu Natal."  He said that it has been very difficult for 
the party to make inroads there.  He projected that the party 
would do well in Western Cape and Northern Cape, but said 
attaining an outright majority in either province would be 
"unrealistic."  When asked by the French Ambassador whether 
COPE would consider coalitions in either province, Dexter 
said that "right now the party is looking only to win."  He 
did say later on at the luncheon that COPE probably would not 
consider alliances with the ANC or with the Democratic 
Alliance.  He noted that an alliance with the ANC would 
"kill" COPE and an alliance with the DA would signal that the 
party is supporting divisions along racial lines.  (Note: 
Dexter did not speak to how well COPE could do in any of the 
other provinces.  End Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Dexter said the party has yet to decide who will be 
its face for the election.  He noted, "I can,t imagine that 
there will be any surprises so you know it will be either 
(COPE President Mosioua) Lekota or (COPE Deputy President 
Mbhazima) Shilowa."  Dexter said that who emerges as the 
presidential candidate will be up to the party,s branches 
and that the party probably would announce its presidential 
candidate next week.  He said former Deputy President 
Qcandidate next week.  He said former Deputy President 
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka would formally declare her allegiance 
to COPE "soon," but did not consider her a viable candidate 
to be the party,s presidential candidate.  He also noted 
that there would be more defections in coming weeks by ANC 
leaders "whose futures are no longer with the organization." 
 
------------------------------------ 
On the South African Communist Party 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Dexter, once National Treasurer of the South 
African Communist Party (SACP) before defecting to COPE, 
offered a few comments on the organization.  Describing 
himself as a Marxist but "not a stupid Marxist," Dexter 
described an SACP that is in serious trouble.  He noted that 
the organization,s claim of having 80,000 members is 
completely untrue.  SACP has only 12,000 members, according 
to figures he collected and collated before he left.  He 
asked, "How can SACP claim that members are willing to give 
their lives to socialism while they are unwilling to pay a 
monthly membership fee?"  He noted that had SACP left the 
alliance and contested elections on its own ahead of the 2006 
 
CAPE TOWN 00000033  002 OF 002 
 
 
local election, the party would today be a force in South 
African politics.  However, he said that the decision to stay 
in the alliance and support ANC President Jacob Zuma was a 
"strategic blunder" because it means the organization is no 
longer a "fulcrum of ideas in South Africa." 
 
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Comment 
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¶6. (SBU)  Dexter,s commentary shows that COPE is in a 
holding pattern as it faces uncertainty over how well it will 
perform in the election and who will be the party,s 
presidential candidate.  Several members of the diplomatic 
corps remarked in muffled tones that the party seems to have 
lost momentum following its manifesto launch and the way COPE 
is handling its leadership situation and its campaign thus 
far suggest the party has work to do to pick up steam. 
Defections from leaders such as Mlambo-Ngcuka and others may 
give COPE a boost, but the party,s intention to focus on 
pre-selected targets such as Eastern Cape and Limpopo may 
make such a boost insufficient to supplant the ANC. 
MAYBERRY