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DE RUEHWN #0099/01 0431038
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O 121038Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7095
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1926
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000099 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2024 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ST CN XL
SUBJECT: ANTIGUA,S RULING PARTY FAVORED TO WIN ELECTION; 
MUD SLINGING STARTS EARLY 
 
Classified By: Charge d,Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C).  Antiguan Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer dissolved 
parliament February 9 to launch what will be a hotly 
contested election season.  Spencer did not announce an 
election date, but hinted he will do so soon, with an 
election date expected by the end of March.  The ruling 
United Progressive Party (UPP) is forecast to win by many 
pundits, but the faltering economy and a large disaffected 
immigrant population could swing votes to the opposition 
Antigua Labour Party (ALP).  Opposition ALP-instigated rumors 
of suspect campaign contributions and outright vote buying 
have so far not overcome dogged UPP allegations of ALP 
corruption during their many years in power.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Elections Call Soon, But Soon Enough For UPP? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) After dissolving parliament February 9, Antigua Prime 
Minister Baldwin Spencer is expected to announce an election 
date sometime in the first half of March.  He is 
constitutionally obligated to call for elections no later 
than March 25, setting a date that is not later than 90 days 
after that.  Most commentators and members of both political 
parties agree that he will call elections to be held by the 
end of March at the latest.  Most people in his own party 
feel that if the PM had called for elections in October, 2008 
as many in the Party had urged, the UPP would have won 
easily.  While most voters realize that the downturn in the 
economy is not the fault of the government and will vote 
accordingly, economic conditions are making the elections 
closer than they would have been just four months ago, 
Finance Minister Errol Cort told PolOff in a recent meeting. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Opposition Given a Fighter,s Chance 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  The consensus of the media and many in the business 
community is that the UPP will hold most of their 13 seats, 
perhaps losing one or two seats that were closely contested 
last time.  (Note: the UPP holds 13 of the 17 seats in 
parliament versus 4 for the ALP.  End note.)  That said, the 
ALP has made gains in recent polls, and, if the economy 
worsens drastically between now and the election, it is 
possible the ALP could win as many as 10 seats in the next 
elections, according to social commentator Winston Derrick. 
UPP President Leon Smester argued that the UPP will win all 
but 2 seats and one of those, the seat held by ALP MP Asot 
Michael will be vacated when he goes to prison on corruption 
charges.  Minority leader Stedroy "Cutie" Benjamin, 
meanwhile, told Poloff that ALP polls show they will win the 
election by a comfortable margin. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
The Party Base and Swing Vote Constituencies 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  Both sides claim to be the party of the working 
class with strong ties to the growing middle class.  However, 
most polls indicate that the UPP does best among the educated 
middle-class, while also maintaining a comfortable margin 
with the working class.  The ALP,s weakness with the 
educated middle class stems from allegations of corruption, 
which still dog the party,s leadership, particularly former 
PM Bird, according to regional political commentator and 
pollster Peter Wickham.  At the same time, backlash against 
the personal income-tax regime instituted under the UPP, 
which many in the middle-class feel disproportionably burdens 
them, makes that constituency anything but a sure bet for the 
UPP.  Both sides agree that the immigrant population, which 
accounts for nearly 25 percent of the electorate, leans 
heavily in favor of the ALP and must prove decisive if the 
ALP hopes to win.  (Note: The Antiguan constitution grants 
Commonwealth nationals the right to vote after three years of 
residency.) 
 
-------------------------- 
Whither the Party Leaders? 
-------------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (C)  The real problem that the ALP faces is a leadership 
problem, Cort contended to us privately.  The head of the 
party and presumptive PM is former PM Lester Bird, who no 
longer sits in parliament following a loss to Cort in the 
2004 elections.  The most recent poll conducted by the 
Antigua Sun showed Cort leading Bird 47 percent to 32 
percent, leading few to believe that Bird can win his seat 
back.  This creates a genuine problem for the ALP, who would 
have no presumptive PM should they win.  Voters are not 
comfortable with the idea of Cutie Benjamin running the 
country, Cort added, and other candidates such as Gaston 
Browne continue to be dogged by corruption allegations.  Gail 
Christian, the ALP candidate running against PM Spencer, said 
she expected one of the three women running for seats on the 
ALP ticket would most likely be put forward as presumptive PM 
if the ALP wins the election and Bird loses to Cort. 
 
¶6. (C) Many people believe that Prime Minister Baldwin 
Spencer is a lock to win his seat, but independent polls show 
the race within 5 points at this point. The Prime Minister,s 
decision to postpone elections and his penchant for overseas 
travel and the limelight is a negative that he is going to 
have to address when the campaign starts in earnest, Minister 
of Education Bernard Joseph told Poloff.  Moreover, the 
much-publicized rift between the Government and the island,s 
wealthiest family, the Hadeeds, led former UPP Minister of 
State Aziz Hadeed to clandestinely provide financial backing 
to Gail Christian.  Hadeed told PolOff privately that while 
he is publicly on the sidelines, he is personally funding 
Christian,s campaign against Spencer.  The best thing that 
could happen to Antigua, he explained, is if both Bird and 
Spencer lose their seats in the up coming election. 
 
---------------- 
Campaign Finance 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (C)  Among the more pervasive rumors this election season 
is the much reported 15 Million USD "secret" contribution 
alleged to have been provided to the ALP by Texas billionaire 
and dual Antiguan citizen Allen Stanford.  The Stanford 
Development Group has in excess of one billion USD in 
investments on the island according to a multitude of 
well-placed sources.  The ALP maintains this is mere rumor, 
adding that Stanford,s fear of the PM has caused him to 
remain neutral.  In fact, they claimed, neither Stanford nor 
the Hadeeds have provided any financing to the ALP out of 
fear that the UPP will "go after them" if they should win the 
next election. 
 
¶8. (C)  Campaign paraphernalia abounds on the island, with 
tens of thousands of banners, flags, t-shirts and posters 
seen all over the country.  The ALP claims that they have 
been solidly outspent by the UPP, which they say has three 
times as many posters and other paraphernalia up across the 
country.  A prima facie survey conducted by PolOff seems to 
bear out this claim.  The ALP also claims to be entirely 
self-funded, largely through liens against property owned by 
Asot Michael, an ALP MP under investigation for corruption 
charges involving the purchase of government property. 
 
¶9. (C)  The UPP claims similar poverty, but despite these 
claims, the nation is emblazoned with the blue and yellow 
colors of the party,s flags and banner.  The UPP received 
three containers of campaign paraphernalia with tens of 
thousands of flags, buttons, t-shirts and posters in just the 
last month, the ALP contends.  The campaign supplies were 
arranged for by the Chinese Ambassador, say ALP sources. 
 
¶10.  (C) Hadeed noted further that Venezuela is also a strong 
financial backer of the UPP and particularly PM Spencer, who 
has been an ally for Chavez within the region.  Despite their 
claim to have the backing of the middle classes, Hadeed 
explained, the UPP does not have the financial backing of the 
large business interests on this island and their need for 
money has led them to accept money from foreign sources, 
notably Venezuela and China. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Antigua has no campaign financing restriction or 
reporting requirements outside of the 21-day period between 
the time when the Governor General certifies the elections 
and the polls open, Electoral Commission Chairman Watt 
explained.  Watt lamented the amount of money being spent on 
this election, terming it "obscene".  "Everyone knows", he 
said, that little brown envelopes with cash are being 
 
distributed to households in districts with close races, but 
there is no electoral body with the authority to provide 
oversight for these kinds of "shenanigans."  Contradicting 
complaints by the ALP, Watt noted that Spencer had in fact 
invited foreign observers, including from the OAS, but he 
said there could be no formal response from observers until 
an election date was set. 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
ALP Promises Closer Ties After Win 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C)  According to ALP Chairman Gaston Browne, the UPP has 
taken a giant step towards countries like Cuba, Venezuela and 
China unfriendly to the United States. He noted that Antigua 
no longer votes with the United States on human rights issues 
in the UN and has even taken to siding with Iran on issues 
where we are natural partners with the U.S.  Browne claimed 
that the most disturbing trend was the growing level of 
military cooperation with China and Venezuela, adding that 
only last summer a Chinese General and several other officers 
from the People,s Liberation Army (PLA) came to provide 
military training for the Antigua and Barbuda Defense Force. 
According to Browne, this represented a marked difference 
from the ALP, which He claimed had always supported military 
training and cooperation with the U.S. military.  "What does 
a one-party state military like the PLA have to teach the 
military forces in a democracy like Antigua," he added.  The 
ALP, Browne promised, would change this wrong course that the 
UPP has chosen. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13. (C) While the outcome of this election is far from clear, 
the consensus among non-partisans is that the UPP will be 
given another term to show they can run the country. 
Widespread allegations of past corruption continue to drag 
down the popularity of the opposition ALP and will likely 
prove the core issue that returns the UPP to power.  That 
said, if the economy continues to collapse and unemployment 
rises sharply, the ALP could return to power. 
 
¶14.  (C)  Incendiary allegations by the ALP concerning the 
cozy relationship that Spencer has with Chavez and growing 
closeness with the Chinese are not new.  In the Antiguan 
political landscape, the ALP under the Birds had always 
steered close to the United States on international issues, 
while Spencer in opposition had generally leaned leftward, 
particularly in supporting Cuba.  The ALP certainly hopes 
that its promises of closer ties and greater cooperation on 
substantive issues can help position the party as more likely 
to build close ties with the new U.S. administration 
(President Obama is wildly popular in Antigua).  Also in the 
background has been a rumor - no doubt planted by the ALP -- 
that the U.S. is supporting the ALP due to the UPP's growing 
relationship with Venezuela.  This rumor is pervasive enough 
that Minister Cort asked PolOff directly if the U.S. was 
providing material support for the ALP.  PolOff explained 
that the U.S. is not interested in the specific outcome of 
the elections, only that the elections are free and fair, 
reflecting the will of the Antiguan people. 
HARDT