VZCZCXRO1146
PP RUEHBZ RUEHGI RUEHTRO
DE RUEHGI #0047/01 0551624
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 241624Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BANGUI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0841
INFO RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0411
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0388
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0137
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0124
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0236
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0227
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 0101
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0122
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0398
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 0019
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0091
RHMFISS/AFRICOM
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1055

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000047 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C SSARDAR, MASHRAF, SLOPEZ, KWYCOFF 
PARIS FOR RKANEDA 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
NAIROBI FOR CANDERSON 
AFRICOM FOR KOCH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT
SUBJECT: THE BANGUI SPRING HAS COME TO AN END 
 
REF: BANGUI 00012; BANGUI 00045, BANGUI 00046 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: 2009 began on a note of unprecedented 
optimism; the formal peace accords with all major rebel groups 
and the completion of another "Political Dialogue" made it 
possible to imagine that real progress might be possible.  To be 
sure, all was not perfect; the government of national unity 
looked more like just one more shuffle of the same suspects and 
it was not clear that the opposition, armed and disarmed, had 
begun any effort to get to know each other or organize 
themselves into the kinds of groups that might be able to 
influence the future through the follow on committees and thus 
lay the foundations for successful elections in 2010.  This has 
all changed for the worse in the last month.  This telegram is a 
catalog of the things that AmEmbassy Bangui is following.  It is 
too early to assess the full implications and interrelationships 
between these events, but it is clear that at best, the "Bangui 
Spring" is over.  At worst, the Bozize government may face the 
real prospect of collapse or overthrow in the coming year.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
---------------------------- 
NEW ARMED GROUP IN THE NORTH 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As reported 09 BANGUI 12, there is a new armed group 
(CPJP - Patriotic Convention for Justice and Peace) that is 
active in the north.  This is particularly worrisome because: 
 
-- While the group draws its force from long term ethnic tension 
between the Rounga and Goula tribes, the leadership of the group 
may well be Chadian or Sudanese; former members of the President 
Bozize's Presidential Guard (GP).  Intelligent observers in the 
region, to include the Sultan/Mayor of Ndele (STRICTLY PROTECT) 
are very worried that conflict will spread across the Vakaga 
region unless the Central African Government (CARG) takes 
immediate action to resolve the issues.  He sees no signs that 
this is happening. 
 
-- All indications are that President Bozize has decided to 
"resolve the issue by force."  He is reported to have said as 
much in his Sango (but not French) speech in Ndele on World Food 
Day and a Minister made the same comment to the DCM. 
 
-- The FACA's apparent return to their failed tactics of 
violence and intimidation has already produced a flow of over 
5,000 refugees across the border to Chad with more following at 
a rate of 150 per day. Furthermore at least 2,800 confirmed IPDs 
have been documented north of Ndele. 
 
----------------------- 
JAIL BREAK IN BOSSAMBELE 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) At 0100 on 14 February, unknown persons attacked the 
military camp/prison at Bossambele.  Reports and rumors are 
contradictory, but it appears that: 
 
-- Some 15 "Sudanese" were freed.  This is believed to be a 
group of anti-Khartoum rebels who were seized in Birao, CAR in 
April of 2008.  The group is reported to have fled to the north 
and also reported to have abandoned a car on the eastern side of 
Ndele, on the road to Birao. 
 
-- Two guards were killed. 
 
-- There are reports that part of the base was burned, including 
the FACA trucks and, more ominously, there are reports that 
quantities of "heavy" weapons were taken. 
 
¶4. (SBU) While there is a press release that this attack was 
carried out by the same group that is operating north of Ndele, 
it seems unlikely that such a small group could cover so much 
territory, so fast.  Whatever the real truth, the attack is 
reported to have been well organized and it is alarming that an 
 
BANGUI 00000047  002 OF 003 
 
 
armed group can attack the CAR's main prison, less than 300 
kilometers from Bangui, with impunity. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
NEW AND OLD PLAYERS IN THE SAME OLD GAME 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) As reported 09 BANGUI 45, in the early morning of 
Saturday, 21 February, elements from the FDPC (Democratic Front 
of the Central African People) attacked the towns of Batangafo 
and Kabo in Northwestern CAR and absconded with weapons and 
ammunition.  The FDPC, led by General Abdoulaye Miskine 
(currently in Libya) claims that some 400 troops attacked the 
town.  Post believes the number was more likely 50, but more 
troubling are reports that hundreds of demobilized FDPC 
combatants have rejoined the group.  Miskine, and his new 
political ally Abakar Saboun of the MLCJ (Movement of the 
Central African Liberators for Justice), rejected the national 
peace talks of late last year and are believed to be agitating 
for further concessions.  The FDPC may be the force behind the 
Bossambele prison break. (See their website at: 
http://www.centrafriquefdpc.com/) 
 
-------------------------------- 
BAD GOVERNANCE AND BAD PRACTICES 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Perhaps lulled into a sense of security by the peace 
accords and the Political Dialogue, the Bozize government 
continues its practices of bad governance seeming to prefer to 
focus on corruption and money making schemes rather than 
addressing serious political challenges or development needs. 
Examples include: 
 
-- Appointment of Saifee Durbar as Vice Minister of Foreign 
Affairs.  Durbar, sought on fraud charges in France, has been 
instrumental in frustrating the progress of the Canadian mining 
company AXMIN (Aurafrique).  As some thirty per cent of AXMIN's 
stock is held by U.S. citizens, this is directly contrary to 
U.S. economic interests. 
 
-- The closure of eight of the twelve licensed diamond trading 
companies in Bangui as well as the seizure of all diamonds, cash 
and records from the diamond collection agencies in Berberati 
and Bria.  While there may be legitimate reasons for this 
action, the popular perception is simply that Minister of Mines 
Sylvain Ndoutingai is doing as a way to extort additional money. 
 There are credible, but unconfirmed reports that he is 
operating several unlicensed diamond mines on the Cameroonian 
border, near the wildlife reserve at Bayanga. 
 
-- The conventional wisdom is that the Central African 
population is too demoralized to take any action.  AmEmbassy has 
thus noted with great interest small but increasing reports of 
public discontent, including a police station looted and burned 
following a police killing and tires being burned in the streets 
of the industrial (by local standards) town of Bimbo, some five 
kilometers from Bangui.  People were protesting increasing power 
outages; outages that continue despite the fact they continue to 
pay their power bills.  Press coverage of the Bozize government 
remains uniformly critical. 
 
---------------------- 
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The most astute political observers in Bangui believe 
that Libya is funding the FDPC in the interest of deposed 
president Patasse.  If the Libyans have, in fact, decided to 
fund a rebel group and especially the group that is 
traditionally the best led and armed, then this is very bad news 
for the Bozize government which can barely govern on the best of 
days.  While there is no immediate danger of the rebels marching 
into Bangui or the immediate collapse of the Bozize government, 
 
BANGUI 00000047  003 OF 003 
 
 
things do not look good.  Even if these are all simply maneuvers 
to gain political advantage in the aftermath of the Inclusive 
Political Dialogue and in the run up to the elections of 2010, 
this new round of violence has already cased a humanitarian 
disaster in the CAR and will slow the already glacial pace of 
economic development. 
 
Specific warning signs include: 
 
-- Breakaways by the APRD or the UFDR.  This might include their 
further splintering into new groups. 
 
-- Effective cooperation or joint operations by any of the major 
rebel groups.  Any two might well have the military force to 
overthrow the Bozize government. 
 
-- Popular discontent transferred into action.  This could 
include street demonstrations or the defection of elected or 
appointed officials to the rebel groups. 
 
-- Evidence of increased intervention by foreign states such as 
Libya or Chad. 
COOK