VZCZCXRO5782
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0520/01 0591451
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 281451Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1918
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000520 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2019 
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: IN DIWANIYAH PROVINCE, POLITICAL 
COALITION-BUILDING HAMPERED BY DA'WA INFIGHTING 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 314 
 
Classified By: PRT Team Leader Michael Klecheski for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d). 
 
This is a PRT Diwaniyah reporting cable. 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Although Da'wa, which won 11 of Diwaniyah's 
28 Provincial Council (PC) seats, is in a strong political 
position, infighting within that party has left the 
governorship and PC chairmanship up for grabs.  Under the 
circumstances, coalition-building is proving a difficult, 
albeit peaceful process, with current indications that the 
Sadrists will join Da'wa as the core of a leadership 
coalition.  End summary. 
 
Da'wa Infighting 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) On the Diwaniyah political scene, the week since the 
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced how 
many seats each party would get as a result of the provincial 
election has been dominated by infighting within Da'wa. 
Ahead of that announcement, talk about the next governor had 
centered on the party's leader in the province, Salim Hussein 
Alwan (reftel), and he continues to be viewed as a 
front-runner.  Recently, however, leading sheikhs have been 
telling us that Fadel Mawat, chief of the Tribal Support 
Council, is also a serious contender.  The two reportedly 
went to Baghdad shortly after the IHEC announcement in what 
proved an unsuccessful attempt to reach agreement. 
 
¶3.  (C) In a February 27 meeting, Hussein Ali al Sha'lan, a 
Council of Representatives member with Iraqiyah ties and 
arguably the province's most influential sheikh, told us that 
huge differences remain within Da'wa and the State of Law 
coalition.  Neither of the two top contenders willing to back 
off and other Da'wa party figures also hoping to get the 
governorship.  Meeting with us in between sessions in the 
provincial capital to find common ground, Sha'lan said no 
resolution is in sight for the moment.  A local journalist 
told us that, under the circumstances, an independent might 
become governor. 
 
Da'wa-Sadrist Alliance Likely 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) According to Sheikh Sha'lan, Da'wa is likely to forge 
an alliance with the Sadrists to create a majority in the PC. 
 For his part, Sha'lan expressed concern about allowing the 
Sadrists a position of power in Diwaniyah, although he hoped 
that if that proved the case, they would feel obliged to act 
responsibly.  Whether or not ISCI was also included in the 
alliance, it was likely to get at least some leadership slot 
in order to buy it off, he commented. 
 
¶5.  (C) Sha'lan was one of several of our contacts who said 
that, despite the current problems, the next administration 
would be more constructive than the current one.  The 
transition would cause some challenges, he noted, and the new 
governor would likely remove at least some of the incumbent 
Directors General, but eventually, things would stabilize 
under a less religiously focused, more competent set of 
officials.  Several local journalists shared that view, 
expressing hope that they would have more leeway to do their 
work without harassment than at present.  Assuming the new 
governor came from Da'wa, one journalist speculated that he 
would seek to be maximally effective in order to further 
strengthen that party's image ahead of the upcoming series of 
elections. 
 
Complaints from Losing Entities 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Immediately following the election, we had heard 
relatively few charges of fraud.  Such charges subsequently 
increased, however.  Several sheikhs favorable to Allawi's 
party, for instance, told us they had proof that their party 
had been cheated out of second place in the province.  (They 
Qhad been cheated out of second place in the province.  (They 
did not identify the nature of that proof.) 
 
¶7.  (C) The complaints culminated in a peaceful demonstration 
on February 21 by representatives of a number of parties (the 
exact number is in dispute), which began at a Diwaniyah city 
mosque and proceeded to Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) 
headquarters.  Estimates of participation ranged from 150 to 
1,000 people.  When we contacted Diwaniyah's GEO head that 
day, he dismissed it as insignificant while relaying to us 
reports that political forces in Baghdad had engineered it 
for their own purposes.  The demonstration has so far had no 
further resonance. 
 
 
BAGHDAD 00000520  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶8.  (C) Comment: After years of ISCI rule, Da'wa is clearly 
looking forward to political dominance in Diwaniyah.  The 
current infighting is somewhat debilitating for the moment, 
and has proven a bit of an embarrassment to the party in the 
province.  Who becomes the new governor and PC chair remains 
entirely unclear, and Da'wa will need to form what could 
prove a fairly complicated coalition.  Nonetheless, we remain 
hopeful that the province's next governing team will prove 
appreciably easier to deal with than the current one and we 
are laying the groundwork for expanded cooperation with it. 
End comment. 
BUTENIS