VZCZCXRO8380
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHWR #0003 0011345
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011345Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7553
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000003 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/CE, EUR/RUS, EUR/UMB, EUR/ERA AND EEB/ESC/ISC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2018 
TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL RU PL
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS FROM RUSSIA TO 
UKRAINE 
 
REF: A. SECSTATE 134475 
     ¶B. KYIV 2531 
     ¶C. BERLIN 1724 
 
Classified By: DCM Quanrud for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  Reporting from the Polish Embassy in Kyiv, 
conveyed to us by MFA's Economic Department, confirms reports 
from Embassy Berlin and Kyiv (Refs B and C) that the 
Ukrainians have found a way to pay gas debts to Gazprom and 
will avert a shutoff on January 1.  That said, Polish 
authorities are confident that through rerouting, tapping 
reserves, and ultimately limiting industrial usage, they 
could ride out a lengthy gas supply disruption from the 
Ukraine without affecting Poles' ability to heat their homes. 
 End Summary. 
 
Poles Hear Ukrainians Will Pay Debt to Gazprom 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2.  (C) MFA Energy Unit Chief Ryszard Vojter conveyed to 
EconOff January 31 reports from the Polish Embassy in Kyiv 
and the Polish state-owned oil and gas company (PGNiG) that 
the Ukrainians were prepared to pay the debt and there would 
be no disruption on January 1. (Note: PGNiG is about to begin 
their own negotiations with Gazprom to renew their multiyear 
contract which is set to expire in one year.) 
 
Poland Prepared to Weather the Storm 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (C)  EconCouns called separately on Maciej Wozniak, the 
Prime Minister's chief advisor on energy security policy, 
January 30 to discuss Polish preparations for a possible gas 
supply disruption from Russia to Ukraine, as well as Polish, 
EU, and U.S. diplomatic activity to avert a disruption. 
Wozniak appeared focused on internal preparations for a 
disruption.  Poland gas storage capacity is full.  Workers in 
Polish pipeline and internal gas distribution systems are on 
alert over the New Years holiday and are prepared to reroute 
gas in the event of lost volumes - which should arrive in 
Poland at 0800 local time (GMT  1), assuming a 0000 local 
shut-off at the Russian-Ukrainian border (GMT  2). 
¶4. (C) The GoP has requested that Gazprom and RosUkrEnergo 
reroute a portion of lost gas volumes through the Yamal 
pipeline via Belarus, which has spare capacity.  Wozniak 
believes Poland will be able to survive an interruption for 
five to seven days without affecting domestic gas service. 
Beyond that, the government would begin to reduce service 
incrementally to large industrial gas consumers, but in no 
case does it believe the crisis will affect basic heating or 
other critical services. 
 
¶5. (C) Wozniak was hungry for any information the USG could 
provide on the situation in Kyiv, though he took a somewhat 
fatalistic approach to the dispute between Moscow and Kyiv. 
When asked about Polish efforts in Kyiv to avoid a 
disruption, he shrugged and asked, "who do we talk to?" and 
suggested that external influence on the dynamic between 
Russia and Kyiv would be limited. 
 
¶6. (C) In a January 31 call, Maciej Kaliski, Director of the 
Economy Ministry's Oil and Gas Department, told Econoff that 
Minister of Economy (and Deputy Prime Minister) Pawlak had 
already called his counterpart, the Ukrainian Vice Premier 
and that Prime Minister Tusk planned to call his counterpart 
later today to urge resolution of the dispute without a 
shutoff.  However, Kaliski was confident regarding Poland's 
position.  Echoing Wozniak's statement that gas storage was 
full, he explained how this gave the Poles approximately 40 
days of supply without rationing or otherwise limiting usage. 
 With rerouting plans, Poland could get through the next 
three or four months before it would have to begin limiting 
supplies to industrial users.  No one, he said, expects a 
shutoff would last that long. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment.  All of our contacts expressed varying 
degrees of skepticism that Polish or other external 
entreaties to Kyiv would have a significant impact on the 
Kyiv-Moscow dispute.  They were largely focused on internal 
preparations to get through what they, at worst, expected 
would turn out to be a short duration interruption in supply. 
 
ASHE