VZCZCXRO8752
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0005/01 0021509
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 021509Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9852
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000005 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019 
TAGS: KWBG MOPS PREL PTER PINR EAID IS
SUBJECT: GAZA SITUATION REPORT, JANUARY 2, 15:00 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2930 
     ¶B. TEL AVIV 2922 
     ¶C. TEL AVIV 2906 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers for reasons 1.4 (B/D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Local and international media highlighted FM 
Livni,s January 1 comments in Paris that a ceasefire was 
unnecessary and would give Hamas time to regroup.  Israeli 
troops deployed around Gaza have relaxed their posture, but 
remain prepared for ground incursions.  Rocket and mortar 
strikes against southern Israeli towns have decreased, but 
Grad-type rockets continue to impact Be,er Sheva; no 
additional Israeli deaths were reported on January 1 or 2. 
Israeli Air Force (IAF) operations against Hamas targets 
continued on January 1 and 2, killing Nizar Rayan, reportedly 
one of the IDF's top targets and the first senior Hamas 
official killed in Operation Cast Lead, along with 15 members 
of his family, according to press reports.  The IAF also 
destroyed a mosque reportedly serving as a weapons depot and 
communications hub.  On the morning of January 2, Embassy Tel 
Aviv, Consulate-General Jerusalem and Embassy Amman 
facilitated the evacuation of 27 American citizens and their 
family members from Gaza. END SUMMARY. 
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 
¶2. (SBU) After meeting with French President Sarkozy in Paris 
on January 1, FM Livni reiterated the cabinet,s December 31 
decision to reject a 48-hour ceasefire, saying there was no 
humanitarian crisis in Gaza and therefore no need for a 
humanitarian ceasefire.  Sarkozy restated his intention to 
visit the region next week.  On January 1, France ceded the 
rotating EU presidency to the Czech Republic, which announced 
plans to dispatch a delegation to Jerusalem, Ramallah, Amman, 
and Cairo on January 4 in support of the French ceasefire 
proposal.  Turkish PM Erdogan,s diplomatic tour continued on 
January 1 with a stop in Cairo after meeting Syrian President 
Asad on December 31; he is expected to visit Riyadh on 
January 3.  Turkish DCM Bozay provided a readout of President 
Gul's January 1 conversation with President Peres.  Gul 
reportedly expressed understanding of Israel's need to take 
action against terrorist attacks, noting that Turkey was also 
a victim of terrorism, but cautioned Peres that the operation 
needed to be brought to a quick conclusion due to the impact 
on Muslim public opinion.  Peres responded that he hoped 
Israeli military operations could be completed soon, but said 
Hamas was not showing any sign of readiness to accept a 
ceasefire on terms acceptable to Israel.  Local reaction to 
the December 31 statement by Arab League FMs has been muted. 
¶3. (C) Neither the inner cabinet nor full security cabinet 
have convened since the December 31 meeting in which cabinet 
members agreed upon conditions for a ceasefire and ended 
press speculation of dissent by DM Barak; the next regular 
cabinet meeting will be on January 4.  While reportedly 
pushing for a major but brief ground incursion, Ha,aretz 
reports that defense officials recommend parallel preparation 
of a diplomatic exit strategy that would include an agreement 
brokered with Hamas; FM Livni remarked in Paris that a 
ceasefire negotiated directly with Hamas was unacceptable as 
it would legitimize the group,s hold over Gaza. 
¶4. (U) Polling results in advance of Knesset elections still 
scheduled for February 10 continue to show gains for DM 
Barak,s Labor Party, with unclear results for FM Livni,s 
Kadima Party and former PM Netanyahu,s Likud Party.  Media 
commentators agree that Barak has the most to gain from the 
Gaza operation, though much depends upon its outcome.  A 
Ma,ariv-Teleseeker poll published January 2 shows the Labor 
Party earning 16 Knesset seats if elections were held today 
(up from 11 on December 25), while Likud and Kadima would 
each take 28 (down from 29 for Likud and 30 for Kadima).  The 
same poll showed public support for the ongoing operations 
against Hamas at 93 percent, with 40 percent favoring 
continued air attacks only, 41 percent in favor of a ground 
incursion, and nine percent advocating an immediate 
ceasefire.  77 percent of the public believes Israel should 
only accept a ceasefire if it includes negotiations for the 
release of Gilad Shalit.  (Note:  The Ma,ariv-Teleseeker 
poll showed significantly stronger support for ongoing 
operations in Gaza than a January 1 Ha,aretz poll that 
included Israeli Arabs, though their influence on government 
decision making is minimal, leading us to believe they were 
excluded from the Ma,ariv poll.)   The Likud Party has put 
up billboards all over Tel Aviv with the slogan "strong 
together" and in smaller print, "Likud supports our soldiers 
and the residents of the south."  In keeping with Bibi 
Netanyahu's pledge to suspend his electoral campaign during 
the fighting, the billboards do not refer to Netanyahu 
directly. 
MILITARY OPERATIONS 
¶5. (S) The Israeli Defense Forces, (IDF) ground buildup 
appears to have slowed after the initial influx of armor and 
infantry to the Gaza perimeter.  Elements of at least three 
armor and four infantry brigades remain deployed along the 
 
TEL AVIV 00000005  002 OF 002 
 
 
northern Gaza strip.  DAO reports no indications of an 
imminent ground incursion.  IDF maintenance and logistical 
activity continued on January 2, but IDF troops displayed a 
more relaxed posture than on January 1.  DAO assesses that 
the IDF has not yet deployed sufficient forces for a deep, 
sustained ground operation, but that more limited incursions 
into northern Gaza could occur with little or no warning. 
¶6. (SBU) Despite cleared skies over Gaza, the pace of Israeli 
Air Force (IAF) operations has decreased, with 48 sorties on 
January 1, according to the IDF.  Media reports speculate 
that the IAF is running out of quality targets and may soon 
be forced to either scale back operations or turn the 
fighting over to ground forces.  IAF operations on January 1 
included a strike that killed senior Hamas official Nizar 
Rayan in his Jabaliya home, reportedly along with his four 
wives and 11 of his children.  Rayan was reportedly on the 
IDF's list of top Hamas targets, and was the first senior 
Hamas political official killed in Operation Cast Lead.  IAF 
jets also bombed a mosque in the Jabaliya area that, 
according to IDF sources, served as a command and control hub 
for Hamas militants and storage site for Grad-type and Qassam 
rockets.  As of 12:00 on January 2, the IAF had carried out 
an additional 20 strikes, mostly targeting the homes of Hamas 
militants; IDF sources stress that residents received prior 
warnings to evacuate by leaflet, phone, or text message, 
although one prominent commentator quoted military sources as 
saying that at least in the Rayan attack, no one answered the 
phone when it rang 10 minutes prior to the attack. 
¶7. (SBU) IDF sources report that 35 rockets, including 10 
Grad-type, and four mortar rounds were fired into Israel on 
January 1, with several rockets striking in or around Be,er 
Sheva, with no deaths or injuries.  As of 15:00 on January 2 
approximately 20 additional rockets had been launched from 
Gaza, impacting Ashkelon, Sdot Negev, and Eshkol; one woman 
was reported injured by shrapnel.  Israeli towns and cities 
within 40km of Gaza remain under special alert, expanded from 
30km after rockets began striking Be,er Sheva on December 
¶31.  Schools remain closed, and residents have been asked to 
stay in or near shelters. 
AMCIT EVACUATION 
¶8. (SBU) On the morning of January 2 Embassy Tel Aviv, 
Consulate-General Jerusalem, and Embassy Amman coordinated 
the evacuation of 27 American citizens (Amcits) and non-Amcit 
family members from Gaza via the Erez crossing; an additional 
seven Amcits on the initial evacuation list chose to remain 
in Gaza.  As of 14:00 the 27 evacuees were proceeding through 
the Allenby border crossing from Israel into Jordan after 
transiting Israel under embassy escort.  A total of 234 third 
country nationals were evacuated through Erez during the day. 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
¶9. (SBU) The Office for Coordination of Government Activities 
in the Territories (COGAT) announced that 60 trucks carrying 
1,360 tons of humanitarian supplies entered Gaza from Israel 
via the Kerem Shalom crossing on January 1, including 10 UN 
Relief and Works Agency trucks with cooking oil and seven 
with flour, three trucks with medical supplies from Egypt, 
seven trucks with food from Jordan, and two International 
Committee of the Red Cross trucks carrying medical supplies. 
64 trucks entered Gaza on January 2, according to COGAT (of 
72 that were initially expected).  According to USAID, the 
Kerem Shalom crossing remained open as of 15:00 on January 2, 
while the Rafah crossing into Egypt opened only briefly for 
the evacuation of 17 wounded Palestinians and entry of six 
Egyptian trucks carrying medical supplies.  The Karni grain 
conveyor and Nahal Oz fuel pipeline remained closed on 
January 1 and 2. 
¶10. (SBU) Turkish DCM Bozay told us today that Turkey had 
completed the coordination with COGAT of substantial Turkish 
humanitarian assistance, including five ambulances, 330 tons 
of flour, 11,000 dried food parcels (11 tons), and 13 tons of 
medical supplies, all of which has now entered Gaza.  Bozay 
said he received full cooperation from Israeli officials, 
including clearance of the ambulances through the Ashdod port 
within two days.  Based on the success of these shipments, 
the Turks reportedly are planning additional humanitarian 
relief, including a number of small generators for Gaza's 
hospital. 
 
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CUNNINGHAM