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UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000003 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB SOCI ECON CI
SUBJECT:  CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE:  PINERA STILL LEADING, FREI 
GAINS, INSULZA LOSES GROUND IN LATEST POLLS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The latest poll on possible presidential 
candidates shows that former president Eduardo Frei is very 
competitive with OAS SecGen Jose Miguel Insulza to receive the nod 
as the Concertacion candidate.  But both trail opposition leader 
Sebastian Pinera by a sizeable margin, although Frei has 
substantially narrowed this lead.  Insulza continues to appear 
indecisive about a potential presidential run and has lost ground in 
hypothetical match-ups against Pinera; some are calling for him to 
officially withdraw from the race.  The timing of the poll--which 
was largely conducted before Concertacion leader and former 
president Ricardo Lagos withdrew from the race--raises some doubt on 
the currency of the results.  End Summary. 
 
Frei Advances, Insulza Flounders; Pinera Leads the Field 
------------- ------------------------- ---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) In the Center for Public Studies (CEP) much anticipated poll 
on Chile's presidential candidates, RN candidate and former Senator 
Sebastian Pinera came out as the clear front-runner over both DC 
candidate former President Eduardo Frei and potential Socialist 
candidate OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza.  However, 
Frei's position in a face-off against Pinera has improved, while 
Insulza has grown weaker since the last CEP poll in June/July 2008. 
 
-- Forty-four percent of registered voters questioned in the poll 
chose Pinera as their presidential pick in a hypothetical final 
run-off against Frei, who was supported by 34 percent of those 
polled.  This 10 point lead tightens the 15 point difference from 
the last poll, taken in June/July.  In a run-off between Pinera and 
Insulza, Pinera's 21 point lead (49 percent for Pinera vs. 28 
percent for Insulza) is a substantial 7 point increase since the 
previous poll. 
 
-- Poll participants rated the candidates based on the question, "Is 
this candidate prepared to be the President of Chile?" with 62 
percent of voters declaring that Pinera was ready, compared to 58 
percent for Lagos, 56 percent for Frei, and 38 percent for Insulza. 
Pinera leads when judged on attributes such as ability to solve 
problems, trustworthiness, ability to unite the country, and 
self-confidence.  However, when judged on sincerity Pinera falls 
behind Frei who ranks above Insulza on all of these attributes. 
 
-- When asked "Who should be the next President of Chile?" 32 
percent of registered voters questioned named Pinera, 14 percent 
Lagos, 7 percent Insulza, and 7 percent Frei.  Compared to poll 
results from June/July, there was little movement except that Frei 
jumped significantly, from 3 to 7 percent. 
 
Winners of Possible Concertacion Primary 
------------------ --------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Thirty-seven percent of registered voters questioned about a 
Concertacion primary would support Frei, placing him nine points 
ahead of Insulza.  However, when evaluating responses by only 
self-identified Concertacionistas, Insulza and Frei are in a 
statistical dead heat (43 percent for Insulza vs. 42 percent for 
Frei). 
 
The Big Asterisk on the Poll:  The Lagos Factor 
------------------------ ---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Ricardo Lagos' withdrawal from the presidential race during 
the CEP polling creates some doubt about the significance of the 
poll results--particularly given Lagos' strong showing.  CEP 
conducted the survey between November 19 and December 11, completing 
82 percent of the polling before former President Ricardo Lagos 
announced his departure from the race on December 4.  Frei was not 
chosen as the official DC party candidate until December 13, after 
CEP finished polling.  Former Foreign Minister and Insulza supporter 
Juan Gabriel Valdes publicly criticized CEP for continuing with the 
poll after Lagos' departure. 
 
¶5.  (U) Lagos' departure from the presidential race is particularly 
significant given that he was the Concertacion leader in many key 
poll metrics.  When asked about a possible Concertacion primary 
among Lagos, Frei, Insulza, Soledad Alvear, and current president 
Bachelet, a plurality--23 percent--supported Lagos.  It is unclear 
who these Lagos supporters would back now that their preferred 
candidate is no longer running, although the majority of 
commentators suggest they would more likely back Insulza who is 
ideologically closer to Lagos.  In addition, Lagos actually had the 
best performance in a match up against Pinera--trailing the Alianza 
candidate by 8 percentage points (44 for Pinera vs. 36 for Lagos) 
 
vs. 10 points for Frei (44 to 34) and 21 for Insulza (49 to 28). 
 
Conservative Analyst:  Insulza's Hopes are "Buried" 
----------------------- --------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Axel Buchheister, analyst with the conservative think tank 
Libertad y Desarollo, told Poloff December 31 that Insulza's 
political hopes are "buried" after the release of the poll results, 
and that he believes Insulza may announce his withdrawal from the 
race in the coming days.  Buchheister suggested that Insulza's 
support dropped in several key metrics--including voter views of 
Insulza's strengths in particular areas, and an increase (to 54 
percent) of the number of people who would "never" vote for him--in 
part due to his indecision about his presidential candidacy.  UDI 
Deputy (and former SecGen of the party) Dario Paya phoned E/Pol 
Counselor the day before the poll was released to say that all 
signals he was receiving pointed to Frei being the Concertacion 
candidate. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) While some may say that Pinera is stagnating, Buchheister 
claims instead that he is solidifying his support.  He believes that 
UDI president Juan Antonio Coloma's observation that Alianza now has 
the best chance in its history to win the presidency is truer than 
ever.  The electorate is yearning for change and a capacity to deal 
with the financial crisis.  In this environment, Buchheister 
asserted, the successful tycoon will triumph over Eduardo Frei, who 
as president presided over Chile's economic struggles during the 
Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 2000. 
 
Liberal Analyst:  Frei is Growing Stronger 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Frei is showing a "slow but persistent increase in 
support," according to Maria de los Angeles Fernandez, director of 
the Socialist party-affiliated Chile 21 think tank.  In a 
conversation with Poloff December 31, Fernandez said she was 
impressed by Frei and puzzled by Insulza's drop.  She noted that the 
poll results were less significant given that they were conducted 
before Ricardo Lagos dropped out, but that they nonetheless showed 
that a large number of Chileans could support Frei in the next 
election. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Insulza's indecision is not helping his electoral chances, 
and he would be wise to make a final decision about his candidacy 
now.  Press over the last two days has focused increasingly on a 
Pinera-Frei match, with both men tossing barbs at each other, as if 
Insulza were no longer a factor.  And while Insulza clearly trails 
in a match up with Pinera, his more immediate concern should be that 
he is now in a statistical dead heat with Frei for support during a 
hypothetical Concertacion primary.  Insulza faces an uphill battle 
if he wishes to run for office, and his goal will only become 
further away the longer his intentions are unclear.  END COMMENT.