O 021324Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6853
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000005 
 
 
PLEASE PASS TO AF A/S FRAZER, AF/FO BANKS, AND AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018 
TAGS: PREL ASEC PGOV EAID SF ZI
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA: A/S FRAZER'S CONSULTATIONS ON 
ZIMBABWE: PROSPECTS FOR CHANGE 
 
REF: A. 08 PRETORIA 2716 
     ¶B. 08 PRETORIA 2134 
     ¶C. 08 HARARE 1127 
     ¶D. 08 HARARE 1131 
     ¶E. 08 HARARE 1136 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Eric M. Bost for reasons 1.4 b 
and d. 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary: Visiting Assistant Secretary of State for 
African Affairs Jendayi E. Frazer reached out to South 
African and regional leaders to outline U.S. policy on 
Zimbabwe and explain why the U.S. no longer believes 
President Robert Mugabe can be part of a power sharing 
solution to Zimbabwe's crisis.  Meeting with South African 
President Kgalema Motlanthe and South African Development 
Community (SADC) facilitator Sydney Mufumadi, Frazer pressed 
for active South African leadership.  African National 
Congress (ANC) insider Tokyo Sexwale insisted that party 
support for Mbeki as SADC facilitator has waned, a position 
ANC President Zuma later confirmed.  Opposition Congress of 
the People (COPE) leader Mosioua Lekota claimed to be among 
the first to speak out against Mugabe's excesses.  South 
African-based Zimbabwean businessman Strive Masiywa and 
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary-General Tendai 
Biti outlined the MDC action plan. End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Moving Zimbabwe to Pretoria's Outbox 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Meeting with Frazer December 18, former Minister 
Sydney Mufumadi discussed the recent efforts of the SADC 
Zimbabwe facilitation team led by former President Thabo 
Mbeki, which includes Mufumadi, Presidential Advisor Frank 
Chikane, and former Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor 
Mojanku Gumbi.  Mufumadi expressed the view that the MDC 
failed to show proper respect for SADC as the regional 
decision-making body when it refused SADC's most recent offer 
involving shared control between the MDC and ZANU-PF of Home 
Affairs.  Frazer stressed South Africa's dominance in SADC as 
an imperative to lead.  She called on the South African SADC 
facilitators to push for Mugabe's resignation in favor of his 
vice president, who would represent ZANU-PF in a 
power-sharing government. 
 
¶3. (C) Meeting with Frazer on December 20, President Kgalema 
Motlanthe hailed ZANU-PF's decision to gazette Amendment 19, 
establishing the framework for a power-sharing government, as 
a clear sign of progress.  Motlanthe expressed confidence to 
Frazer that with a quick vote on Article 19 and the immediate 
inauguration of MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai as Prime 
Minister, the crisis in Zimbabwe will be well on the way 
toward resolution. Motlanthe expressed the view that the 
quick formation of a unity government, with Mugabe remaining 
a president, is the most efficient way forward, and he is not 
convinced that Mugabe has discredited himself as a partner in 
negotiations. 
 
-------------------------- 
MDC Backers: Mbeki Must Go 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) South Africa-based Zimbabwean businessman Strive 
Masiywa told A/S Frazer on December 18 that the MDC will not 
take part in further negotiation as long as former President 
Mbeki remains in charge of SADC facilitation. Masiywa also 
complained that Motlanthe is sympathetic to Mbeki and does 
not want to disrupt the ANC by removing Mbeki as SADC 
facilitator.  He added that Tsvangirai had appealed directly 
to Motlanthe to remove the Mbeki team, which the MDC 
considers friendly to ZANU-PF, and that Motlanthe refused. 
Qconsiders friendly to ZANU-PF, and that Motlanthe refused. 
Masiywa said the South Africans are not committed to a 
negotiated resolution to the crisis but merely want to stage 
the inauguration of Tsvangirai as prime minister as a media 
event they can use to declare, prematurely, that they have 
solved the Zimbabwe political crisis.  Masiywa said MDC 
president Morgan Tsvangirai had expected more support than he 
has received from the UN and the AU and has, consequently, 
decided to focus his energy on cementing the MDC's 
relationships with friendly governments, including Botswana, 
Tanzania, Senegal, and Kenya to build a pro-MDC consensus in 
the AU.  Frazer urged that Tsvangirai either return to 
Zimbabwe as soon as possible or seek alternatives to 
demonstrate leadership and mobilize MDC supporters. 
 
¶5. (C) Long-time ANC insider Tokyo Sexwale, meeting with A/S 
Frazer on December 20, highlighted a recent radio interview 
with ANC President Jacob Zuma in which Zuma said, "Mugabe is 
no longer my comrade," as a breakthrough, signifying that the 
liberation struggle-era bond between the ZANU-PF and the ANC 
is unraveling.  Sexwale said he had just come from an ANC 
National Executive Committee meeting wherein the ruling party 
had agreed to step up efforts to resolve the crisis in 
Zimbabwe.  Sexwale commented that Motlanthe is "too close" to 
Mbeki and like Mbeki was inclined to soft-pedal SADC 
facilitation.  Sexwale said he planned to call for the 
removal of Mbeki as facilitator, but added that removing the 
former president in a manner that preserved his dignity was 
tricky.  Sexwale also noted that Motlanthe, to his credit, 
had publicly refuted Mugabe's allegations that MDC is 
training troops in Botswana.  In response to Frazer's call 
for tougher action on the part of South Africa, Sexwale 
observed that it is very difficult to know when the time is 
right to close pipelines and cut electrical transmission 
lines.  He commented that South Africans are very uneasy 
about "pulling out the tablecloth" from under their 
Zimbabwean neighbors. Frazer called on Sexwale to focus on 
urging Mugabe to step down as the first step toward resolving 
the crisis. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Parties Gingerly Approach Zimbabwe Issue 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Opposition Congress of the People (COPE) leader 
Mosioua Lekota, meeting with Ambassador Bost and A/S Frazer 
on December 20, attempted to put the Zimbabwe crisis in 
historical context. Lekota said that the coming of democracy 
to South Africa in 1994 was not good news for Mugabe, who had 
previously been celebrated as Africa's foremost liberation 
hero.  Lekota claimed that he had been among the first to 
speak out when Mugabe confiscated white-owned farms. 
Comparing ZANU-PF's politicization of ministries in Zimbabwe 
to what the ANC has done within the South African civil 
service, Lekota agreed with Frazer that asking the MDC to 
share the Ministry of Home Affairs with ZANU-PF, in the 
absence of a comprehensive power-sharing arrangement, does 
not make sense.  (Note: In discussing COPE's domestic agenda, 
including its fight with the ANC over the party name, and its 
plans for 2009 elections, Lekota said that COPE was 
considering naming its headquarters OR Tambo House, a choice 
guaranteed to provoke an ANC outcry.  End note). 
 
¶7. (C) In a December 21 telephone call with Zuma, A/S Frazer 
thanked Zuma for the invitation to the gala December 20 
wedding of his and FM Dhlamini-Zuma's daughter and commended 
him for his radio comments indicating that Mugabe is no 
longer his comrade.  Zuma mentioned his conversations during 
the previous week with Secretary Rice and Frazer on Zimbabwe 
and indicated that he would welcome the opportunity to talk 
with Frazer again on Zimbabwe in the coming weeks. (Note: 
Zuma and Frazer did not have an opportunity to speak at the 
wedding.  End note). 
 
-------------------------------- 
MDC's Portrait of a Failed State 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Meeting with A/S Frazer on December 21, Tendai Biti 
said Zimbabwe is a failed state whose people are suffering 
from diseases not seen since the early 1900s, whose 
government has lost control of an increasingly dollarized 
Qgovernment has lost control of an increasingly dollarized 
economy, and whose military is disintegrating into corporate 
factions vying for control of resources.  Biti claimed that 
the deterioration of Zimbabwe is accelerating, adding that 
the increasingly frequent abduction of MDC activists was 
unknown four-to-five months ago.  Biti said that the state is 
operating in an extra-legal manner and that dialogue is dead. 
 Biti said the sense of ZANU-PF entitlement is overwhelming, 
adding that ZANU-PF knows it needs MDC in the government in 
order to get out from under sanctions, but does not even go 
through the motions of courting MDC -- as evidenced by the 
government's refusal to issue a passport to MDC leader Morgan 
Tsvangirai. 
 
¶9. (C) Biti expressed gratitude for the tightening of U.S. 
sanctions on Zimbabwe.  He told Frazer that the Mbeki-led 
power-sharing effort was dead, but neither party wants to 
admit it officially.  Biti and  Frazer discussed the 
possibility of passing a binding UN Security Council 
Resolution on Zimbabwe once South Africa relinquishes its 
seat at the end of 2008.  He added that the MDC is planning a 
program of grassroots engagement, along with greater 
strategic use of MDC's power in the parliament to focus 
greater attention on the crisis. 
 
 
10: (C) Asked about the value of the Mbeki-led facilitation 
efforts, Biti praised the South African technical team that 
negotiated Article Nineteen, but he pronounced the current 
power-sharing deal dead.  He charged that the South Africans, 
having negotiated most of the details of the constitutional 
change, did not even bother to consult MDC to finalize 
provisions that remained in dispute but instead rushed to 
have the document gazetted without informing MDC.  He 
described South African President Motlanthe's eagerness to 
seal the deal and inaugurate Tsvangirai as Prime Minister to 
"performing a heart transplant on a dead person."  Biti said 
that on September 15, the MDC might have given Mugabe the 
benefit of the doubt and tried power-sharing but now a deal 
is impossible. 
 
¶11. (C) On the possibility of power-sharing with ZANU in the 
event that Mugabe does step down, Biti said that "whoever 
steps into Mugabe's shoes would be better."  A/S Frazer noted 
that Zuma said Mugabe is no longer his comrade.  To that, 
Biti remarked that if Zuma would say what Botswana's 
President Khama is saying, there would be no need for a 
blockade to persuade Mugabe to step down. Frazer's phone call 
with MDC President Tsvangirai focused on MDC plans for 
grassroots action and Tsvangirai's own plans to return to 
Zimbabwe. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) A/S Frazer's press roundtable on December 21 drew 
headline coverage from local and international media, capping 
meetings with South Africa's key political leaders. A/S 
Frazer's high-profile visit helped energize our engagement on 
Zimbabwe.  The Mission will attempt to keep up the pace of 
our dialogue.  End comment. 
 
BOST