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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000090 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019 
TAGS: PGOV ECON ASEC CONS BL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ "NO" CAMPAIGN WORKING FOR EVERY VOTE 
 
Classified By: Acting ECOPOL Chief Joe Relk for reason 1.4 (b) 
 
¶1. (C) With less than a week before the January 25 
constitutional referendum, both the pro-government "Yes" and 
the anti-government "No" campaigns have stepped up efforts in 
Santa Cruz Department (state).  Pro-government Movement 
Toward Socialism (MAS) forces have a higher campaign budget 
in Santa Cruz, as evidenced by a heavy advantage in the 
number of billboards and media propaganda.  On the other 
hand, the "No" campaigners have a lot more enthusiasm and 
support in this pro-opposition bastion.  Every statue in 
Santa Cruz is dressed in the rainbow-colored "No" stickers 
that dancing, drum-beating youth (on vacation from 
universities and schools until February) hand out on 
seemingly every corner of the capital.  Vice President Garcia 
Linera visited the heavily MAS-aligned town of "El Torno" 30 
kilometers outside Santa Cruz on January 14 to hand out land 
titles to settlers (most of whom come from rural areas of 
Cochabamba Department).  However, he and other government 
ministers have not ventured out of "safe" pro-MAS zones 
during their campaign.  President Morales caused uproar in 
Santa Cruz when he recently "inaugurated" an unfinished 
bridge on the major route to Brazil.  The bridge was largely 
funded by a Korean donation, with significant department 
funds.  The Santa Cruz media widely criticized Morales for 
his bravado in claiming credit for a bridge that was funded 
by Korean and departmental funds, consists of struts and no 
actual road, and probably won't be passable for a year. 
 
Civic Committee SecGen's Department by Department Analysis 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Civic committee officials and Prefect (governor) Ruben 
Costas are actively campaigning with daily events throughout 
Santa Cruz Department (state).  Civic Committee General 
Secretary Mario Bruno told American Presence Officer that 
polls show an overwhelming victory for the "No" vote in Santa 
Cruz, but that he is worried about the opposition's goal of 
winning in five of Bolivia's nine departments.  He said 
Tarija is a solid "No," and he was pleased by recent gains in 
Chuquisaca, for which Prefect Savina Cuellar, an opposition 
convert from the ruling Movement Toward Socialism party, 
could claim much credit.  The campaign in Beni, however, got 
off to a late start and was not very robust, according to 
Bruno.  His largest concern was Pando Department due to its 
small, 34,000 voter roll.  Bruno said Pando would vote in 
favor of referendum with many opposition leaders remaining in 
Brazil to avoid arrest and the likely "Yes" votes from large 
numbers of military and police sent to keep the peace after 
the violent September 11 conflict.  Bruno further said that 
although the Santa Cruz civic committee was meeting with 
international observers, they had little faith in those 
observers.  Bruno predicted fraud would be minimal in urban 
areas where the observers would be located, but that fraud in 
pro-MAS rural areas would be almost impossible to detect and 
could skew the margin of victory.  Bruno, prefecture 
officials, and the general public are all skeptical of the 
large number of "undecideds" in recent polls.  They believe 
most people have made up their minds by now, and the 
"undecideds" really reflect an unwillingness to respond to 
pollsters in such a politically-charged atmosphere. 
 
Land Referendum's High Profile in Santa Cruz 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Though overshadowed by the constitutional question, 
of particular concern to the Santa Cruz agricultural 
community is a separate land-delimitation referendum also to 
be decided January 25.  Voters will choose to limit land 
ownership to 5,000 or 10,000 hectares.  President of the 
Santa Cruz Rancher's Association Guido Nayar urged voters to 
boycott the vote as a rejection of referendum's premise.  He 
explained that in areas such as the Bolivian Chaco, cattle 
requires much more land than the government's base 
calculation, making redistribution proposals inherently 
unfair. 
Santa Cruz Opposition Focuses on Peaceful Dissent 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (SBU) While conventional wisdom supports a Morales win for 
the constitution, the margin of victory will influence how it 
is interpreted in implementing legislation and how fast it is 
implemented.  Therefore, Santa Cruz opposition leaders will 
continue working hard for every vote.  Most of the leaders 
EmbOff spoke with seem determined not to see a repeat of the 
violent acts of September 2008, now largely viewed as 
disastrous.  As one prefecture insider said, "We lost more 
(the moral high ground) than we ever could have hoped to gain 
by taking over government institutions through force.  We 
learned our lesson.  From now on we will use only peaceful 
forms of resistance.  We cannot overpower the MAS by using 
violent tactics.  ...  That is their forte, not ours." 
URS