VZCZCXRO0823
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #0045/01 0201648
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201648Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7199
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KINGSTON 000045 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX)(VDEPIRRO)(WSMITH) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) 
EEB/IFD/OMA 
EEB/EPPD 
 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON TRYS ENRG EFIN EINV ETRD EAIR SOCI IBRD IMF
CDB, IBD, CH, SP, XL, JM 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL REPORTING ON 
     RESPONSE TO FINANCIAL CRISIS 
 
REF: A) 08 STATE 134459 
B) 08 KINGSTON 1058 (151615Z DEC 08) 
C) 08 KINGSTON 1094 (221925z DEC 08) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The global financial crisis has begun to impact Jamaica, 
with economic growth for July to September 2008 falling by 0.2 
percent -- the second consecutive quarter of decline.  Continued 
stagnation in the real sectors was again responsible for the 
downturn.  The economy is bound to fall deeper into recession 
following the shock emanating from the recent hike in interest rates 
to protect the value of the local currency.  This reality has 
spurred the government into action; both Finance Minister Audley 
Shaw and Prime Minister Bruce Golding have been forced to address 
the nation, with the latter outlining a sleuth of measures intended 
to offset the downturn.  But these policy actions have not been 
sufficient to calm the markets or slow down the plans by companies 
to cut staff as demand slows and credit dries up.  However, the 
early decision of the Golding-led administration to re-engage the 
multilaterals could well turn out to be Jamaica's silver lining. 
End summary. 
 
Economic Stagnation Intensifies 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Jamaica's economy declined by a further 0.3 percent in the 
September quarter of 2008, the second consecutive quarter of 
contraction.  The stagnation in the real sector (down 2.2 percent) 
was the underlying reason for the economic downturn, with the 9.1 
percent drop in the construction sector influencing the fallout. 
The slowdown in road construction and housing starts and completions 
were the primary reasons for the downturn.  This development is 
expected to deliver a serious blow to the buoyant real estate 
market.  The apparent meltdown in the construction industry is also 
disconcerting given that it had been growing by double digits until 
the end of 2007 and had employed up to 118,000 persons, many of them 
unskilled.  Agriculture, down 1.0 percent, also contributed to the 
decline recorded in the real economy.  Growth in services, up 0.5 
percent, remained anemic as the previously buoyant tourism and 
retail sectors went into decline. 
 
 
Dollar under Sustained Pressure 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) While most countries around the world have been reducing 
interest rates, Jamaica has been forced to increase rates five times 
in a bid to stabilize the local currency, which has slipped by over 
13 percent since September 2008.  In December, the Bank of Jamaica 
(BOJ) hiked indicative interest rates on its one-year instrument by 
seven percentage points to 24 percent.  This pre-emptive move was 
aimed at absorbing maturing instruments to reduce liquidity and by 
extension calm demand pressures in the foreign exchange market.  The 
BOJ also enacted a second increase in the cash reserve requirement, 
from nine percent to 11 percent.  But these measures are bound to 
impact the fiscal accounts, investment decisions, and economic 
growth.  They also have impacted consumer credit, as financial 
houses have already increased rates by up to four percentage points 
to 30 percent.  The Private Sector Organization of Jamaica has 
questioned the bank's wisdom, saying the aggressive measures would 
likely put more pressure on an already weak economy at a time when 
the global crisis is placing severe pressure on Jamaica.  However, 
the BOJ faces a real dilemma, as the currency continues to lose 
value against its US counterpart amidst a USD 400 million injection 
in the market from the Net International Reserves (NIR), which now 
stand at USD 1.8 billion. 
 
Leading Foreign Exchange Sectors under Siege 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) With over 70 percent of visitors to Jamaica originating 
from the US, the tourism sector appears to be most vulnerable to the 
global financial crisis.  However, the performance for 2008 was four 
percent better than in 2007.  Predictions are that arrivals could 
decline by up to 20 percent in 2009 unless the fast growing Canadian 
market offsets the anticipated decline from the U.S.  The 
bauxite/alumina sector is also being affected by the fallout in the 
automobile and housing industries in the U.S.  The price of aluminum 
 
KINGSTON 00000045  002 OF 004 
 
 
has decreased by over 50 percent during the last six months, leading 
to inventory reaching its highest level in the last 14 years. 
Remittances from the U.S. also fell by double digits in November, 
the first monthly decline registered in recent times, suggesting 
that even this most resilient flow could be affected by the 
deepening recession in the U.S.; however, remittances to Jamaica are 
expected to remain relatively robust given the historically steady 
nature of the flow. 
 
Projects Postponed 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The global financial crisis also has begun to take its toll 
on investment decisions in Jamaica.  Already, one major Spanish 
investor has postponed a major hotel development due to difficulties 
associated with sourcing funding on the international capital 
market.  The Port Authority of Jamaica also was forced to postpone 
its USD 122 million port expansion project slated to start in 2009, 
as it cannot find financing.  The divestment of the local sugar 
industry to Infiniti Bio-energy of Brazil also has hit a snag 
because of uncertainty surrounding the companies' ability to raise 
the USD 125 million required to seal the deal.  However, Ministry of 
Finance officials tell emboffs that a similar fate should not beset 
Air Jamaica, as the company already has short listed two prospective 
buyers with deep pockets, while two other similar entities are 
showing interest. 
 
Shaw Forced to Address Crisis 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) After months of suggesting that the global financial 
turmoil would not affect the local economy, Minister of Finance and 
the Public Sector (MOF) Audley Shaw was forced to backtrack in an 
address to the nation in November.  Shaw stated that, as with most 
developing countries, credit to Jamaica had dried up as investors 
had become increasingly risk averse.  He said the local foreign 
exchange market also had experienced pressures arising from the 
temporary constraint on international credit markets and the 
consequent price declines in financial assets internationally. 
However, Shaw has remained optimistic, particularly because an 
assessment of local financial institutions showed that the level of 
exposure was manageable, and in the event of contagion, the central 
bank was in a position to provide liquidity support.  He also noted 
that the GOJ had established a Monitoring Unit comprising 
technocrats from the MOF, the BOJ, the Financial Services 
Commission, and the Planning Institute of Jamaica to analyze 
developments in the global markets with a view to determining the 
impact on Jamaica. 
 
Policy Responses 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Shaw told emboffs that long before the crisis, the 
Golding-led administration had indicated its intention to re-engage 
and significantly expand its relationship with the multilateral 
lending agencies.  This early intention has paid huge dividends, as 
Shaw expects these agencies to provide over USD 1 billion by the end 
of March.  He said these projected inflows will help cushion any 
fall-out faced by the island from the global credit crisis.  The sum 
includes USD 200 million from the IDB for on-lending to the private 
sector; USD 300 million already secured from the IDB; two loans for 
USD 401 million being negotiated with the IDB; USD 100 million being 
negotiated with the World Bank; and, USD 50 million for which 
negotiations are being finalized with the CDB.  These are mostly 
policy-based loans (PBL), in exchange for which the government will 
have to undertake agreed policy changes primarily geared at lowering 
the country's gargantuan debt burden.  For the next fiscal year the 
GOJ also expects to secure a further combined USD 650 million in PBL 
from the World Bank, the IDB and the CDB. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite the crisis, the GOJ also has intensified its reform 
program aimed at achieving fiscal sustainability and debt reduction. 
 The program entails, among other things, fiscal sustainability 
through greater control of public sector balances and debt; 
increasing the efficiency of government's financial management and 
budget process; improvement in tax policy and administration geared 
toward a more simplified, equitable and efficient tax system; and, 
improvement in public sector productivity, efficiency and 
responsiveness. The GOJ also has been engaged in intense discussions 
with bauxite/alumina companies and unions to avoid the closure of 
 
KINGSTON 00000045  003 OF 004 
 
 
any plants, which would result in layoffs.  The GOJ is still in 
discussions with US Rusal regarding its three plants in Jamaica, 
while the other two companies are not critical at this moment. The 
government also has offered concessions to these companies, but has 
warned that they might not be able to avoid a cutback in production. 
 Regarding tourism, the Jamaica Tourist Board has ramped up its 
advertising and marketing program in the US.  To address the labor 
market challenges, the GOJ announced the revival of social 
partnership discussions among the government, the private sector, 
trade unions, and the opposition.  The GOJ also is planning to 
appoint a group of union leaders and employers to track the effects 
of the global financial crisis in a bid to report to the GOJ on ways 
to prevent layoffs. 
 
Golding Announces Stimulus Package 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) With the effects of the global crisis intensifying, Prime 
Minister Bruce Golding also has been forced to yield to those who 
had been calling for a more targeted fiscal stimulus package.  In an 
address to the nation in December, Golding in outlined a sleuth of 
measures intended to boost the economy in general and some critical 
sectors in particular.  As such, the tourism sector had its sales 
tax (already half that paid by the remainder of the economy) reduced 
by half to 4.125 %.  Sector players facing cash flow problems also 
were offered a USD 6 million loan facility for working capital.  The 
moribund manufacturing sector also came in for special treatment, as 
Golding announced that government procurement policy would be 
adjusted to provide a 10 percent cost margin to Jamaican owned 
companies.  Small businesses were also allocated over USD 4 million 
in soft loans, while the procurement procedures were adjusted to 
allow 15 percent of total procurement to be reserved for small and 
micro suppliers.  And despite the revenue crunch, the GOJ abolished 
the tax on dividends paid by private locally owned companies, while 
reducing the transfer tax on property transactions from 6.5 percent 
to five percent.  To help with job losses, Golding also proposed a 
special program to retrain workers who were laid off. 
 
Projects to Provide Boost 
------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Golding was also quick to point out that a number of 
projects were in the pipeline, which could boost job creation and 
economic growth.  Chief among these is the construction of a cruise 
ship pier in the historic town of Falmouth on the North Coast to 
accommodate the next generation of cruise ships.  The project, which 
is being carried out in conjunction with Caribbean Cruise Lines, 
will cost over USD 224 million.  The long awaited construction of a 
Convention Centre in the tourist resort of Montego-Bay will also 
begin this quarter.  The project is being financed by the Chinese 
government to the tune of USD 52 million.  A group of Chinese 
investors are also far advanced in their plans to construct a new 
alumina plant in St. Ann.  And while some hotel developers have had 
to postpone their investments, one major Spanish hotel has commenced 
construction, while two others are about to start work.  Golding 
also alluded to the ongoing and planned construction of major 
highways and the development of almost 500 acres of land for an 
enterprise zone. 
 
But Recession Bug Hits Companies 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) But despite Golding's optimism, there have been a number 
of announced job cuts.  In December Sandals Resorts International 
announced it was reducing staff complement by 285 employees. 
However, most were re-employed and transferred to join another 300 
Jamaican workers in the Turks and Caicos.  Russian-owned (RUSAL) 
Alumina Partners of Jamaica also has laid off 250 temporary workers 
and suggested a delay of a 12 percent pay increase, but the latter 
was rejected by unions.  While news reports suggest that Air Jamaica 
is planning to shed positions, it is unrelated to the global 
recession, as new Air Jamaica President Bruce Nobles already had 
told emboffs that the airline was planning to cut loss making routes 
in its bid to restructure the airline for divestment.  However, the 
telecoms firm, Digicel, apparently smarting from the drying up of 
the credit it depends on to fund its aggressive expansion program, 
has announced its intention to offer an attractive voluntary 
redundancy package to 10 percent of its workforce. 
 
Comment 
 
KINGSTON 00000045  004 OF 004 
 
 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Like most developing countries, Jamaica has not escaped 
the contagion effects of the global financial meltdown.  Nowhere has 
the impact been more severe than in the country's foreign exchange 
market, with the local currency continuing on its downward spiral. 
And with the central bank and the government aware of the 
deleterious effect on the socio-economic landscape, the central bank 
has been forced to implement draconian measures.  But these 
corrective measures come with their own set of problems, especially 
for the fiscal accounts, which could deteriorate for the remainder 
of the fiscal year.  The extent of this fiscal slippage could well 
set the stage for a downgrade by the international ratings agencies 
later this year.  However, this might not be devastating, as the 
government has already been shut out of the private capital market. 
In this regard, the Golding-led administration must be commended for 
its decision to re-engage the multilaterals before the crisis 
unfolded.  End comment. 
 
HEG