VZCZCXRO8543
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0003/01 0020730
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 020730Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2624
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000003 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/E 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: "NEW SUDAN" WAS A MYTH, SAYS SOUTHERN OPPOSITION LEADER 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Garang Vision of a "New Sudan" is a myth, and 
any Southern leaders who think otherwise are simply deluding 
themselves because Arab resistance to Southern governance is simply 
insurmountable, veteran Southern independence figure Peter Sule told 
poloffs on December 23. Sule also dismissed the notion that Salva 
Kiir would even consider running for national office. With regard to 
the census, Sule stated that a negotiated settlement will be 
necessary to resolve any disputed results, because calls for a new 
census would only serve to delay elections and ultimately, the 
referendum. He also stated that unless Southern opposition parties 
receive government funding to travel and campaign in all ten 
Southern states, they cannot compete fairly with the SPLM, which he 
asserted is using government coffers for campaign purposes. Sule 
also expressed concern that the GOSS was inciting tribal conflict in 
his native province of Central Equatoria. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Bio note: Peter Sule is a member of the National Assembly 
and Chairman of the United Democratic Front (UDF), a Southern 
opposition party. He belongs to the influential Bari tribe, and has 
a long history of involvement in the South Sudan independence 
movement, dating back to the 1970s when he led the Immatong 
Liberation Front (ILF). The ILF later merged with the SPLM/A Nasir 
Faction in 1991 to become the South Sudan Independence Movement 
(SSIM), and in 1999 became the United Democratic Salvation Front 
(UDSF). He became UDSF's Chairman after Dr. Riek Machar left the 
movement to rejoin the SPLM/A. In 2003, UDSF changed its name to 
United Democratic Front (UDF). Unlike the SPLM, the UDF "openly 
calls for an independent South Sudan," said Sule. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Sule noted that the SPLM and Southern opposition parties 
had reached consensus that if results of the census indicate that 
South Sudan accounts for less than 30 percent of the population, 
they ought to reject the census and call for another. But he 
expressed concern that a call for a new census would delay elections 
and ultimately the referendum.  Accordingly, he emphasized the need 
for some sort of negotiated outcome. (Note: Sule estimated the 
population of the South to exceed 15 million, claiming that there 
were 4 million Catholics recorded as having been baptized in 
Southern Sudan.  He added that if non-recorded Catholics, Anglicans, 
other Christians, and the South's small Muslim population and those 
with no religious affiliation were also counted, this figure would 
easily exceed 15 million. End Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) Sule stated that his party was in favor of elections as a 
practice of democratic transformation, but was wary of the massive 
logistical and financial challenges to holding elections in the 
South. Even if these were somehow overcome, he expressed grave 
concern that unless funding was provided to enable opposition party 
representatives to travel and campaign in all ten states of South 
Sudan, the SPLM would dominate. "They will be using the national 
coffers for party purposes," he said. "We need a level playing 
field." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Sule was highly doubtful that the SPLM would mount a 
national campaign, or that Salva Kiir would run for national office. 
"He doesn't even like to think about the idea," said Sule, adding 
that it would be a foolhardy thing to do because if and when he 
lost, he would have nothing to show for it. Sule further stated that 
the Garang wing of the SPLM was deluding themselves into thinking 
that a "New Sudan" was possible, noting that while tribalism could 
(with difficulty) be overcome in the South, it was impossible to 
reconcile North-South differences. "If Garang was alive today, he 
would have exercised his powers to the fullest extent until he 
realized he was fighting an uphill battle" against Northerners 
seeking to undermine him, said Sule. "Why bother when you can rule 
the South with no obstacles?" He concluded by saying that the Garang 
wing of the SPLM was simply deluding themselves and wasting valuable 
time and energy on an unattainable goal. "They should instead divert 
their energy to making the South a more inhabitable place," he said. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Sule also expressed concern that the GOSS was inciting 
tribal conflict in the South. "I'm worried about tensions between 
the Dinka and everyone else," he said. As noted, Sule belongs to the 
Bari tribe, and he passed to poloffs an open letter from the Bari 
community to Salva Kiir demanding that the capital of South Sudan be 
relocated from Juba elsewhere. The letter chastises the GOSS for 
failing to provide peace and security in Juba and its environs (to 
which the Bari are indigenous.) It accuses the GOSS of dispossessing 
the Bari of their native lands and resettling large numbers of 
non-native tribes in Central Equatoria as part of a scheme to occupy 
and marginalize native people (Bari complain that even the US-built 
SPLA IGHQ is on stolen land). "For the sake of peace and security in 
Central Equatoria, and to give the citizens of Juba their 
constitutional and natural rights to administer and plan for the 
development of their town and state, we call upon the GOSS to kindly 
 
KHARTOUM 00000003  002 OF 002 
 
 
move out of Juba and relocate to another town or place which will 
then be the new capital of South Sudan," it concludes. Tension 
between the Bari and Dinka was one of several factors that led to 
the collapse of Sudan's last peace accord in 1983 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Sule has the luxury of saying what many in the 
SPLM cannot: that it's inconceivable that Salva Kiir will run for 
the Presidency of Sudan. In his three years as First Vice President 
of the GNU, Kiir has seldom shown a sustained commitment toward 
national issues such as the conflict in Darfur; his primary 
objective in this regard has been to maintain stable relations with 
Khartoum and not infuriate it by "interfering" too much in northern 
issues while zealously protecting the CPA. There is little 
indication that this approach will change in the run-up to 
elections. Indeed, governing the South is a huge challenge in 
itself. The tensions between the Bari and non-indigenous tribes in 
Central Equatoria (such as the politically dominant Dinka), not to 
mention other longstanding tribal rivalries in the South, reflect 
the grave challenges the South will eventually face as an 
independent state without common enemy in Khartoum to unite it. 
 
FERNANDEZ