O 261126Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6974
INFO AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 
CIA WASHINGTON DC
DIA WASHINGTON DC
DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC 0721
USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000179 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019 
TAGS: SNAR DEA EAID ECON PINR PREL PTER AF
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS:  UNODC PREDICTS BIG 
DECREASE IN 2009 POPPY CULTIVATION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons 1.4 (B and D) 
 
SUMMARY: 
 ------- 
 
¶1. (C) According to the head of the UNODC's Kabul office, 
poppy cultivation in Afghanistan will decline by as much as 
30 percent in 2009, and the number of poppy-free provinces 
could rise from 18 to 22.  While market factors are driving 
much of this reduction, Afghan and international incentive 
and enforcement programs also play an important role.  UNODC 
plans to focus its 2009 efforts inside Afghanistan in the 
South and West, and will work to improve counternarcotics 
coordination with other regional actors, including Iran, 
Pakistan, and Russia.  In Kabul, the Afghan government and 
UNODC are seeking financial support to help large numbers of 
heroin addicts living in the old Russian Cultural Center.  If 
UNODC predictions are close to accurate, Afghan poppy 
cultivation will have been reduced by about 45 percent in two 
years.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LESS POPPY IN 2009 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the newly arrived head of the Kabul 
office of the UN Office of Drug Control (UNODC), told 
Ambassador Wood during a January 24 courtesy call that UNODC 
expects Afghan poppy cultivation to drop dramatically in 
¶2009.  Although the UNODC's annual Opium Winter Rapid 
Assessment Survey (ORAS) has not yet been released, Lemahieu 
confirmed that the report will predict an overall reduction 
in poppy cultivation.  Lemahieu said this could be as much as 
thirty percent of the area cultivated in 2008 -- i.e., more 
than 50,000 hectares fewer than last year.  If the ORAS is 
accurate, 2009 will be the second consecutive year in which 
poppy cultivation decreased significantly, as UNODC reported 
a 19 percent reduction in 2008.  This follows record high 
levels of cultivation in 2006 and 2007.  The number of 
provinces considered "poppy free" by the UNODC could rise 
from 18 to 22 this year.  Lemahieu cautioned that, as the 
ORAS is based primarily on interviews with farmers in areas 
accessible to UNODC surveyors, it is not infallible; on the 
other hand, ORAS predictions have often proven relatively 
accurate in the past, he added. 
 
¶3. (C) According to Lemahieu, the anticipated reduction will 
largely be driven by "market factors" such as the high cost 
of wheat and relatively low cost of opium.  He readily 
acknowledged, however, that incentives such as the Good 
Performers' Initiative (GPI) and law enforcement measures, 
including eradication, also play an important role.  In some 
provinces -- such as Nangarhar, Kapisa, Herat, and Badakhshan 
-- "effective eradication" campaigns could be decisive in 
obtaining or maintaining "poppy free" status this year, given 
the relatively small areas of cultivation (usually only a few 
hundred hectares) in these provinces.  Ambassador Wood 
observed that the "nexus" between counterinsurgency and 
counternarcotics is now widely understood, and stressed the 
critical importance of improving security and governance in 
poppy-growing areas.  If farmers don't believe they have a 
choice, he said, then neither carrots nor sticks will have 
much impact on their growing decisions. 
 
MORE REGIONAL COOPERATION 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C)  Lemahieu described several UNODC proposals to improve 
regional counternarcotics cooperation.  Russia, Tajikistan, 
and Turkmenistan all have an interest in combating the 
narcotics trade, and could do more to support international 
efforts in this area.  Iran is also a key player in the 
region, and should be encouraged to play a positive role. 
UNODC, he said, planned to support joint border control 
operations between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, 
coordinated through a regional border control center in 
Nimruz province.  Ambassador Wood made clear that the U.S. 
would not "stand in the way" of such cooperation, and would 
be interested in learning the outcome of the proposed joint 
projects. 
 
¶5. (C) Within Afghanistan, Lemahieu said that UNODC planned 
to concentrate its efforts in the South and West, 
particularly provinces like Nimruz and Herat where the 
coalition presence was relatively small.  He explained that 
UNODC wanted to operate in areas where it could make a "real 
contribution" without being overwhelmed by larger-scale 
actors.  The total UNODC budget for Afghanistan is USD 20 
million.  Ambassador Wood observed that such a division of 
labor was unobjectionable, as long as it did not create the 
impression that UNODC and other actors could not work in the 
same regions.  Lemahieu stressed that he would take care to 
avoid creating such a perception. 
 
PROBLEMS AT RUSSIAN CULTURAL CENTER 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Turning to Kabul, Lemahieu sought U.S. support in 
dealing with the large number of drug addicts congregating at 
the old Russian Cultural Center.  This issue has become a 
concern for the Afghan government, which is worried about the 
security, public health, and public relations aspects of the 
deteriorating situation.  UNODC is working to help the 
Afghans address the issue, but lacks sufficient resources; he 
estimated about USD 40,000 would be needed to properly secure 
the facility and improve treatment for the addicts there in 
the short term.  Lemahieu said the UN, ISAF, international 
agencies, and foreign governments were all being approached 
with requests for financial or material assistance. 
Ambassador Wood expressed doubt regarding the central 
government's short term approach to the problem, and 
suggested that other actors -- such as Russia -- might be 
better placed to support this effort than the U.S. right now. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) The ORAS is an imperfect indicator.  Last year it 
underestimated progress.  If this year's ORAS proves close to 
accurate, however, then the area under poppy cultivation will 
have declined by about 45 percent in two years.  END COMMENT. 
 
WOOD