VZCZCXRO5728
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #0088/01 0131442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 131442Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9190
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000088 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: FDP Keeps Distance from CDU/CSU at Start of Campaign 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  The FDP outlined its national campaign strategy 
January 6 for the September 2009 national elections, but did not 
clearly signal a strong preference for forming a government with the 
CDU/CSU.  While both the CDU/CSU and FDP see each other as preferred 
partners and the FDP is desperate to return to government after over 
a decade in the opposition, the party remains wary of committing to 
a coalition with the CDU/CSU, as it did in the last national 
election.  National leader Guido Westerwelle also laid out his 
foreign policy views, as the FDP would most likely gain the Foreign 
Ministry should it enter the government, expressing doubt about the 
benefits of a missile defense shield in Europe.  The FDP argues that 
the CDU/CSU has raised taxes in the Grand Coalition and that the SPD 
works with the Left Party at the state level, making it is the only 
party that has not broken its word to the voters.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
CDU/CSU-FDP: THE COALITION THAT SHALL NOT BE NAMED 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2.  On January 6, the national Free Democratic Party (FDP -- 
Liberals) held its annual Three Kings Day party convention in 
Stuttgart.  Coming in a year of several state elections, a European 
Parliament election and a national election in September, the 
convention served as the party's initial forum for presenting its 
campaign message.  National chairman Guido Westerwelle predicted 
that the FDP would return to the government for the first time since 
1998 after the September 27 general election, but remained silent 
concerning future coalition preferences.  Before the 2005 general 
election, the FDP agreed on a coalition statement with traditional 
allies -- the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social 
Union (CSU) -- but the parties failed to win a combined majority on 
election day, thereby mooting the statement.  While a CDU/CSU-FDP 
coalition is clearly the FDP's best option to return to government, 
Westerwelle's statement reveals a tactical decision to avoid binding 
the party to its larger allies too early in the campaign.  Several 
party members at the convention told Pol Specialist that no 
coalition statement will be made as long as the CDU/CSU does not 
come out with a clear coalition preference of its own. 
 
¶3.  On the CDU side, Deputy Chairman Roland Koch has taken the lead 
on the issue, as he has no role in the federal government and can 
speak critically of coalition partner the Social Democratic Party 
(SPD).  In a recent interview, he said "the Grand Coalition is 
exhausted... The CDU and the SPD are antagonists, not partners." 
(Note: Koch also faces reelection as Hesse Minister President on 
January 18 and has said he will only govern with the FDP in the 
state.  End Note.)  CSU chairman Horst Seehofer initially argued for 
more caution suggesting that the parties overplayed their hand in 
2005 with the coalition agreement, but reversed his position 
following the FDP convention and now recommends a CDU/CSU-FDP 
coalition statement.  Other voices in the CDU have suggested 
pursuing a coalition statement again in order to make the party's 
position clear to the voters and it may be only a matter of time 
until the CDU reaches out more formally to the FDP.  The most recent 
national polls put the CDU/CSU at 37% and the FDP at 12%, meaning 
that a combined majority is in reach, but not guaranteed. 
 
FDP: OUR WORD IS GOOD 
--------------------- 
 
¶4.  Westerwelle differentiated the FDP from other parties, attacking 
the CDU/CSU for failures in its governing Grand Coalition with the 
SPD.  He argued that the Grand Coalition failed to prepare in good 
economic times for the current hard times and raised taxes, which 
the CDU/CSU had promised not to do.  He also highlighted improving 
education, ensuring data protection and lowering taxes for medium 
and small income families as core issues for the FDP.  CDU/CSU plans 
for a post election tax cut remain vague especially in light of the 
ballooning deficit caused by the economic crisis.  The CDU/CSU 
clearly pursues a different policy from the FDP on data protection, 
i.e. one that is less protective of the individual than that of the 
FDP. 
 
¶5.  The FDP saved its harshest criticism for the SPD, making it 
clear that it would be much more difficult for the FDP to enter a 
SPD-led government.  General Secretary Dirk Niebel attacked the SPD 
and the Green Party for entertaining cooperation with the Left Party 
at the state level (most notably in Hesse) saying "We did not fight 
for German unification to bring communists and socialists back into 
power with a red-red-green (SPD-Left-Greens) coalition."  Like 
Westerwelle, Niebel emphasized the importance of bringing the FDP 
back into power to prevent a drift to the left in German politics. 
The party has adopted the slogan "Our word is good" suggesting that 
all other parties have gone back on promises to the voters. 
 
¶6.  Westerwelle also addressed foreign policy issues, since the 
party would most likely gain the Foreign Ministry if it entered the 
government and Westerwelle would be the most likely candidate for 
minister.  (Note: the junior coalition partner traditionally takes 
 
FRANKFURT 00000088  002 OF 002 
 
 
the Foreign Ministry in Germany.  End Note.)  He advocated a policy 
focusing on disarmament (a traditional FDP cause), and stressed 
political over military solutions to global problems.  He expressed 
doubts about plans to build a missile defense shield in Poland and 
the Czech Republic saying the system would divide Europe and unleash 
a new arms race. 
 
¶7.  Comment: Having spent over ten years in opposition, the FDP is 
desperate to return to government and otherwise may face growing 
irrelevance in the political spectrum.  Westerwelle's own political 
star would diminish as well, although he has achieved some wins for 
the party at the state level since becoming chairman in 2001 and has 
few rivals in the party.  The party has so far proceeded with 
caution, avoiding the perceived mistakes of 2005, and leaving itself 
the option of conducting an independent campaign, critical of all 
parties.  Despite this tactical move, the party clearly sees a 
coalition with the CDU/CSU as its best bet to return to power.  End 
Comment. 
 
¶8.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL