VZCZCXRO0575
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #0167/01 0201115
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201115Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9343
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000167 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Hesse Election: CDU Stays on with FDP's Help, SPD in 
Freefall 
 
REF:  Frankfurt 0025 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  Summary: The CDU gained only a marginal victory out of the SPD's 
disastrous loss in the Hesse election as swing voters gravitated 
toward smaller parties.  CDU Minister President Roland Koch will 
stay on, but must now share power with the FDP.  The CDU-FDP 
government will also end the Grand Coalition's majority in the 
Bundesrat, forcing the national government to pay more attention to 
the concerns of the FDP.  National SPD leaders attempted to diminish 
the wider significance of the local debacle, where the party 
alienated voters through its failed attempts to govern with the help 
of the Left Party.  End Summary. 
 
CDU Back in Business 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  In the January 18 Hesse election, the Christian Democratic Union 
(CDU) came out ahead with 37.2% of the vote (up 0.4% from the 
January 2008 election), followed by the Social Democratic Party 
(SPD) with 23.7% (down 13%), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 
16.2% (up 6.8 %), the Greens with 13.7% (up 6.2 %) and the Left 
Party with 5.4% (up 0.3 %).  Voter turnout was 61%, a historic low 
and 3.3% less than in 2008.  A senior aide to CDU Minister President 
Roland Koch told Pol Off that he expects CDU-FDP coalition talks to 
be concluded before the first session of the new parliament on 
February 5, although the FDP is now likely to demand three 
ministries instead of two with its better than expected result.  The 
new coalition will end the CDU's caretaker government, which stayed 
on in power after the previous election yielded no new government. 
 
¶3.  The CDU's failure to gain ground was the surprise of the night 
as recent polls had all indicated the party would do 3-4% better 
than it did, but those gains instead went to the FDP and Greens. 
The often polarizing and outspoken Koch, who has been Minister 
President since 1999, ran an uncharacteristically subdued campaign 
promoting his party's competency in difficult economic times, but 
failed to capitalize on the SPD's loss.  There are unsubstantiated 
rumors that Koch will move up to the federal level as Economics or 
Finance Minister should the CDU remain in the government after the 
September election, but Koch has so far expressed a desire to remain 
Hesse's Minister President. 
 
FDP Riding High 
--------------- 
 
¶4.  A CDU-FDP coalition in Hesse will end the Grand Coalition's 
current majority in the federal upper chamber of parliament, the 
Bundesrat, as the CDU will now have to share Hesse's five votes with 
the FDP.  The FDP will gain a blocking minority, but national FDP 
Chairman Guido Westerwelle was quick to say that his party would 
"play a constructive role in the Bundesrat."  He has called for 
closer consultation with Chancellor Merkel on the FDP's concerns. 
The party may look to implement changes in the federal government's 
second fiscal stimulus package, which has not yet passed in either 
chamber.  Having also entered the government in Bavaria, the FDP now 
has two early successes to build on.  The FDP's win also gives 
Federal President Horst Koehler the necessary votes in the Federal 
Assembly to be reelected this year. 
 
SPD Searches for the Bottom 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  The SPD's showing was its worst in the state in the post-war era 
and an epic collapse from its near win one year ago.  Voters voiced 
clear dissatisfaction with the party which unsuccessfully attempted 
to unseat Koch's caretaker government twice in the last year by 
forming a minority government with the Greens supported by the Left 
Party.  After being stymied by dissent from its own members, the SPD 
reluctantly voted with the other parties for a new election.  The 
SPD ran a doomed campaign, unable to distance itself from 
Chairperson Andrea Ypsilanti's controversial choice to work with the 
Left Party.  Ypsilanti resigned as chairperson and caucus chief on 
election night, all but ending her political career. 
 
¶6.  Both the Greens and the Left Party emerged from the controversy 
much better off: the Greens attracted former SPD voters, and the 
Left cemented its presence in Hesse by entering the parliament for a 
second time.  National SPD Chairman Franz Muentefering said the 
result was "no index for anything on the national level."  However, 
the national party's similarly low poll numbers suggest that the 
same tension between its left and conservative wings over issues 
such as how to deal with the Left Party remains a concern for 
voters. 
 
¶7.  Comment: While high in drama, the election in Hesse was only a 
minimal boost for the CDU at the start of Germany's super-election 
year.  Local concerns such as Koch's divisive personality and 
Ypsilanti's failed power grab appeared to play the decisive role in 
 
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the mind of voters, rather than national issues.  While the SPD 
faces a much tougher road ahead in the national campaign, the CDU is 
also not certain that it will be able to end the Grand Coalition and 
govern with the FDP after the federal election. 
 
¶8.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL