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DE RUEHDU #0008/01 0151619
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151619Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1383
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0756

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000008 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: LACK OF CLEAR STRATEGY MAY DASH IFP LEADERS' CONFIDENCE 
 
DURBAN 00000008  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary: Senior Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leaders 
provided insight into the party's campaign strategy and 
prospects during a meeting with the Consul General, Poloff, and 
Pon-Econ Assistant on January 13.  Provincial Secretary 
Bonginkosi Buthelezi and Provincial Treasurer Narend Singh 
discussed the party's standing in the province and the general 
state of affairs.  They noted that the party hopes to win 51 
percent of the vote in KwaZulu Natal, but admitted the IFP is 
facing some serious challenges.  End summary. 
 
IFP Leaders Discuss Agenda, Challenges 
 
¶2. (U)  IFP provincial leaders Bonginkosi Buthelezi and Narend 
Singh discussed the party's agenda and prospects during a 
meeting with the Consul General, Poloff, and Pol-Econ Assistant 
on January 13.  Buthelezi and Singh began the meeting by noting 
that the IFP's election manifesto launch would be in Soweto on 
January 25, followed by a launch on February 14 in KwaZulu 
Natal.  They noted the party would focus on key issues such as 
unemployment, education, and health, but that it is doing things 
differently for this election than for previous polls.  It will, 
for example, make a more concerted effort to target youth. 
Also, unveiling the IFP's provincial premier candidate -- the 
IFP's national chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi -- before the 
election was part of this strategy and they acknowledged that 
she was a risky choice.  They are hoping the party's focus on 
key issues and its new strategy will help the party achieve its 
goal of 51 percent electoral support in the province; they 
acknowledged that they would be happy with between 43 and 48 
percent, and are confident the party will increase its seats in 
the National Assembly. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Neither leader expressed a clear way forward for the 
party to achieve its goals and could not boil their agenda down 
into short answers.  (Note:  Buthelezi and Singh passed out 
copies of the party's draft political program, but did not 
elaborate on items in the document.  End Note.)   Moreover, 
despite their confidence both leaders acknowledged there are 
serious challenges facing the IFP.  First, they noted that 
funding is the biggest problem the party is facing as it 
campaigns for the election, and accused the ANC of using state 
machinery to support its own campaign.  They raised a concern 
about the unbalanced distribution of resources -- the funding 
for political parties -- but welcomed the provincial 
legislature's decision to avail R20 million (USD 2 million) for 
party funding for the election. Second, they acknowledged that 
the "Zuma (African National Congress President Jacob Zuma) 
factor" is a reality in the province and said they are devising 
strategies to counter it.  However, the National Prosecuting 
Authority's pursuit of Zuma on charges of corruption, fraud, 
racketeering, and money laundering is giving him more sympathy 
from voters, they observed.  Third, they said municipal IFP 
leaders' poor performances have had a negative impact.  Failure 
to deliver is one of the reasons the IFP struggled in the 2004 
election.  Finally, many political analysts and pundits have 
observed that the lack of a clear succession plan has hurt the 
IFP.  When asked whether there is a succession plan, Buthelezi 
and Singh admitted IFP leader Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi may 
step aside after the election and focus on his role as a 
traditional leader. 
 
IFP Leaders Speak to Intra-Party Cooperation 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Buthelezi and Singh noted the IFP is open to working 
with other parties on key issues, and possibly down the line, 
working in coalitions.  (Note:  Singh conceded that the IFP's 
decision to work with the Democratic Alliance in 2004 was 
ill-advised.  End Note.)  They confirmed that the IFP has held 
bilateral talks with the African National Congress (ANC) to deal 
with issues causing tension in the province such as street name 
changes and the ANC's disciplinary steps toward IFP members of 
legislature.  They noted that the meetings with the ANC have 
been positive and judge that relations with the ANC at the 
national level are much better compared to what is happening 
provincially.  (Note:  Buthelezi and Singh said that the IFP is 
prepared to govern with the ANC depending on the election 
outcome.  End Note.)  They also believe that the new leader of 
the ANC in KwaZulu Natal, Zweli Mkhize, will help improve 
relations between the two parties, given his more collaborative 
style of leadership 
 
¶5. (U)  Buthelezi and Singh related that the IFP has met with 
other opposition parties, including Democratic Alliance and the 
United Democratic Movement, to discuss issues of common 
interest.  However, they indicated that they will not be forming 
alliances before the elections and that any partnerships would 
be formed after the election.  They stated the reason the IFP is 
 
DURBAN 00000008  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
unwilling to form partnerships is because they think there might 
be no outright winner.  Buthelezi and Singh asserted that the 
Congress of the People (COPE) will erase some of the ANC's 
electoral support in the province and that the party may capture 
at least 2 seats from the ANC.  However, they believe that COPE 
will not affect the IFP. 
 
Comment 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Buthelezi and Singh's insights into the IFP's 
electoral chances in the face of several challenges are useful 
to understanding the political dynamic in KwaZulu Natal.  They 
both assessed that the environment in the province is conducive 
for a free and fair election here.  While the IFP is confident 
about its chances in the province, they appear to lack a clear 
strategy on how to achieve a favorable outcome.  Even without a 
clear strategy, however, Buthelezi and Singh's acknowledgement 
that the IFP would be willing to work with other parties on key 
issues and perhaps in coalitions means the party will remain a 
player if it fails to meet its electoral goals. 
DERDERIAN