VZCZCXRO7850
RR RUEHBZ RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDU #0007/01 0151556
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151556Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1381
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0754

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000007 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: IFP YOUTH PRESIDENT HOPEFUL ABOUT PARTY'S CHANCES, BUT 
CHALLENGES REMAIN 
 
DURBAN 00000007  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) Youth Brigade 
President Pat Lebenya-Ntanzi believes her party can take back 
the Kwa-Zulu Natal provincial government and keep the African 
National Congress (ANC) from winning a two-thirds majority 
nationally.  She asserted that the formation of the Congress of 
the People (COPE) would do more to hurt the ANC than hamper the 
IFP and said her party's new campaigning techniques would be 
successful when she met with visiting Pretoria Poloff and 
Pol/Econ Assistant on January 14.  Her judgments may overstate 
the strength of the IFP in the province, but her observations 
underscored her good grasp of the political landscape in South 
Africa.  End Summary. 
 
 "We Are Ready to Take Back KZN" 
 
¶2. (U)  Lebenya-Ntanzi met with visiting Pretoria Poloff and 
Pol/Econ Assistant on January 14.  She began the discussion by 
saying that the IFP is expanding provincially and nationally. 
She said, "We are poised to take back the province and keep the 
ANC from winning a two-thirds majority."  She noted that the 
party's campaign for the election began in 2007 and that this 
election marks the first time in the party's history that it 
announced its provincial premier candidate -- the IFP's national 
chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi -- before voting takes place. 
The party now has 200 youth branches across the country, but she 
admitted it only has branches in six of the nine provinces. 
Part of the IFP's strategy for expansion across the country 
includes recruiting at high schools (for the first time) and at 
universities.  She said the youth brigade is now open for 
members between the ages of 14 and 35 whereas before it was open 
for members between 18 and 40.  When asked how the IFP was 
reaching its target demographic, she said it was relying on text 
messages.  (Note:  She said the party is not yet on 
facebook.com, which is where COPE is said to be drawing members. 
 End Note.) 
 
IFP Identifies Core Campaign Issues . . . 
 
¶3. (U)  Lebenya-Ntanzi said the party's core campaign themes 
will resonate with the public.  She noted that the party will 
promote programs that reduce unemployment, improve the quality 
of education, and tackle HIV.  She called the unemployment rate 
in this country "unacceptable."  She noted that the government's 
Outcomes Based Education program is unpopular in the province 
because teachers no longer know what is expected of them.  She 
said the party wants to find ways of tackling HIV that do not 
include creating a developmental, welfare state.  She expressed 
confidence that the IFP could deliver on these themes better 
than the ANC and that voters would recognize this about the 
party. 
 
. . . While Many Longstanding Problems Remain 
 
¶4. (U)  Lebenya-Ntanzi admitted that IFP faces many of the same 
problems that have plagued the party for years.  She said, "We 
cannot attract young whites or Indians...that remains a 
challenge."  She noted that succession within the party is not 
transparent and that even though the party successfully listed 
its provincial and national candidates the political infighting 
behind the process was "ugly."  She expressed concern that the 
party's leadership failed to understand just how "ugly" the list 
process was because many of them had shut out those within the 
party with leadership aspirations.  (Note:  At one point she 
said that party elders often refer to those within the youth 
brigade as "kids always asking for things."  End Note.)  She 
related that Mangosuthu Buthelezi is "not ready to leave...and 
it is his right to retain power if he chooses after the 
election."  At one point, she declared that the IFP wants to win 
10 percent of the vote nationally, but it was clear by how she 
mentioned this and how she emphasized winning the party's goal 
of winning the province and keeping the ANC from gaining an 
outright majority that achieving such a percentage may be 
difficult. 
 
On the ANC and COPE 
 
¶5. (U)  Lebenya-Ntanzi said that the IFP was not worried about 
"Zuma factor" or the "COPE factor" undermining the party's 
chances in the province.  She said, "Zuma has been known for a 
long time in this province.  It is not like he is something new 
for voters here."  She asserted that the youth are not drawn to 
Zuma or the ANC's agenda and cited how IFP councilors run the 
ANC President's home ward and district in KwaZulu Natal.  (Note: 
 She provided an alternative view of ANC Youth League President 
Julius Malema, noting he "is a really good leader to work with." 
 She said the ANC Youth League and the IFP Youth Brigade work 
well together on a national level because of Malema's 
 
DURBAN 00000007  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
willingness to listen to IFP concerns.  End Note.) 
Lebenya-Ntanzi also noted that the IFP is unconcerned about the 
"COPE factor" because so far the new party is "only hurting the 
ANC and the Democratic Alliance."  She noted that many COPE 
leaders may return to the ANC after the election if the new 
party fails to deliver a solid showing.  She thought it would be 
surprising if COPE even gets two seats in the province. 
 
Comment 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Lebenya-Ntanzi's comments are helpful because they 
provide an IFP youth's perspective on the party's agenda--and 
future--and on the political landscape in South Africa.  Her 
judgments may overstate the strength of the IFP in the province 
as it could prove difficult for the party to win control here by 
campaigning against a Zuma-led ANC, but helping keep the ANC 
from winning a two-thirds majority seems possible, and her 
observations underscored her good grasp of the political scene 
in South Africa. 
DERDERIAN