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DE RUEHRY #0001/01 0021236
ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY AD159E23 MSI6826-695)
P 021236Z JAN 09 CORRECTED COPY MRN
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3295
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000001 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY MRN 000001 VICE 000822 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2019 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNION LEADER SAYS CONSITUTION FIRST, THEN ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Now that the long anticipated coup has 
taken place, union leader Rabiatou is looking to create an 
effective civilian coalition that can check the military 
junta's power until elections can be organized.  However, 
Rabiatou appears to be in no hurry to get to elections, 
arguing that the first priority should be to rewrite the 
Guinean constitution.  She acknowledged international 
condemnations of the coup, but pleaded for strong 
international leadership in the months ahead in order to help 
Guinea emerge from its political and social crisis, and to 
"avoid the mistakes of the past."  Although Rabiatou talked 
about civil unity, this is a goal that has proven elusive in 
the past due to political infighting, personal ambitions, 
corruption, and manipulations based on ethnic ties.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Poloff met with Rabiatou Serah Diallo, co-chair of 
the Unions Intersyndicale, an umbrella coalition of Guinea's 
labor unions, on December 31.  Shortly after the December 23 
coup, the unions publicly accepted the installation of the 
Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) and expressed 
their willingness to work with the new government in order to 
organize elections and a peaceful transition to civilian 
rule.  One of the CNDD's first acts was to ban all political 
and union activity, a decree that has not yet been officially 
lifted.  In past meetings with Poloff, Rabiatou has 
repeatedly advocated in favor of a coup d'etat as the 
country's only available mechanism for effecting a peaceful 
political transition. 
 
------------------------------- 
COUP WAS EXPECTED AND NECESSARY 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Rabiatou asserted that the coup was exactly what the 
Guinean population had been expecting.  "If the military had 
not immediately stepped in to take power, we would have had 
an ethnic conflict," she said.  Rabiatou told Poloff that the 
international condemnations were also expected, but that she 
hopes that bilateral partners will be flexible in terms of 
their policies as the new government moves forward.  "The 
Guinean case is special and everyone needs to take that into 
consideration," she said.  Rabiatou argued that any 
international sanctions would have no impact on the 
government itself, but only penalize the general population 
"who have already suffered enough." 
 
¶4.  (C) According to Rabiatou, it is not yet apparent that 
the power struggle is over.  She said that there are several 
groups actively considering a counter-coup.  "International 
sanctions would only empower these groups, leaving us to go 
from coup to coup...and I do not know where we will end up if 
that is the case," she told Poloff.  Later in the discussion, 
Rabiatou said that no one is sure who is propping up the 
CNDD, but said that former President Conte's family may be 
providing support behind the scenes.  Again mentioning the 
other groups maneuvering for power, Rabiatou said that 
opposition leader Alpha Conde is backing one of these groups. 
 (COMMENT.  Alpha Conde heads the Rally for the Guinean 
People political party, which is predominantly Malinke.  END 
COMMENT). 
 
-------------------------------------- 
URGING BROADER CIVILIAN REPRESENTATION 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Commenting on union discussions with the CNDD, 
Rabiatou said that the unions are urging the CNDD to broaden 
its representation by enlarging the Council with a higher 
number of civilian members.  She said that the unions had met 
with the CNDD on December 30 and asserted that the Council 
"must be a neutral organ of transition." 
 
--------------------------------- 
CONSITUTION FIRST, THEN ELECTIONS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Rabiatou emphasized that before the country can 
move toward elections, it is imperative that Guineans draft a 
new constitution.  "We need to revise the constitution and 
then hold a national referendum.  After we do that, we can 
hold all the elections at the same time, presidential, 
legislative, and local," she said.  According to Rabiatou, if 
the Conte regime were still in place, the elections "would 
have never happened on May 31."  She told Poloff that 
progress was slow because no one was truly committed to 
holding elections.  Rabiatou said that the people no longer 
have confidence in any of their political leaders, saying 
----------------------------- 
HELPING THE CNDD MOVE FORWARD 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) At the same time, Rabiatou said that the 
international community should be focused on "reinforcing the 
CNDD."  She said that the new government needs to complete 
financial audits in order to weed out corrupt former 
officials.  "We need a complete moral investigation...we need 
to help citizens make a good choice," she said.  Rabiatou 
emphasized that failure to address the corruption and 
constitutional issues would leave the country in the same 
situation it has been for the last fifty years, regardless of 
whether or not elections move forward. 
 
¶8.  (C) Rabiatou said that she is concerned about the CNDD 
leadership, and that only broader civil representation and 
assistance from the international donor community could 
neutralize the military junta.  She said that President 
Camara has been making many promises, but that some of his 
actions to date contradict his political statements.  She 
pointed out that the CNDD nominated the prime minister on 
December 29, claiming that the PM would be the head of 
government with all the powers of the position, but then 
began nominating ministers before the new PM's plane had even 
landed in country.  (COMMENT.  The only ministers who have 
been officially named are the ministers of defense and 
security, both of which are temporary appointments.  Two 
other ministers were named on December 29, including the 
minister of finance, but later retractions leave some doubt 
as to whether other appointments were or were not made.  END 
COMMENT). 
 
----------------------------- 
REACHING OUT TO CIVIL SOCIETY 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) When asked about the unions' political strategy, 
Rabiatou said that the labor unions had already established 
three commissions within their ranks, which will focus on 
social issues, the constitution, and public relations.  "The 
CNDD cannot suspend union activities...we are not going to 
just sit on our hands; if necessary, we will denounce the 
government," she said. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Rabiatou said that the unions have also been 
meeting with other civil society leaders, including 
opposition political parties.  She claims that all agree that 
the constitution needs to be amended.  In addition, Rabiatou 
said she is advocating in favor of reducing the number of 
political parties from the more than 50 currently, to either 
two or four parties.  "We cannot have just three parties 
because then they will only be ethnic, representing the 
Malinkes, Soussous, and Peuhls; two or four parties forces 
ethnic groups to build interethnic coalitions," she told 
Poloff.  Rabiatou said that many leaders are in favor of this 
proposal, including opposition leaders Sidya Toure and Cellou 
Diallo.  However, she said that although Alpha Conde agrees, 
he thinks the timing is wrong because political parties are 
not yet ready to consolidate. 
 
-------------------------------- 
FAVORABLE REACTION TO THE NEW PM 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) When asked about the new prime minister, Rabiatou 
said that Kabine Komara is a good choice, and that he was one 
of the names the unions put forward to lead the consensus 
government after the 2007 labor strikes.  "We cannot confirm 
his sincerity...we need to be cautious, but we are content 
with the decision," she said. 
 
---------------------------- 
CALLING ON THE "THIRD FORCE" 
---------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Making a case for international leadership, 
Rabiatou said that Guineans need "a third force" in order to 
emerge from the political and social crisis of the last fifty 
years.  She noted that although the CNDD seems to be saying 
all the right things, so did former President Conte in 1984. 
Rabiatou added that Conte had effectively "nourished the 
roots of conflict," referring to manipulations based on money 
and ethnicity, and that Guinea is still very much in danger 
of descending into violent conflict.  "I am afraid," she told 
Poloff. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13.  (C) Although she clearly had misgivings about the new 
government, Rabiatou stressed that the coup was what was 
needed to move the country forward.  She seemed to be 
counting on international pressure to reinforce civilian 
efforts to keep the CNDD from reneging on its promise to cede 
power to a democratically elected civilian government. 
However, Rabiatou's comments suggest that she is no hurry to 
have elections.  Her priority is to "fix" the constitution in 
order to avoid electing a new government that will only 
perpetuate the problems of the past.  Part of this approach 
may stem from the unions' distrust of the opposition 
political parties, which is tied to the unions' growing 
political influence over the past few years, and union 
demands to change the constitution to allow independent 
candidates to run in elections. 
 
¶14.  (C) Rabiatou seemed focused on trying to unify various 
civil society actors, including opposition political leaders, 
in order to provide an effective civil balance to the 
military junta.  However, personal political ambitions, 
money, and ethnicity have thwarted similar efforts in the 
past.  With power at stake, these problems may continue to 
play a divisive role, and may hinder civil society efforts to 
coalesce in a meaningful way.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC