O 021325Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9100
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AMCONSUL CHENNAI 
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HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
USMISSION GENEVA 
DIA WASHINGTON DC
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
USEU BRUSSELS

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000003 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018 
TAGS: PREF MOPS PGOV CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ARMY CAPTURES KILINOCHCHI; LTTE ANSWERS 
WITH ATTACK ON AIR FORCE HEADQUARTERS 
 
REF: A. 07 COLOMBO 1161 
     ¶B. 07 COLOMBO 1079 
     ¶C. 07 COLOMBO 1042 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On the afternoon of January 2, President 
Mahinda Rajapaksa announced the much-delayed capture of 
Kilinochchi on state television.  The fall of the LTTE's 
administrative capital follows a series of victories for the 
government on the Northern battlefield in the fall and early 
winter of 2008.  Just an hour after the announcement, a 
suicide bomber killed an as-yet undetermined number of people 
outside the headquarters of the Sri Lankan Air Force in 
downtown Colombo.  Early reports indicated at least two dead 
and as many as 30 injured.  The loss of the LTTE's former 
capital Kilinochchi is a major defeat for the LTTE who will 
continue to fight on, and a political boon to the President 
who may leverage the victory to call for general elections in 
the coming months.  The GSL has predicted the fall of 
Kilinochchi months ago but the LTTE mounted a stout defense. 
As government forces press in on the Tigers' remaining areas 
of control, we expect further guerilla attacks on military 
and economic targets in the South.  Without a political 
solution that meets Tamil aspirations, however, we do not 
believe the GSL will be able to put an end to Sri Lanka's 25 
year old conflict, because the LTTE will continue to be able 
to draw on funding from the Tamil diaspora and support within 
Sri Lanka. 
 
President Announces Victory 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) President Rajapaksa went on national television on 
the afternoon of January 2 to announce that the Sri Lankan 
Army had captured Kilinochchi, the administrative capital of 
the LTTE to an assembled group of Government Ministers, 
Members of Parliament and military officials.  The President 
urged Sri Lankans not to view the fall of the LTTE stronghold 
as a victory of the Sinhalese over the Tamils or of the South 
over the North but as a victory against terrorism.  Rajapaksa 
praised the government forces and urged the remaining LTTE 
cadres to surrender.  The President went on to pledge to meet 
the needs of the people of the North for generations to come. 
 He asked the people of the country to give him a little more 
time to capture Mullaitivu, the last major town the Tigers 
control.  Following the President's remarks, Army Commander 
Sarath Fonseka outlined the military's gains.  Fonseka said 
that only a 40 by 40 kilometer strip of territory remains to 
be liberated.  The President made no mention of the need for 
a political solution. 
 
¶3. (C) The fall of Kilinochchi follows a series significant 
military victories over the course the autumn and early 
winter of 2008 that saw the government advance up the 
Northwestern coast of the island culminating in the capture 
of Pooneryn on November 17 (ref C).  The Army then shifted 
east, capturing the important crossroads town of Paranthan 
just north of Kilinochchi on January 1.  Embassy contacts 
reported that just prior to the fall of Paranthan, LTTE 
fighters departed Kilinochchi to retreat to positions further 
east.  The Army now stands poised to cut off supply lines to 
the LTTE fighters in and north of Elephant Pass and make a 
concerted push on Mullaitivu from both the south and west. 
 
LTTE Pulls Out Its Fighters 
as Defeat Becomes Imminent 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The LTTE retreat from Kilinochchi followed their 
current strategy of engaging government forces only to 
withdraw after defeat became imminent.  After intense 
fighting in recent weeks on the outskirts of Kilinochchi and 
a failed LTTE counterattack to halt the government's advance 
on Paranthan from Pooneryn, the Tigers withdrew their 
fighters from Kilinochchi during the night of December 31. 
 
With the entire Northwestern coast cut off, the loss of his 
administrative capital and calls on India to intervene 
falling short (ref B), Prabhkaran will not be able to hide 
the importance of Kilinochchi's loss to the remaining 
population of the Vanni or his all-important supporters in 
the diaspora.  Little space is now left in the areas under 
LTTE control for future "strategic withdrawals" as the Tigers 
hope the worldwide economic crisis will undermine the GSL's 
ability to fund the war and destroy its strong political 
position with the Sinhalese public. 
 
A Late New Year's Present for Rajapaksa 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) As left over New Year's fireworks went off throughout 
Colombo in celebration, President Rajapaksa's public 
announcement of Kilinochchi's capture strengthened his 
political position despite concerns about the budget deficit 
and the falling rupee.  With provincial council elections due 
in mid-February, opposition contacts indicated that if the 
government chose to leverage the victory for political gain, 
snap general (e.g. parliamentary) elections might be called 
in April.  (Waiting until April would guarantee generous 
state pensions to any serving Members of Parliament who lost 
their seat in the new election.) 
 
IDPs Remain an Embassy Concern 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Conditions for the 230,000 or more 
internally-displaced persons still living in the 
Tiger-controlled Vanni are likely to worsen in the coming 
weeks as government advances continue to encroach on areas 
where they have congregated.  Post will continue to urge the 
government to allow UN and ICRC access to the IDP population 
and ensure that their basic needs are met. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Embassy recommends the following if-asked press 
guidance. 
 
Begin Text 
 
The United States hopes that the military advances made by 
Government forces in recent months, including today's 
(apparent) recapturing of Kilinochchi, will help hasten an 
end to the 25-year old conflict.  The United States continues 
to believe that the most important step the Government should 
take to end the conflict is a political solution that meets 
the aspirations of Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalese.  Without a 
political solution that will enable the Government to win the 
confidence of Tamils both in Sri Lanka and those that fund 
the LTTE from the diaspora, a conclusive military victory 
will be very difficult. 
 
End Text 
 
¶7. (C) COMMENT:  In recent interviews with Reuters and the 
BBC (ref A) LTTE Political Wing Chief Nadesan previewed LTTE 
guerilla attacks that he categorized as "defensive".  In 
fact, just an hour after the President's address the 
headquarters of the Sri Lankan Air Force in downtown Colombo 
was bombed.  Early reports indicated two deaths and as many 
as 30 civilians were injured in the attack.  We expect 
similar incidents in the future as government forces press in 
on the Tigers in the North.  While the government's victory 
in Kilinochchi is significant, the LTTE still retains the 
capability to inflict casualties at the front and throughout 
the country.  In fact, Army Commander Fonseka indicated in 
the summer of 2008 that even if the government was able to 
secure the entire Vanni the LTTE could easily go underground 
with a residual force of 1000 and conduct hit and run attacks 
on the military for several years as it attempted to secure 
the Vanni.  The Tigers' ability to transform themselves into 
an underground insurgent movement in the areas they formerly 
controlled is a central reason we will continue to press the 
 
government to engage on a political track.  Without political 
negotiations with members of the Tamil community that enjoy 
respect and legitimacy, a lasting solution to Sri Lanka's 25 
years old conflict will prove elusive, because the LTTE will 
continue to be able to draw on funding from the Tamil 
diaspora and support within Sri Lanka.  End Comment. 
Blake