VZCZCXRO0459
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0009 0061307
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 061307Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3755
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE AND INR; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM 
STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KBIO HU
SUBJECT: SAY ANYTHING: THE PM'S MIXED MESSAGES 
 
Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
FROM ONE ACCORDING TO HIS ABILITIES; TO EACH ACCORDING TO 
THEIR INTERESTS 
 
¶1.  (C) Prime Minister Gyurcsany continues to calibrate his 
messages at the expense of his credibility.  Throughout the 
past weeks, he has sought to assure the public that Hungary's 
economy has weathered a "foreign attack" and will maintain 
strict "social solidarity."  At the same time, he has worked 
to signal to the diplomatic and business community that 2009 
will mark a "return to reform." 
 
¶2.  (C) He has ended up largely mistrusted by both sides, and 
his recent rebound in the polls is already receding as 
unemployment continues to rise.  As former Minister of 
Economy and SzDSz Parliamentary Faction Leader Janos Koka 
observes, the Prime Minister has been "an inconstant 
reformer" whose statements "cannot be taken at face value." 
"The Prime Minister's conviction is that changes are 
necessary," SzDSz MP Matyas Eorsi concludes, "but his 
commitment is to staying in power." 
 
¶3.  (C) Even within the MSzP's ranks, many are inclined to 
agree.  Indeed, some within the party have concluded that 
Gyurcsany is a mixed messenger.  Sources in and out of 
government tell us that few in the small ) and constantly 
changing - circle around the PM can tell what he really 
believes. 
 
¶4.  (C) It may well be, one contact suggests, that the PM 
really does believe whatever he says ( when he is saying it. 
 Over the course of his mandate, Gyurcsany has generated 
countless policy initiatives.  But he has been unable to 
count on public or Parliamentary support.  As one staffer 
confides, "the PM can convince himself ( but not anyone 
else." 
 
A CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD 
 
¶5.  (C) As a result, Gyurcsany remains trapped in a crossfire 
between the left and the right.  Often denounced as a 
Communist by some, he is clearly regarded with suspicion by 
the Old Guard within the Socialist Party. Despite his 
marriage to a woman whose ancestry is often described as 
"half Bulgarian and all Communist," Gyurcsany is still seen 
by many as "too modern" and is often described by other 
Socialists as "a Free Democrat at heart."  His status as one 
of the hundred richest Hungarians is also often a liability 
in a party which relies increasingly on pensioners and the 
unemployed.  At the same time, it has given him very little 
in common with the investors who fault his government's 
policies for the country's economic straits.  The Prime 
Minister's impromptu remarks regarding "the death of bankers' 
capitalism" haven't helped either. 
 
¶6.  (C) For the opposition, Gyurcsany can do no right. 
Though his tactics have changed ) and will doubtless change 
again - FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban's principal goal of 
removing Gyurcsany has remained constant.  Toward that end, 
we expect that some FIDESZ MPs, including Defense and Law 
Enforcement Committee Chair Janos Lazar, will continue to 
cite the prospect of a "Weimar Hungary" as a real threat. 
Others, meanwhile, will still cast Gyurcsany's "police 
tactics" as proof of his intention to rule "by lies and by 
force."  Given the depth of the antipathy toward Gyurcsany by 
many on the right, we suspect some will have no problem 
believing that he is both too weak and too strong. 
 
THOROUGHLY MODERN FERI 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment: In a country which designates certain 
domestic products as "Hungaricum" and where the opposition 
party emphasizes the need for "Magyarizmus," the Prime 
Minister remains curiously at odds with the national 
stereotype.  Moody but not morose, intelligent but not 
intellectual, Gyurcsany projects enthusiasm ) even 
impulsiveness - to an audience which values introspection to 
the point of inaction.  He is, as one contact observed, "a 
jogger and a blogger in a country which smokes and recites 
epic poetry."  As the parties move quickly toward "campaign 
mode" in preparation for the 2009 European Parliamentary 
Elections, the PM will be under increasing pressure to please 
all the people ... if only rhetorically.  End Comment. 
 
 
Foley