R 151321Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0220
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L WINDHOEK 000407 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV WA
SUBJECT: SIZING UP THE RDP 
 
REF: A. REF A: WINDHOEK 394 
     ¶B. REF B: WINDHOEK 0035 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Dennise Mathieu per 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) 
celebrated its first birthday in November.  The party may be 
new to Namibian politics, but its players are not.  Led by 
former SWAPO stalwarts and well-known personalities elected 
at the party's December 5 congress, the RDP seems poised to 
give the Southwest Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) some 
competition in next year's general and presidential 
elections.  However, it is not yet clear whether the party 
stands for real political and economic change.  End Summary. 
 
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RDP Heads to Court 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Two weeks after the events in Outapi (ref A), the RDP 
was again in the national spotlight when on December 4, hours 
before the opening of its first party congress at the 
Windhoek College of Education (WCE), officials from the 
Ministry of Education informed the RDP that the venue was no 
longer available.  The party claimed it had already paid for 
the conference hall and that 500 delegates from around 
Namibia were on their way to Windhoek.  No reason was given 
for the cancellation, but the RDP did not hesitate to 
publicize its suspicions.  "It is another testimony to 
SWAPO's thuggish methods to stifle democracy in this country, 
and this comes just after the recent incident in Outapi," the 
RDP said in a press release. 
 
¶3. (U) On December 5, the RDP took its complaint to the High 
Court, where the rector of the WCE insisted that the Ministry 
of Education forbade the use of the WCE by political parties. 
 The RDP's attorney refuted this statement, pointing out that 
the SWAPO Youth League had held meetings at the WCE.  The 
Ministry also argued that it had never seen or approved the 
RDP's application to host its event, but the RDP provided a 
letter from the WCE that stated its application had been 
approved.  Acting Judge Johan Swanepol decided in the RDP's 
favor, ordering the WCE to comply with the rental agreement 
and the Ministry of Education to cover the RDP's legal 
expenses for the last-minute trial. 
 
------------------------------- 
Hamutenya Elected RDP President 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Hours later under notable police presence, the RDP 
convoked its congress at the WCE.  Chanting "RDP, Vive!" and 
the party's new slogan "We can do better," the delegates 
celebrated the legal victory and praised the RDP members who 
had confronted SWAPO in Outapi.  Flanked by body guards, 
former Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya gave the opening 
ceremony's keynote address.  (Note: President Nujoma sacked 
Hamutenya in 2004 after he ran for the presidency of SWAPO. 
End Note)  In it, he took numerous shots at SWAPO, making fun 
of the ruling party's claim that its members had been 
provoked in Outapi and during the Tobias Hainyeko campaign 
(ref B) and boasting that SWAPO fears the growing popularity 
of the RDP.  "SWAPO is literally panicking and behaving like 
a wounded lion," Hamutenya claimed.  On the policy side, he 
criticized President Pohamba for failing to address 
corruption and regional development, and he laid out the 
RDP's platform in broad strokes.  He promised the party would 
improve the education system, create jobs, expand the 
economy, rehabilitate public services, and provide better 
health care.  Hamutenya also chided himself and RDP members 
for allowing Namibia to come under "one-party rule." 
 
¶5. (U) In addition to fleshing out its manifesto and campaign 
strategies in closed sessions during the rest of the 
congress, the party also elected new leadership.  Hamutenya 
was chosen as party president; Steve Bezuidenhoudt, a former 
SWAPO member from Keetmanshoop, was elected vice president, 
and Jesaya Nyamu, former Minister of Trade and Industry and 
former Minister of Mines and Energy, was named secretary 
general. 
 
------------------------- 
An Alliance in the Works? 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) In a conversation with Poloff, RDP organizers Libolly 
Haufiku and Norah Appolus predicted that the RDP was on the 
verge of coming of age and becoming a political force with 
which to be reckoned.  Unlike the other opposition parties, 
Appolus remarked, the RDP had representation and functioning 
offices in all 13 districts around the country.  Haufiku 
claimed the party's strength came from its familiarity with 
SWAPO and thus an ability to hone in on its shortcomings.  He 
accused SWAPO's leadership of being autocratic and paranoid. 
In addition to allowing conditions in Namibia to decline, 
SWAPO's tendency to spy on its leadership was costing it 
prominent members, Haufiku theorized.  "Nujoma started 
Mugabe-like undemocratic behavior.  The moment you question 
(the party), you are ostracized and left out of invitations." 
 Haufiku could not estimate the number of RDP members, saying 
that its database of 180,000 members was deceptive, since 
"many of them are underground," but he is convinced the party 
is gaining significant ground, especially with the youth. 
Haufiku and Appolus also outlined RDP's main tasks over the 
next year: expanding its membership, addressing political 
violence, and most difficult-- raising enough funds to 
effectively compete in the elections.  They reiterated 
Hamutenya's party platform, but did not offer details. 
 
¶7. (C) In a separate conversation, Member of Parliament and 
leader of the opposition Republican Party (RP) Henk Mudge 
echoed the RDP's financial concern to Poloff on December 8. 
Mudge, who sat in the front row of the RDP congress, confided 
that he has been talking to his friend Hamutenya about the 
possibility of forming not a coalition, but an alliance. 
Mudge said he has also broached the subject with the 
leadership of a tiny Caprivian political party as well as 
with senior members-- although not necessarily the leaders 
of-- several other opposition parties.  Mudge is confident 
that the RDP will unseat SWAPO's two-thirds majority in the 
National Assembly, but said that an alliance backed by 
significant funding was necessary to take the victory to 
another level, namely for Hamutenya to be elected Namibia's 
next president.  Mudge estimated the RP and RDP would each 
need to raise $700,000 (U.S.) and requested assistance in 
establishing contacts in the U.S. private sector.  Poloff 
explained that the USG could not offer such assistance. 
 
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Commentary 
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¶8. (C) The RDP may be riding high on its recent legal victory 
and its well publicized show-down in Outapi, but the party 
faces a steep uphill battle as it challenges the well-oiled 
SWAPO political machine.  The RDP is unlikely to garner the 
financial resources it needs to match SWAPO's war chest, and 
the majority of Namibians, particularly those outside urban 
centers, still feel strong loyalty to their liberation party, 
SWAPO.  Nevertheless, the RDP seems to have made in-roads in 
attracting new members, particularly the youth.  If allowed 
to freely organize between now and election day, the RDP will 
be able to stay in the public eye and interact with regular 
Namibians around the country.  The latter is especially 
important if the RDP is to become more familiar and a more 
comfortable choice for the populace.  Moreover, if the RDP 
benefits from the assistance of other opposition parties, it 
stands a decent chance of cutting in to SWAPO's majority in 
the National Assembly.  Currently, SWAPO holds 55 of the 72 
seats; thus, the RDP and the other opposition parties would 
need to win seven of those to take away the two-thirds 
majority.  And it may take just such a victory before it is 
evident whether the RDP represents real political and 
economic change or whether a party led by SWAPO defectors 
means more of the same. 
 
 
MATHIEU